***Weekend Weather***
- Thread starter scottie33
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CyBer
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Large area of "Winter Storm Watch" for Southern Nebraska/Northern Kansas...Hopefully when I wake up tomorrow that winter storm watch has shifted South about 50-75 miles and keeps that track straight through Des Moines!
One can only hope
One can only hope
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CyBer
Guest
Who at the national weather service drew that obscene graphic and what rationale did they use ?
If you look at the hourly forecast grid for Ankeny from the national weather service, which is in the 6 or more inch graphic, the total is around 4 inches of snow. Most of which falls at a temperature slightly above freezing and over a long enough time frame that it should mostly melt.
I get that this will mostly be a surface temperature forecast and that heavy snow can overwelm 36F air, but if it snows 5 inches but only accumulates to 2, what is the point besides FUD sells (or brings ratings) ?
The national weather service forecast discussion says it looks like the 2009 Christmas storm which I believe dropped 20 some inches of snow in Sioux City, an ice storm east of Ida Grove, and featured a very sharp cutover to snow in Central Iowa.
If you look at the hourly forecast grid for Ankeny from the national weather service, which is in the 6 or more inch graphic, the total is around 4 inches of snow. Most of which falls at a temperature slightly above freezing and over a long enough time frame that it should mostly melt.
I get that this will mostly be a surface temperature forecast and that heavy snow can overwelm 36F air, but if it snows 5 inches but only accumulates to 2, what is the point besides FUD sells (or brings ratings) ?
The national weather service forecast discussion says it looks like the 2009 Christmas storm which I believe dropped 20 some inches of snow in Sioux City, an ice storm east of Ida Grove, and featured a very sharp cutover to snow in Central Iowa.
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CyBer
Guest
interesting how chan 5 is calling for a foot-ish in NW iowa while NWS saying storm will hit harder on a denison to waterloo line... so we have some squabbles amongst local forcasters...
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CyBer
Guest
Shows how much I know about that stuff, I thought it was a discussion amongst people..... lol
It's possible that channel 5 is talking about a statewide look, while the NWS is only focusing on their forecast area (Central Iowa).
The NWS in Johnston only issues forecasts for their warning forecast area, of which Denison and Waterloo are essentially the West/East boundaries.
Stretching that line back into Nebraska you can find some areas out there that may be able to reach a foot and a half, potentially.
Will be driving back from Kansas City to Ankeny Later Saturday into Saturday evening. Is everything supposed to be through by then?
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CyBer
Guest
If we get as much snow as some of those are saying, the roads probably won't be too great.
The 36 degree high they are forecasting is actually at midnight. Most of the day they have 31-32 foretasted.
Not to say I totally agree with their forecasts, and I have been especially critical of them sometimes with exactly what you're talking about with suspect totals re: melting.
But it's also my experience that temps slightly above freezing OVERNIGHT, don't matter much with the snow falling at a good clip. It just doesn't melt the same (as quickly) without the direct sunlight.
But I think you have a point. At this juncture I think it may be a struggle for much more than 4-5" around DSM without a track change.
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No, I looked at omaha and sioux fall NWS sites and they agree on the denison/waterloo line...