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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

Wesley said:
Looks like we should not play UMKC and UNO any more. The Campbell game was fairly tough for such a low rated opponent.
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Yeah, this year. UMKC and UNO were in the bottom half of the Summit League but I'm pretty sure other years Iowa State has played S. Dakota St (RPI: 71) and W. Illinois (123), the top two Summit League teams this year. Likewise, OU happened to play the top three teams in the Southland Conference but if they had Lamar (335) and McNeese St (243) on their schedule their SOS goes down.

I'm sure some teams are usual top teams in their conference, but it's also a lot of luck of the draw. Overall, I think the committee does a decent job of correcting for some of these issues and why they can't just look at RPI or SOS.
 
Things pick up tomorrow quite a bit with several bubble teams in action. Only one auto-bid up for grabs from the Patriot League. Bubble watch for Wednesday with teams to cheer for in bold.

Big East
Cincinnati vs Providence- Bubble elimination game. Cincinnati could play onto the bubble with a loss and Providence has almost no chance of an at large. A Cincy win marginally helps ISU's RPI though.

St John's vs Villanova - Villanova is most likely in, but could cause some doubt with a loss.


MWC
UNLV vs Air Force - Air Force needs a lot of help to get in, but the sooner they lose, the better. UNLV win marginally helps ISU's RPI.

SDSU vs Boise State - This is a big one, probably the biggest bubble game of the day. A win likely puts Boise in, Go Aztecs


PAC 12
Colorado vs Oregon State - Colorado is in for now, but could be in deep trouble with 2 losses to the Beaver in 4 days.


Patriot Championship
Bucknell vs Lafayette - Bucknell could get an at-large with a loss. Very similar resume as MTSU.
 
Tyler (Des Moines)

Does Iowa get in with wins against NU and MSU? Or, must they make it to the B1G Championship game for consideration?
Joe Lunardi (2:10 PM)
The latter. One big win is probably not enough for Iowa.


Daniel (Davenport, IA)

I don't get your logic on Iowa. Illinois and Minnesota are sub .500 in conference and Iowa is ahead of them in conference. Iowa has been playing better than both teams of late (especially Minnesota.)
Joe Lunardi (2:27 PM)

I feel the pain of Iowa fans, but they need to get over it. NonConf was sub-300 and they have modest wins (all at home). They also played a weaker in-conference schedule than Illinois and Minnesota, and the Committee has that information. It really isn't close for them.

Ryan (cedar rapids)

Thats the point I'm trying to make, Joe. Dont you think the computers are to involved in the process? I realize Iowa played a terrible non-conference schedule.. but what i dont get is why that matters when its obvious Iowa is a better team than illinois and minnesota. You tell me whats better.. beating a cupcake by 30 or losing by 1 to a top 25 team? Thats a serious question.. does either scenario boost a resume?
Joe Lunardi (2:39 PM)

If Iowa is "obviously" better (and they are not), then why didn't they win enough games to make it a moot point?



Didn't realize Hawkeye fans were such whiners, geez. (I'm saying this, not Lunardi)
 
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A couple more for you, CyForPresident (and, awesome job with these, btw) -

Arizona State vs. Stanford (-3.5) - Stanford probably needs two or three wins to work their way to an at-large. A potential resume boost vs. UCLA awaits the winner.

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers - Notre Dame likely still in the tournament with a loss, but losing to a bad Rutgers team would make them sweat it out. Rutgers isn't getting in unless they win five in a row, and that's not happening. Also, too, Notre dame is on ugly jersey watch.
 
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IHavNoCyCash said:
Tyler (Des Moines)

Does Iowa get in with wins against NU and MSU? Or, must they make it to the B1G Championship game for consideration?
Joe Lunardi (2:10 PM)
The latter. One big win is probably not enough for Iowa.


Daniel (Davenport, IA)

I don't get your logic on Iowa. Illinois and Minnesota are sub .500 in conference and Iowa is ahead of them in conference. Iowa has been playing better than both teams of late (especially Minnesota.)
Joe Lunardi (2:27 PM)

I feel the pain of Iowa fans, but they need to get over it. NonConf was sub-300 and they have modest wins (all at home). They also played a weaker in-conference schedule than Illinois and Minnesota, and the Committee has that information. It really isn't close for them.

