The TV money is where this will get interesting and ultimately where I think the P4 runs into issues. If P5 teams start to get relegated to lower tiers with far less money from conferences, that means significant budget shortfalls. A majority of the AD budget doesn't seem to be terribly elastic in the short term so who's going to pick up the bill for the shortfall? The states. And if the states start to feel the pinch of paying for stadium upgrades that the AD can no longer afford, you'd better believe that our government is going to start asking questions. With tax exempt status being such a big stick I don't think they'll let the P4 break away and leave the rest behind as easily as many want to believe.
***Official Big 12 Expansion Thread '16***
- Thread starter cyclones500
- Start date
The TV money is where this will get interesting and ultimately where I think the P4 runs into issues. If P5 teams start to get relegated to lower tiers with far less money from conferences, that means significant budget shortfalls. A majority of the AD budget doesn't seem to be terribly elastic in the short term so who's going to pick up the bill for the shortfall? The states. And if the states start to feel the pinch of paying for stadium upgrades that the AD can no longer afford, you'd better believe that our government is going to start asking questions. With tax exempt status being such a big stick I don't think they'll let the P4 break away and leave the rest behind as easily as many want to believe.
I have always felt that this is driven mostly by the media, who in some cases have their own agenda, particularly ESPN. There is no reason in the world for UT to want this league to dissolve, none, zero. If there is, I like someone to make the case.
OU may leave because, like Missouri, they can make more dough in the SEC. They are not Texas. Ku would leave if anyone would take them, but they won't.
So, it's really down to Oklahoma. And I believe politics in the state would be huge hurdle for them leaving without a home for oSu.
Week 3 Home Attendance for Expansion Candidates:
Cincinnati - 40,015
UConn - 31,036
UCF - 43,197
Tulane - 21,503
SMU - 22,127
Rice - 27,047
BYU - 62,904
Colorado State - 26,718
Big 12 Home Attendance Week 3:
TCU - 45,119 (I don't even think there was 1/3 of that number there after half time)
Oklahoma - 87,979
Kansas State - 50,871
Oklahoma State - 53,514
Texas Tech - 57,515
Cincinnati - 40,015
UConn - 31,036
UCF - 43,197
Tulane - 21,503
SMU - 22,127
Rice - 27,047
BYU - 62,904
Colorado State - 26,718
Big 12 Home Attendance Week 3:
TCU - 45,119 (I don't even think there was 1/3 of that number there after half time)
Oklahoma - 87,979
Kansas State - 50,871
Oklahoma State - 53,514
Texas Tech - 57,515
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thanks. can you add in the big 12 member schools with home games?
also, did WVU or TCU's average go up when they got the golden ticket?
OU has 9 conference championships in football. They probably are a middle of the pack SEC West school. No chance they would have the same level of success in an SEC world.
I see fans on message boards wanting a change. I can see where money would come into play. However the Big 12 is where OU should be.
Nebraska 2.0 is a possibility if they make the jump
I could see Texas' ego pushing them to go independent. They might think that they could really push the Longhorn Network into mainstream distribution by doing so and putting all of their home football/basketball games on that channel (or nearly all, with the ESPN mothership picking up a few marquee match-ups). They would be like Notre Dame if Notre Dame owned NBC.
Texas bailing would surely push OU out. I think they want the Big Ten in order to pretend that they are academically relevant, but I don't see the B1G pulling OSU with them. I could see the SEC adding both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the West, flipping Mizzou to the West, and flipping both Alabama and Auburn to the East.
At that point, the Big 12 is in serious trouble, because everyone would be looking for a way out. I think West Virginia would get in the ACC relatively easily as they have a solid fanbase and success and that conference is slipping in terms of eyeballs, and Texas Tech and perhaps TCU could get into the now Pac-14. Baylor, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State would be the scraps left fighting for Team #16 in the ACC (along with a school like UConn) and praying the Pac-14 wants to be the Pac-16. Advantage KU with the ACC being a basketball-first conference.
