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Ken Pom 10,000 simulations

OU dropping at game at home to KSU should impact their odds more than beating Texas at Texas IMO. That's a bad loss

Texas has yet to beat a Top 50 team. I don't get the love for them...
 
Cycsk said:
Seriously, do the simulations consider the referee mysteries that are so prevalent in KU games?
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If I were tweaking one of these models and seriously wanted to predict as well as possible I'd include it somehow. There might be a few other cases around the country but I can't say I've watched enough conference games to know. In the Big 12 it's a very reliable occurrence that KU is gonna get some calls wherever they play. It's not that statistically different than working home court advantage in as many of them do. It'd be interesting to see models that rank home courts, I mean Texas home court is not Hilton. If you knew all these leagues well enough you could probably put a number on things like that.
 
Cyclonestate78 said:
Let's assume the perfect scenario happens this week...

Oklahoma gets beat by West Virginia tonight, Kansas chokes against Okie State tonight, and Iowa State sweeps their 2 games this week.

ISU would be unbeaten in league play and Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma would all have 2 losses giving ISU a little cushion very early in the conference title race. (Being realistic... WVU, K-State, and Okie State are not going to be in the hunt for the conference title)

I've got my fingers crossed that this scenario becomes a reality by late Saturday night.
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AND ISU has 3 of the next 4 after that at home, with the lone road game @TECH, by far the easiest 4-game stretch of the conference season. The two games this week, followed by that stretch, provide a REAL opportunity for some early separation in the conference race.
 
besserheimerphat said:
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 200, align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OU[/TD]
[TD]33.83
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KU[/TD]
[TD]30.05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ISU[/TD]
[TD]29.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WVU[/TD]
[TD]18.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OSU[/TD]
[TD]12.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BU[/TD]
[TD]9.81[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UT[/TD]
[TD]2.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KSU[/TD]
[TD]0.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TCU[/TD]
[TD]0.01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tech[/TD]
[TD]0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Because it is win or share of the title, and we don't know what the probabilities are for each team to win outright vs. share, the best way to think about it is ISU has a 29.96% chance of having at least a share of the championship, and a 70.04% chance of having no share of the championship. Repeat for each of the other teams. Without knowing the details of the simulation, I don't think there's much else to take from it.
Click to expand...

What I take from that? Tejas is in trouble.
 
cycloneworld said:
OU dropping at game at home to KSU should impact their odds more than beating Texas at Texas IMO. That's a bad loss

Texas has yet to beat a Top 50 team. I don't get the love for them...
Click to expand...
...but Myles Turner was a 5 star that hit four threes...and they still lost...Holmes took a night off....and Riddley was working on his hair style.
 
RedDog said:
I can't link right now but interesting.
After running 10,000 simulations here are his top 3 to win/share Big12 title:

OU. 33.83%
KU. 30.05%
ISU. 29.96%
Click to expand...


Ken Pom is about as accurate as your average Joe Fan. Wasn't this system really high on Iowa last season? Who cares what Ken Pom thinks or computes?


We're the best team in the league. Second at worst behind KU. Most non biased humans that actually pay attention the Big 12 can see this.
 
bawbie said:
What I take from that? Tejas is in trouble.
Click to expand...


And most of us didn't need 10000 simulations to know that. I never bought into Texas being a top flight team this year. However, I also don't buy into Texas being a bottom-dweller.
 
ISUTex said:
Ken Pom is about as accurate as your average Joe Fan. Wasn't this system really high on Iowa last season? Who cares what Ken Pom thinks or computes?


We're the best team in the league. Second at worst behind KU. Most non biased humans that actually pay attention the Big 12 can see this.
Click to expand...

Oh ok
 
ISUTex said:
Ken Pom is about as accurate as your average Joe Fan. Wasn't this system really high on Iowa last season? Who cares what Ken Pom thinks or computes?


We're the best team in the league. Second at worst behind KU. Most non biased humans that actually pay attention the Big 12 can see this.
Click to expand...

Find me one, then we'll talk.
 
ISUTex said:
Ken Pom is about as accurate as your average Joe Fan. Wasn't this system really high on Iowa last season? Who cares what Ken Pom thinks or computes?
Click to expand...

For evaluating ISU, Kenpom just doesn't work. For four years in a row we have been significantly lower in KenPom than AP poll, RPI, coaches poll, and massy's average of dozens of other computer polls.

No system is perfect and his just doesn't work for ISU. When it happens that consistently it's just clear something about the way we win exposes a flaw in his analysis. KP had p-i-g Tennessee as #7 last year so it has that going for it.
 
By KenPom's winning percentages, ISU's expected (as in "expected value") to go 9.65-6.35 over the rest of the regular season. By Sagarin, 9.57-6.43. Obviously, KenPom is horrible.
 
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