Ken Pom 10,000 simulations
- Thread starter RedDog
- Start date
Well, I was going to watch Oklahoma State throttle Kansas, but now I guess I'm going to have to watch West Virginia give Oklahoma an L.
Don't get me wrong, I think Oklahoma is a good team, but I don't understand why they're constantly considered the favorite to win. Them throttling Texas doesn't help, but that was a mix of a great Oklahoma night and an awful Texas night.
Don't get me wrong, I think Oklahoma is a good team, but I don't understand why they're constantly considered the favorite to win. Them throttling Texas doesn't help, but that was a mix of a great Oklahoma night and an awful Texas night.
OU won AT Texas, which is why the computers love them. But I do not think they are getting dinged enough for losing at home to KSU. If ISU wins out this week, we are squarely in the driver's seat.
That's pretty encouraging given we are valued lower in Kenpom than RPI, Sagarin and voter polls every year.
Those 3 equal 63.39%. I think once you assume that TTU, and TCU are low single-digits, and KSU, OSU are mid-single digits, you're left with Baylor, WVU, and UT being high singles. Looks like it works out.
TTU - 1%
TCU - 3%
KSU - 4%
OSU - 5%
BU - 7%
WVU- 8%
UT - 9%
It doesn't care much for us because we score too many points...but when the metric needed to win a conferences is Ws and Ls eventually it has to like the team that is winning instead of the team that is playing its preferred style.
Oklahoma has a good, balanced team. Hield is one of the top, if not the best SG in the confference. Cousins is a very good win player. Woodard seems to be a serviceable point guard, although not a good shooter. Tashawn Thomas is a load inside. Spangler is a bigger load inside and suddenly is an outside threat as well.
They have their weaknesses, but so do all teams. Oklahoma's bench seems really weak and Woodard and Thomas are no threats from outside. Last year, almost everyone they put on the floor was a threat from 3. This year, not as much.
Kansas isn't as dominant as they typically are. The best chance to beat Iowa State is to slow the game down and play physical. Sure, ISU won against OSU and WVU in games like that, but who knows if that will keep up.
Right now, it seems like its going to be a scrum to the finish and I think all 3 teams have a good chance to win it. I also think Texas is right up there. If someone runs away with it, I think it will be KU or ISU, but thats no sure thing
Actually, those three add up to 93.84%. Just got a new calculator...
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Let's assume the perfect scenario happens this week...
Oklahoma gets beat by West Virginia tonight, Kansas chokes against Okie State tonight, and Iowa State sweeps their 2 games this week.
ISU would be unbeaten in league play and Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma would all have 2 losses giving ISU a little cushion very early in the conference title race. (Being realistic... WVU, K-State, and Okie State are not going to be in the hunt for the conference title)
I've got my fingers crossed that this scenario becomes a reality by late Saturday night.