So long story short this is how Iowa State ends up in the Pac-16 East along with Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah. *jimlad*
Texas bailing would surely push OU out. I think they want the Big Ten in order to pretend that they are academically relevant, but I don't see the B1G pulling OSU with them. I could see the SEC adding both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in the West, flipping Mizzou to the West, and flipping both Alabama and Auburn to the East.
At that point, the Big 12 is in serious trouble, because everyone would be looking for a way out. I think West Virginia would get in the ACC relatively easily as they have a solid fanbase and success and that conference is slipping in terms of eyeballs, and Texas Tech and perhaps TCU could get into the now Pac-14. Baylor, Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State would be the scraps left fighting for Team #16 in the ACC (along with a school like UConn) and praying the Pac-14 wants to be the Pac-16. Advantage KU with the ACC being a basketball-first conference.
So long story short this is how Iowa State ends up in the Pac-16 East along with Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah. *jimlad*
Texas ego is not a reason. It's completely irrational. They lead the NCAA every year in revenue, sans someone pledging a bunch of dough for construction like aTm did last year. They already have the LHN revenue package. Does anyone think that's going to improve by them going independent? Hell, ESPN would cut and run now if they could.
Average Home Attendance 2008-2011 - 4 years prior to joining Big 12.
West Virginia
2008 - 58,085
2009 - 57,317
2010 - 56,325
2011 - 56,532
TCU
2008 - 30,389
2009 - 38,187
2010 - 42,466
2011 - 33,686* (Stadium improvements took place at the end of 2010 which dropped their max capacity down to 32,000. Construction was completed prior to the 2012 season)
Average Home attendance 2012-2015 - 4 years after joining Big 12
West Virginia
2012 - 55,916
2013 - 52,910
2014 - 56,686
2015 - 54,826
TCU
2012 - 46,047
2013 - 43,598
2014 - 44,719
2015 - 46,767
West Virginia added some luxury boxes in place of stadium seating so their seating capacity is no longer 58,000.
There was a decent sized crowd at the beginning of the game. It was just an awful, miserably hot day with no breeze. A good number of people left at half time (some before) and never went back in, including those in the ISU section. I went back up after halftime while my wife and son stayed down and sat on the concourse floor with other ISU fans. I gave up about midway through the third. We watched the rest of the third from the concourse and then left.
Like jhbtexas, we left our seats in the third quarter and watched for a while in the concourse, and left near the end of the quarter.
A TCU friend of mine who was with us at the game commented that, prior to TV ruling the start times, TCU home games were always at night for games on or before October 15.
Common sense no longer rules. TV does.
A TCU friend of mine who was with us at the game commented that, prior to TV ruling the start times, TCU home games were always at night for games on or before October 15.
Common sense no longer rules. TV does.
This is absolutely correct. Now, as we suckle at the teat of our TV mistress, we have northern teams playing night games in late November and southern teams playing day games in the summer (yes...it is still summer here)...
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
There are only 2 teams that can cause any instability at all in this conference. So any complaining by the fans of those two schools that the conference is not stable is exactly as you say.
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
For the 1000th time, the Pac 12 (14, 16) is not going to take a religious school. So any scenario suggesting it is ridiculous. Also, why would they take 2 Texas teams when they could get multiple markets?
And in your scenario, Big 10 is still at 14 with only 1 AAU school to choose from that are currently or have been in P5 conferences.
Every scenario that I see, I think ISU ends up in a P5(4) conference except for one: That is if we expand now with no GOR extension. That is the one I don't see us ending up in a P5(4) conference.
If ISU was able to take advantage of cold night games in november and actually beat some good teams (like the OSU game), that might change
Eh, TCU is certainly different from BYU in terms of trepidation about the school's policies, so I don't think that's a sure thing. And Texas Tech and TCU are in the same "market" just like Kansas and Iowa State are. That is to say, not at all.
If expansion does happen with the Big 12 falling apart, I don't think every conference will be scrambling to get to 16. The B1G may stand pat at 14, or maybe they do jump to 16 while the SEC stays where there are. The B1G prints money as it is - I very much doubt that Kansas or Iowa State (2/3rds of the AAU schools in the Big 12) are on their mind at all.