Ryan (cedar rapids)

Thats the point I'm trying to make, Joe. Dont you think the computers are to involved in the process? I realize Iowa played a terrible non-conference schedule.. but what i dont get is why that matters when its obvious Iowa is a better team than illinois and minnesota. You tell me whats better.. beating a cupcake by 30 or losing by 1 to a top 25 team? Thats a serious question.. does either scenario boost a resume?
Joe Lunardi (2:39 PM)

If Iowa is "obviously" better (and they are not), then why didn't they win enough games to make it a moot point?



Didn't realize Hawkeye fans were such whiners, geez. (I'm saying this, not Lunardi)
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This is Gold
 
kucyclone said:
A couple more for you, CyForPresident (and, awesome job with these, btw) -

Arizona State vs. Stanford (-3.5) - Stanford probably needs two or three wins to work their way to an at-large. A potential resume boost vs. UCLA awaits the winner.

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers - Notre Dame likely still in the tournament with a loss, but losing to a bad Rutgers team would make them sweat it out. Rutgers isn't getting in unless they win five in a row, and that's not happening. Also, too, Notre dame is on ugly jersey watch.
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Notre Dame could find a way to lose to Rutgers twice in the Big East tournament and they would still make it to the dance.
 
IHavNoCyCash said:
Tyler (Des Moines)

Does Iowa get in with wins against NU and MSU? Or, must they make it to the B1G Championship game for consideration?
Joe Lunardi (2:10 PM)
The latter. One big win is probably not enough for Iowa.


Daniel (Davenport, IA)

I don't get your logic on Iowa. Illinois and Minnesota are sub .500 in conference and Iowa is ahead of them in conference. Iowa has been playing better than both teams of late (especially Minnesota.)
Joe Lunardi (2:27 PM)

I feel the pain of Iowa fans, but they need to get over it. NonConf was sub-300 and they have modest wins (all at home). They also played a weaker in-conference schedule than Illinois and Minnesota, and the Committee has that information. It really isn't close for them.

Ryan (cedar rapids)

Thats the point I'm trying to make, Joe. Dont you think the computers are to involved in the process? I realize Iowa played a terrible non-conference schedule.. but what i dont get is why that matters when its obvious Iowa is a better team than illinois and minnesota. You tell me whats better.. beating a cupcake by 30 or losing by 1 to a top 25 team? Thats a serious question.. does either scenario boost a resume?
Joe Lunardi (2:39 PM)

If Iowa is "obviously" better (and they are not), then why didn't they win enough games to make it a moot point?

Didn't realize Hawkeye fans were such whiners, geez. (I'm saying this, not Lunardi)
Click to expand...

I chalk up part of that to people not knowing how it works, contrary to you & me & many of our ilk.

I wouldn't fault a fan for hoping his/her team should get in (especially considering, 3 weeks ago, Iowa wasn't even on the radar, now it seems within realm of possibility). But this is an example of people who don't understand the nuances of selection. (And, I assume, their beliefs come from innocent naivete, and not pure denial).

It's understandable, because not all that many years ago, before I started looking into the process analytically, details about conference records and number of teams from Conference A vs. B didn't seem to make sense.

Those are common misconceptions (noted many times in this thread and others) — generalized examples:
1 "How can the Conference X get 11 teams in the tournament?"
2 "If a team can't finish .500 in its conference, it doesn't deserve a bid, especially if another team in the league finished over .500 and missed out."
3 "Team A is a head of Team B in league standings and beat them twice — how is Team A not in and Team B is?"
(I refer to the combination of 2nd & 3rd example as the "2008 Arizona-Arizona State Rule") :smile:
 
CyForPresident said:
Big East
Cincinnati vs Providence- Bubble elimination game. Cincinnati could play onto the bubble with a loss and Providence has almost no chance of an at large. A Cincy win marginally helps ISU's RPI though.
Click to expand...

Can't believe how quickly Cincinnati went from top 20 to bubble. I haven't watched them lately, but they have too much talent for the garbage they're putting out. I don't get it. Goin to OT at home against South Florida??

Looking back to them and UNLV, I think if we played them both now, it would be a very different outcome.
 
isuchicago said:
Can't believe how quickly Cincinnati went from top 20 to bubble. I haven't watched them lately, but they have too much talent for the garbage they're putting out. I don't get it. Goin to OT at home against South Florida??

Looking back to them and UNLV, I think if we played them both now, it would be a very different outcome.
Click to expand...

UC situation is bizarre, I agree.

Even two weeks ago, Cincy in bubble discussion was nearly unthinkable.

I still think that team is relatively safe for a bid, but that was around 5 or 6 seed territory even in mid-February.

Evidence for "body of work."

