Stop underutilizing Ward

[cydnote]

At least this thread accomplished something.

Finally, after 10 pages, we accomplished ZRF's goal and then he chimes in again

 

[madguy30]

Probably true but the play of Ward really just seems so elite its a valid question why he doesnt get more minutes We have a lot of players that deserve playing time and that could be a source of friction amongst coaches and highly competitive players. So far so good. Nice to have a problem of to many talented players instead of not enough.

He is close to fouling out in many games and humans, especially large humans, get tired.

Way to feed the beast though.

 

[MJ271]

This is a pretty good post.

The thing with BRE last year was that he was statistically the worst player receiving big minutes during conference play. Sadly (for us) it wasn't even particularly close.

Sadly I haven't found a place that provides the stats I like without having to pay for it (on off court performance). Then there are some like Miya that have usefull and interesting stats (like different in adjusted efficiency with players on the court) but can't strictly be isolated to conference play.

Even places like Miya seem to have some built in biases (for example toward minutes played) as some numbers really defy conventional wisdom. For example, Milan's defensive metrics (DBPR) ranks 3rd behind Lipsey and Gilbert for the season. Then you have guys like CuJo and Watson, ones most on here would consider superior to Milan in that regard, ranking well below.

One thing that's interesting, and IMO makes sense, is that the more athletic the player is the more their play holds up in conference relative to weaker non-conference competition. Ward is at the top in 30 day BPR change while Jones is at the bottom (I was surprised initially but most of Jones' drop was on OBPR which makes sense). Three of the four at the bottom are Milan, Pavs, and Jones who are probably our 3 least athetlic players. At the top you have Ward, Bileuw, King, Gilbert and CuJo, who are largely our most athletic guys.

Points on Ward are valid, but if he's not in fould trouble it's time for TJ to push him between 25-30 minutes as consistently as possible. Make him show what he can/cannot handle.

Maybe I didn't find this site until towards the end of last season, but I recommend cbbanalytics.com. There's a subscription tier that gives access to all teams, but with a free account you can get all of Iowa State's stats. I do remember posting some of Jones's on/off stats from there, but maybe those weren't in conversation with you.

Over the course of the full season last year, Jones had the best on/off numbers of any big man by quite a bit.


Conference play was similar, though Ward's small sample gave him a really high net rating.



Now, this does all deserve the caveat that on/off will always be less reliable in college than in the NBA, since there are a lot fewer games and fewer lineup combinations within those games. I'll note that right now in conference play, Ward is near the top and Jones is at the bottom, but we do have some likely small-sample anomolies, like MM being bad for the offense. (I could maybe buy that due to a change in style of play when he's on the court, but I think we need more evidence.)

However, those stats are still why I've gone back to Jones having an impact that isn't captured by box score stats and why I think there's a lot more evidence for his impact going beyond those stats than there is for Ward's impact going beyond box score stats.

 

[NENick]

ZRF, One thing (of several) that bother me about your posts is the use of words like atrocious, horrible, useless, etc., when referring to Cyclone players. There is not an individual on the team that deserves this, from you or anyone else.

Also, since this has morphed into Pav - Watson, I looked back at the early season games and minute distribution.
1) Pav 6, DW 12
2) Pav 7, DW 13
3) Pav 6, DW 13
4) Pav 7, DW 14
5) Pav 5, DW 1
From there Pav's minutes went up, DW's down. It might have been that TJ was deciding if he had another shot-maker in Pav. CJones wasn't shooting well and there was a stretch when Pav played pretty well, including Iowa (28 min, 7 pts, 5 RBs, 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 0 TOs.)

 

[Dgilbertson]

That argument would apply to every player .

Ward is "raw" and played very little last year whereas Rob has had significant playing time in all 3 years. I think it stands to reason Ward has a "learning curve" in figuring out the balance against Big 12 competition. It's not something that can be learned in practice, only in games.

The bigger statistical difference between the two is one that's very hard to measure with traditional metrics. When a player (Ward) creates such wild and consistent swings in team performance when he's on the floor vs on the bench it indicates there is a palpable effect on team play. Better than +/- which only evaluates the impact when a player is ON the floor, you need to compare how the team plays with said player on and said player off. Ward, especially in conference play, creates the biggest swings when he's on/off the floor. As fans we see/sense it, but when we look at the box score Ward's numbers are often pedestrian. But if you dig deeper, look at advanced metrics, then break it down we are simply a significant better team with Ward on the floor. It's not even close.

