I don't disagree you often Erik, but on this I think you are dead wrong. There is one other major reason to hire TJ: Because he has the skills and talent level to do the job. To us, just looking at his resume, there may be only "vague possible" upsides, but from JP's position those upsides are much more tangible. He'd know, he's worked with him for almost 10 years.
I view this a little differently. Fred ran the program with a definite sense of "win-now, we'll figure out the future later" urgency. If a slam-dunk hire like Hornacek were to come in, they could keep that pace going. But it's unlikely to be sustainable without a superstar coach willing to take those risks.
If a low/mid-major coach is hired, or TJ, Hoiball will end after this next season and the pace of the program will change. TJ or whoever will bring in far more 4-year players and far less transfers/risks. They will build the program in a more traditional model. THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY A BAD THING! In many ways this is the less risky way to go, especially if TJ can keep the Wisconsin talent pipeline open.