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Season Predictions

vs UNI - W
vs Iowa - W
@Tulsa - W
vs Texas - L
@ TT - W
@ Baylor - L
vs OSU - L
@ KSU - W
vs TCU - W
@ OU - L
vs KU - W
@ WVU - W

LOL at myself; I've been drinking too much kool-aid. A couple months ago I though that the ceiling for this season would be 8-4, and after one week of practice that record is now my expectation. By the time the UNI game rolls around I'm going to have them at 12-0 and in the BCS championship game.
 
boyd said:
8-5, but we must kick the hoks butt. It is the most important game of the year, this year and every year. We need to not only beat them, but put are foot on their throats. I believe Jack Trice will do that for us this year. His spirit will be there. He will be on the field. Our players and fans will go crazy. It is one of the biggest stories in college football. They will make a movie of it, like 42.
Click to expand...


Go back to your Hok hole, troll.
 
I tried posting what I really thought of your post. It wouldn't go through. Needless to say. You are way off base. I bleed Cardinal and Gold. Watch your mouth in the future!
CYUL8R said:
Go back to your Hok hole, troll.
Click to expand...
 
Pass the Kool-Aid for my predictions

UNI - W
Iowa - W
@ Tulsa - W
Texas - L
@ Texas Tech - W/L
@ Baylor - W/L
Oklahoma State - L
@ Kansas State - W
TCU - W
@ Oklahoma - L
Kansas - W
@ West Virginia - W

We get one of the two in Lubbock/Waco. Finally beat Skeletor in Manhattan. The wheels come off of TCU so it isn't a huge upset when we beat them in Ames.

8-4 (5-4). I honestly think we could do this and not have a "big" win in the bunch. OSU, UT, and OU could be atop the conference, and we could lose to all three and still get 8 or even 9 wins.
 
jaretac said:
Haven't seen one of these for a while, with media day behind us and practice already started, lets hear them.

[TABLE="width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Vs UNI
[/TD]
[TD]Good solid first win, 28-3W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs Iowa
[/TD]
[TD]Another close win this year, 17-14W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Tulsa
[/TD]
[TD]Offense starts sparking and we start 3-0, 38-28W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs Texas
[/TD]
[TD]Closer than most expect, but we fall short 35-32L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Tech
[/TD]
[TD]Tech is hurting, 42-24W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Baylor
[/TD]
[TD]Three road trips in four weeks, we fall short, 32-22L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs OSU
[/TD]
[TD]Another tough game, another tough loss, 42-32L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ KSU
[/TD]
[TD]Take KSU off guard and finally get them, 32-20W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs TCU
[/TD]
[TD]We start off with the led but TCU comes back, 28-24L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ OU
[/TD]
[TD]ISU 5-4, 2-4 coming into OU, Rhoads upset special 38-32W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs KU
[/TD]
[TD]ISU dominates, 42-17W
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ WVU
[/TD]
[TD]Finish off in a good way, 35-32W

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Click to expand...


Without going into actually analyzing your picks there is no way that one of the teams will score 32 points 6 times.

That means that there are either two point conversions or some weird scoring. I know it could happen but not likely
 
CykoAGR said:
Without going into actually analyzing your picks there is no way that one of the teams will score 32 points 6 times.

That means that there are either two point conversions or some weird scoring. I know it could happen but not likely
Click to expand...

Didn't you hear? The entirety of the Big 12 agreed to forgo extra points after touchdowns, and go for 2. 32 is the new 28.
 
Rhoadhoused said:
[TABLE="class: cms_table, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]vs UNI[/TD]
[TD]95% chance to win[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs Iowa[/TD]
[TD]65% chance to win[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Tulsa[/TD]
[TD]70% chance to win[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs Texas[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Tech[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ Baylor[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs OSU[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ KSU[/TD]
[TD]55%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs TCU[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ OU[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vs KU[/TD]
[TD]85%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]@ WVU[/TD]
[TD]50%

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That puts us at a prediction of 6.4 wins for me. I think this is the best way to do it. It's a good style for discussion too. I personally think it is silly to just declare that you have a hunch that we are going to upset some team two months beforehand and add that as a W on a prediction.
Click to expand...

