Ken Pom 10,000 simulations

[Doc]

I can't link right now but interesting.
After running 10,000 simulations here are his top 3 to win/share Big12 title:

OU. 33.83%
KU. 30.05%
ISU. 29.96%

Does the whole league need to add up to 100%? Something doesn't seem quite right.

Seems really strange that there would only be a 6.16% chance that a team other than those 3 win it all.

It's win outright OR share, so the total is going to add up to more than 100%.

 

[Cycsk]

Seems really strange that there would only be a 6.16% chance that a team other than those 3 win it all.

May be affected by the fact of so few data points coming from conference games.

 

[mcdrier]

I am guessing it is like this....ISU has just under a 30% chance of winning title, just based on us alone...AKA, ISU has a 29.96% chance of winning, while the other 9 teams have a 70.04% winning it. Take each team's % of winning and subtract from 100.

 

[VeloClone]

Good grief. Doesn't anyone actually read the thread before chiming in?

 

[ronandkay]

So you're telling me there's a chance....

*crickets*.....that is so Dumb......and Dumber!

 

[cyclones500]

Seems really strange that there would only be a 6.16% chance that a team other than those 3 win it all.

If so, that other 6.16% is Texas.

Nobody but KU, ISU, OU and Texas will win it this year. And I'm about 30-70 on OU.

That's my simulation.

 

[RedDog]

I am traveling but someone can find the link on Phog.net hoops.

 

[RedDog]

If so, that other 6.16% is Texas.

Nobody but KU, ISU, OU and Texas will win it this year. And I'm about 30-70 on OU.

That's my simulation.

9999 to go!

 

[Rhoadhoused]

It took a shocking amount of posts for people here to realize that the total will add up to over 100% due to the shared title possibility....

 

[Cytasticlone]

*crickets*.....that is so Dumb......and Dumber!.....*more crickets*

FIFY

 

[Cytasticlone]

Heres an article that has the table in it.

http://cjonline.com/blog-post/jesse...-basketball-improves-big-12-chances-still-not

 

[rholtgraves]

I'm hoping KU and ISU win this week so the hype for the game this weekend is even bigger.

 

[CYUL8R]

I'm hoping KU and ISU win this week so the hype for the game this weekend is even bigger.

Kansas can lose to every team that we have beaten and it won't hurt my feelings one bit.

Check that, Kansas can lose to EVERY team and it won't hurt my feelings a bit.

If we win the next 2, I will breathe a huge sigh of relief on our chances for the Big XII overall.

 

[HFCS]

Sagarin or KenPom need to add the obvious missing ingredient if they really want their models to predict as well as possible. Give KU some kind of advantage for Big 12 games over other teams, not sure how they could do it but adding 5 points per game should be about right since some games it's 0 and others it's 10.

 

[HFCS]

Kansas can lose to every team that we have beaten and it won't hurt my feelings one bit.

Check that, Kansas can lose to EVERY team and it won't hurt my feelings a bit.

If we win the next 2, I will breathe a huge sigh of relief on our chances for the Big XII overall.

Yes. If KU loses this week before ISU's game it just gives this week a chance to be extra awesome...plus if we're in it to win this thing we have to hope every top half team besides ISU loses every game. One or two more losses and we need to start cheering for Texas to beat teams.

 

[besserheimerphat]

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 200, align: left"]
[TR]
[TD]Team
[/TD]
[TD]Likelihood
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OU
[/TD]
[TD]33.83
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KU
[/TD]
[TD]30.05
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ISU
[/TD]
[TD]29.96
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WVU
[/TD]
[TD]18.91
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OSU
[/TD]
[TD]12.09
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BU
[/TD]
[TD]9.81
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UT
[/TD]
[TD]2.24
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KSU
[/TD]
[TD]0.25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TCU
[/TD]
[TD]0.01
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tech
[/TD]
[TD]0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Because it is win or share of the title, and we don't know what the probabilities are for each team to win outright vs. share, the best way to think about it is ISU has a 29.96% chance of having at least a share of the championship, and a 70.04% chance of having no share of the championship. Repeat for each of the other teams. Without knowing the details of the simulation, I don't think there's much else to take from it.

 

[Cardinal2001]

Good grief. Doesn't anyone actually read the thread before chiming in?

So, you're new here?

 

[BryceC]

Statistical models aside, I won't start giving us a chance until we beat ku this weekend. Lost that one and we are playing for seed again.

 

[Doc]

Good grief. Doesn't anyone actually read the thread before chiming in?

Hey, that all happened in 2 minutes. :smile:

 

[Cycsk]

Sagarin or KenPom need to add the obvious missing ingredient if they really want their models to predict as well as possible. Give KU some kind of advantage for Big 12 games over other teams, not sure how they could do it but adding 5 points per game should be about right since some games it's 0 and others it's 10.

Seriously, do the simulations consider the referee mysteries that are so prevalent in KU games?