That's where my support for Ward's minutes is rooted. Unfortunately traditional stats don't tell the full story.

Neither do advanced stats or review of game film. KU went on a run and closed to 4 after Rob went out.

You get a narrative and it’s *nearly impossible for it to be swayed. And you think you know better than the coaches at practice.

Which is easy to story to tell using traditional stats.

 

[Frak]

In general I agree.

My biggest issue in the non-con was he was allocating the majority of his extra minutes to Pavs, who was never going to factor significantly into our conference rotation. Of our "extra" players, the focus should have been on CuJo, Watson, and Biliew. Giving Pavs 25 minutes was egregious as it meant these other players, specifically Watson, that were going to be important weren't getting minutes. In fact, there were a few games where Watson barely got 2 which was inexcusable.

Since conference he finally figured out Pavs is terrible/ill-equipped to deal with (taller) superior athletes. Omaha also didn't show he was ready to get a lot of minutes during Big 12 play. But, if he doesn't start extending Ward that's a huge mistake. You don't keep guys that make your team better off the floor. Make him prove he can't handle it. I doubt that he wouldn't but even I can't know that until he's given that opportunity.

The silver lining is we don't have a significant rotational player that significantly drags the team down, like BRE last year. Pavs is this year's BRE but thankfully TJ isn't playing him much during conference.

Pav did not get significant minutes for most of the noncon. Early on, he was getting a few minutes a game even though we were blowing teams out. I would argue that it’s good to get him some time now. We are going to need him. We basically have a 3 man rotation for 2 spots. Any injuries or even foul trouble and Pav is playing major minutes.

I will say that an offseason in the weight room will do that kid wonders.

 

[NoCreativity]

I will say that an offseason in the weight room will do that kid wonders.

I'd be shocked if he's here next year.

 

[cydnote]

I'd be shocked if he's here next year.

So would I, but you don't really know his end game. He may give it another year to see if he can fit in or he may be content just being part of a winning program. I don't believe he thinks he is a next level player but I can't speak for him.

 

[madguy30]

I'd be shocked if he's here next year.

I'm behind on this...how many times can someone transfer and not sit out?

 

[CyberJJJ]

If you go down their stat lines, Ward and Jones are pretty similar players. I think it makes sense to keep them each around 20 minutes with fresh legs.
View attachment 123072

Ward defending a center isn’t the same as Jones defending the center.

 

[NENick]

I'd be shocked if he's here next year.

I disagreed, but if Pav sees he's 4th of 4 returning guards, sees the incoming guards as over-recruiting, and if he can transfer and play immediately, maybe.

 

[rednrdy]

No.

I don't have a problem when the player shows they can't handle the minutes. They are visibly winded, ineffective, etc. But in the absence of those problems you do NOT arbitrarily limit your most effective player. I'm sure there is a limit threshold but am also sure it's not around 44% of available minutes.

That's the entire point of this thread and why I made it a point to mention the "freshness" claims. I'm not directing that part at you but that's always one of the more ******** ideas one can have. You don't pull your best players off the floor so they can be more "fresh". You pull them off when they physically NEED a break or when they show fatigue limits their effectiveness.

Not playing Ward more is a huge mistake. It will cost us games and...more importantly...prevent him from learning how to manage (fouls, fatigue, etc) a larger work load come tournament time. Our best chance of making it to the 2nd weekend and beyond is with him on the floor.

I'll ask one question, prior to responding...as your original post has warrant and I ask myself the same; however...

Have you ever had a stress fracture and screw placed in your foot?

 

[Dgilbertson]

I'll ask one question, prior to responding...as your original post has warrant and I ask myself the same; however...

Have you ever had a stress fracture and screw placed in your foot?

Not the body part I thought you were going to question.

 

[CyCrazy]

I'll ask one question, prior to responding...as your original post has warrant and I ask myself the same; however...

Have you ever had a stress fracture and screw placed in your foot?

I have screws in my wrist that fused my wrist to my arm, and screws in my ankle. Its a blast.