I agree with the chart, I like the percentages of winning better than a score prediction.
I don't see Tech having the uppper hand except their at home advantage.
I think they struggle with Kansas, we play the at 2 wins 3 losses.

[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 0"]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2567, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]Fri, Aug 30[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]8:00 PM ET lose[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2617, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Sat, Sept 7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1 win

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2628, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]Thu, Sept 12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]7:30 PM ET lose[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-326, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Sat, Sept 21[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1 win[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2305, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]Sat, Oct 5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"]TBD lose[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-66, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]Sat, Oct 12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left"]TBD If we get the pistol firing we win.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
A 5000 draw Monte Carlo analysis using the following starting win likelihoods:

[TABLE="width: 768"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]UNI[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]IOWA[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTulsa[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Texas[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTech[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]at Baylor[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]OSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atKSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atOU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]KU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atWVU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.85[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


produced the following win probabilities for the season

[TABLE="width: 128"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]# of Wins[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]10.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average over all simulations: Wins: 5.98 Losses: 6.02

Probability of 5-7 or better: 83.28%
Probability of 6-6 or better: 62.06%
Probability of 4-8 or worse: 16.72%
 
Last edited:
Cyclophile1 said:
A 5000 draw Monte Carlo analysis using the following starting win likelihoods:

[TABLE="width: 768"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]UNI[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]IOWA[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTulsa[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Texas[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTech[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]at Baylor[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]OSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atKSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atOU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]KU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atWVU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.85[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


produced the following win probabilities for the season

[TABLE="width: 128"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]# of Wins[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]10.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average over all simulations: Wins: 5.98 Losses: 6.02

Probability of 5-7 or better: 83.28%
Probability of 6-6 or better: 62.06%
Probability of 4-8 or worse: 16.72%
Click to expand...

This is what real predictions look like. Nice. Well done.
 
Rhoadhoused said:
This is what real predictions look like. Nice. Well done.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Same MC analysis using your starting win % produce the following (5000 draws):

Wins: 6.38 Losses: 5.62

[TABLE="width: 128"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]# of Wins[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]2.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]8.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]17.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]23.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]23.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]15.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]6.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Probability of 5-7 or better: 88.42%
Probability of 6-6 or better: 71.34%
Probability of 4-8 or worse: 11.58%


Cheers
 
I think they break down something like this:

UNI & Kansas are must wins and CPR wins these games and we go 2-0 vs these teams

Iowa, Tulsa, WVU, TTU, and KSU are all games that I think ISU has a great chance to win but might not be favored in any except for maybe Iowa because it is at home but with the unpredictability of this game historically I put it as a “toss-up”. Obviously ISU needs to win at least 4 of these games to go bowling OR steal a game where they will likely be bigger “dogs” according to Vegas. Win all 5 and it’s the best regular season record in the CPR era and potential at a favorable bowl game. Prediction is we go 4-1 beating Iowa, Tulsa and 2 of the other 3.

TCU, TX and @ BU are games that I give ISU an outside shot of winning. TCU and TX because they are home games. TCU comes to Ames late in the season and TX because I’m not sold on Ash as a QB and Jack Trice will be ROCKING especially if ISU is 3-0 and its prime time. I know a lot of people have Baylor as a dark horse but that defense last year was horrible and their QB hasn’t even thrown a pass in college. Call me skeptical. I predict that ISU wins one of these games.

The OSU and OU games are not favorable in my opinion. ISU’s record against OU speaks for itself AND the game is in Norman where OU is tough to beat (although not as much of a lock as it was a few years ago). To me OSU was either the best team that we played or the worst matchup for ISU last year. The first few drives by ISU were good and then it was a train wreck. Both offensively and defensively ISU was dominated. I don’t like ISU to win either of these games.

Result 7 wins
 
I see a lot of toss-ups games on this year's schedule. I like our chances against Iowa, @Tulsa and @Tech better than @Baylor, @WVU, @KSU, and TCU. While none are unwinnable, I tend to think that Texas, OSU and @OU are each very unlikely given our youth.