A few other teams that slid from "fairly safe" to "hold the phone" in recent weeks:
* Colorado
* Minnesota
* San Diego State (still safe, but seeding-wise)
* Wichita State
 
America East - Vermont (1) - Next game vs. Albany for the Championship

A-10 - VCU, St. Louis, Butler, Temple (4)
Bubble - La Salle (RPI 41, BPI 53, SOS 83) (1)
Fringe - Xavier (RPI 77, BPI 70, SOS 30), Massachusetts (RPI 58, BPI 84, SOS 68) (2) - Great win by Temple. That gets them into the NCAA Tournament.

ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State (4)
Bubble - Virginia (RPI 66, BPI 38, SOS 99) (1) - Virginia gets the win and effectively knocks out Maryland.

Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (1)

Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (3)
Bubble - Oklahoma (RPI 33, BPI 43, SOS 22), Iowa State (RPI 47, BPI 35, SOS 59) (2)
Fringe - Baylor (RPI 61, BPI 47, SOS 47) (1) - ISU got the two wins it needed. Oklahoma comes back to the bubble with that inexplicable loss to TCU. Baylor stays fringe with that insane win over Kansas. Baylor has a ton of work to do. the winner of Oklahoma vs. ISU becomes a solid lock for the NCAA Tourney.

Big East - Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (7)
Bubble: Villanova (RPI 52, BPI 59, SOS 25) (1)

Big Sky - Weber State (1) - Must win Auto Bid.

Big South - Liberty (1)

Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7)
Bubble - None
Fringe - Iowa (RPI 75, BPI 48, SOS 62) (1) - Got the win over Nebraska, and need to go deep in the BIg Ten tourney. The non-con schedule is killing this team.

Big West - Long Beach State (1) - Auto bid or bust.

CAA - James Madison (1)

CUSA - Memphis (1) - Regular Season Champion. Next game versus winner of Tulane and Marshall.
Fringe - Southern Mississippi (RPI 35, BPI 62, SOS 117)

Horizon - Valparaiso (1)

Ivy - Harvard - Clinched the Ivy.

MAAC - Iona (1)

MAC - Ohio (1) - The Abreu arrest and subsequent collapse of Akron has shattered any hope of an at large dream. This has become auto bid or bust. Ohio look to be the favorite in this conference if Abreu does not come back.

MEAC - Norfolk State (1) - Next game vs. Bethune Cookman. Must win Auto Bid

Missouri Valley - Creighton, Wichita State (2) - Creighton the MVC Champion.

Mountain West - New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, SDSU (4)
Bubble: Boise State (RPI 37, BPI 45, SOS 86) (1)
Fringe - Air Force (RPI 71, BPI 86, SOS 89) (1) - Big win by Boise State over SDSU. They are looking very solid for the tournament. Air Force got a great win over New Mexico, but still need to make a run in the MWC tournament. This team has the potential to do so.

Northeast - LIU Brooklyn (1)

Ohio Valley - Belmont - OVC Champion

Pac-12 - Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona (4)
Bubble - Colorado (RPI 36, BPI 37, SOS 5) (1)
Fringe - ASU (RPI 91, BPI 67, SOS 79) (1) - Bad loss by Colorado to Oregon State. Still in ok position, but need one more win. ASU needs to win the Pac -12 tournament.

Patriot - Bucknell (1) - Fringe At Large candidate. Would be well served to win their tournament. Next game versus Lafayette for the Patriot League Championship. (RPI 51, BPI 58, SOS 170)

SEC - Florida, Missouri (2)
Bubble: Kentucky(RPI 50, BPI 44, SOS 39), Tennessee(RPI 55, BPI 60, SOS 28), Ole Miss(RPI 56, BPI 40, SOS 104) (3)
Fringe: Alabama (RPI 62, BPI 66, SOS 52), Arkansas (RPI 80, BPI 74, SOS 65) (2) - All bubble teams won on Saturday. Kentucky and Tennessee really helped themselves. The key for everyone is no bad losses. So, don't lose in the first round of the SEC tournament.

Southern - Davidson (1) -

Southland - Stephen F. Austin (1) - Must Win Auto Bid

SWAC - Southern (1) - Next game versus Alabama A&M or Grambling State. Must win Auto Bid

Summit League - South Dakota State (1)

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (1)
Bubble - Middle Tennessee (1) - Just like last year, MTSU loses in their conference tournament. Will need a lot of help to get into the tournament. (RPI 28, BPI 46, SOS 135)

WCC - Gonzaga (1)
Bubble - Saint Mary's (RPI 30, BPI 33, SOS 114) (1)

WAC - Denver (1) - Next game versus Texas State. Must win Auto Bid.
Locks: 59
Bubble and Fringe: 20
With 59 locks, that leaves only 9 spots for 20 Bubble and Fringe teams. Today is a major bubble day with a lot of implications.
 
