A 5000 draw Monte Carlo analysis using the following starting win likelihoods:
[TABLE="width: 768"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]UNI[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]IOWA[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTulsa[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Texas[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTech[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]at Baylor[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]OSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atKSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atOU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]KU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atWVU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.85[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
produced the following win probabilities for the season
[TABLE="width: 128"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]# of Wins[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]10.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Average over all simulations: Wins: 5.98 Losses: 6.02
Probability of 5-7 or better: 83.28%
Probability of 6-6 or better: 62.06%
Probability of 4-8 or worse: 16.72%