Nothing is a gimme for us, but UNI is about as close as you can get, and even then they rise up and play very motivated for us. Don't sleep on them, but I expect a win. Pretty much the same for KU, despite the fact that I think they will be improved. It's at our place late in the year and KU could have very little at stake outside of playing the spoiler.

It comes down to how do we play in those seven tossup games. I'm encouraged by Shane Burnham's assessment of Jensen, and I truly hope that Coe can be productive. If the middle of the DL can be solid, I think we'll end up being a decent defense. I believe that Wally will get the LBs ready, despite the inexperience. I think we'll be in the 4-2-5 an awful lot this year, so we're really talking about JeVohn Miller stepping up alongside George. I have faith in the secondary, and think this may be the most assembled talent we've had back there in a many years.

I also like what I'm hearing about the OL playing with some fire. It's the time for these guys to play some smashball, and Klenakis sounds like a motivator. We've needed that. I think we finally have weapons at receivers spots that is equal to our peers in the league, after YEARS of being deficient. The RB corps is solid I think, no draft picks in the group but there is some talent and experience, and great depth.

No idea how it will happen at this point, but depending on how things develop, I could see 6-6 from these guys. That would be a solid year, building toward a very good nucleus in 2014 (which I see as our step forward year).

Cheers
 
7 wins + bowl win. Expectations through the roof in 2014. Start of the best and longest run of success in Iowa State History. The talent is young but its still talent. I believe this will be a much better team than the first 3 years and a team on par with last year with a couple more favorable breaks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Koolman
Aclone said:
I dunno about that. I don't see "History" listed anywhere on the cyclones.com roster, suiting up for Paul Rhoads.
Click to expand...

Very well, but I was using Goothrey's "predictions" and "history" comparison, and the "history" was better. (So I assume in was short-term Rhoads history that nudged the record upward by a game.
e: Season Predictions

UNI
Iowa
@ Tulsa
Texas
@ Texas Tech
@ Baylor
oSu
@ KSU
TCU
@ OU
Kansas
@ WVU


5-7 (2-7)


History says:


UNI
Iowa
@ Tulsa
Texas
@ Texas Tech
@ Baylor
oSu
@ KSU
TCU
@ OU
Kansas
@ WVU


6-6 (3-6)​



 
I like this 'class of competition' line of thinking, so here goes.

UNI, Iowa, Kansas, Tulsa = 4 W, 0 L
All 4 of these are very winnable and if we DON'T follow through it's going to be a very rough year. Yes, Tulsa handed it to us in the bowl but there were many reasons for that. Bottom line is we have the bigger motivation for that game now since we need to win the tiebreaker, and then never play the same team 3 times in 13 months EVER again. UNI is the next most troubling simply because it's the first game and they have a couple decent weapons on that squad. Iowa and Kansas...I'm actually more worried about Kansas but they are both at home so should be wins against sub-par squads.

@TTech, @Baylor, @KSU, @WVU, Texas = 3 W, 2 L
I think these are the toss-up games this year. All of them except Texas have new, unproven QB issues to resolve. Texas has been under-performing for several years now, and we get them in prime time, at home, on ESPN. WVU should be the 'easiest' win of the bunch - I mean, that defense was atrocious and their offense is gone, but you just never know. In any case, I'll play the odds and say we grab 3 of the 5 simply due to our improved offense and other variables including a bit of luck.

Okie Light, @Sooners, TCU = 1W, 2 L
This is the roughest patch we'll have to wade through, yet there is still an upset waiting in that bunch somewhere. I think we get shown the door early by 2 of the 3, but we win a nail-biter to come out with a win from that slate. The fact that 2 of the 3 are at home gives us a fighting chance to win one.

Overall record, 8-4 (5-4)

Looking at the whole season at once is difficult - but (for me at least) breaking it into these chunks seems to make sense. Sure, there is some kool-aid baked in to this, but this just feels like the year we actually get things rolling. We'll know a heck of a lot more in about 20 days ;-)
 
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