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Cyclonepride said:
I don't know- we killed OSU when they were pressing us. I'm not familiar with the havoc defense, but if we handle and pass like we can, the pressure creates easy baskets and open looks.
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VCU's press defense is much different that OSU's. It is intense man to man 94 feet and its the only defense they play. OSU plays more half court and switched to a 2-2-1 zone press in attempt to cause a turnover or speed the game up since they were down.

Its a team that i would prefer not to match up against in round 1.........but unless ISU can win tomorrow beggers can't be choosey.
 
kucyclone said:
A couple more for you, CyForPresident (and, awesome job with these, btw) -

Arizona State vs. Stanford (-3.5) - Stanford probably needs two or three wins to work their way to an at-large. A potential resume boost vs. UCLA awaits the winner.

Notre Dame vs. Rutgers - Notre Dame likely still in the tournament with a loss, but losing to a bad Rutgers team would make them sweat it out. Rutgers isn't getting in unless they win five in a row, and that's not happening. Also, too, Notre dame is on ugly jersey watch.
Click to expand...

ND is in no matter what IMO. And the winner of ASU vs Standford will be someone to cheer against on Thursday, but today's game has no real effect on the bubble. Those 2 teams are not very good.

And I just realized that Boise State will have to beat SDSU twice in 5 days. Good luck with that.
 
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IHavNoCyCash said:
Tyler (Des Moines)

Does Iowa get in with wins against NU and MSU? Or, must they make it to the B1G Championship game for consideration?
Joe Lunardi (2:10 PM)
The latter. One big win is probably not enough for Iowa.


Daniel (Davenport, IA)

I don't get your logic on Iowa. Illinois and Minnesota are sub .500 in conference and Iowa is ahead of them in conference. Iowa has been playing better than both teams of late (especially Minnesota.)
Joe Lunardi (2:27 PM)

I feel the pain of Iowa fans, but they need to get over it. NonConf was sub-300 and they have modest wins (all at home). They also played a weaker in-conference schedule than Illinois and Minnesota, and the Committee has that information. It really isn't close for them.

Ryan (cedar rapids)

Thats the point I'm trying to make, Joe. Dont you think the computers are to involved in the process? I realize Iowa played a terrible non-conference schedule.. but what i dont get is why that matters when its obvious Iowa is a better team than illinois and minnesota. You tell me whats better.. beating a cupcake by 30 or losing by 1 to a top 25 team? Thats a serious question.. does either scenario boost a resume?
Joe Lunardi (2:39 PM)

If Iowa is "obviously" better (and they are not), then why didn't they win enough games to make it a moot point?



Didn't realize Hawkeye fans were such whiners, geez. (I'm saying this, not Lunardi)
Click to expand...

All you have to do is look at Iowa's 9 B10 wins...who are they over?

Northwestern (2)
Nebraska
Purdue
Penn State (2)
Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin (all at home)

That is 3 wins over teams with winning records since December, and they all came at home. Really the only one to boast about is Wisconsin since Minn. and Ill. has losing records in the B10.

Combine that with a stinker non-conf and there isn't anything there. They only played 4 teams with a pulse in the non-conf. ISU, UNI, Wichita, and Va Tech. Lost 2 of the 4.
 
cyclones500 said:
I chalk up part of that to people not knowing how it works, contrary to you & me & many of our ilk.

I wouldn't fault a fan for hoping his/her team should get in (especially considering, 3 weeks ago, Iowa wasn't even on the radar, now it seems within realm of possibility). But this is an example of people who don't understand the nuances of selection. (And, I assume, their beliefs come from innocent naivete, and not pure denial).

It's understandable, because not all that many years ago, before I started looking into the process analytically, details about conference records and number of teams from Conference A vs. B didn't seem to make sense.

Those are common misconceptions (noted many times in this thread and others) — generalized examples:
1 "How can the Conference X get 11 teams in the tournament?"
2 "If a team can't finish .500 in its conference, it doesn't deserve a bid, especially if another team in the league finished over .500 and missed out."
3 "Team A is a head of Team B in league standings and beat them twice — how is Team A not in and Team B is?"
(I refer to the combination of 2nd & 3rd example as the "2008 Arizona-Arizona State Rule") :smile:
Click to expand...
Hoks should never have lost at Nebby if they did not want to have to play the what if game.
 
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