Season Predictions

I think I called a 4-8 or 5-7 in another thread. Who knew I would end up being a sunshine pumper with that prediction. :(
 
A 5000 draw Monte Carlo analysis using the following starting win likelihoods:

[TABLE="width: 768"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]UNI[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]IOWA[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTulsa[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Texas[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atTech[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]at Baylor[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]OSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atKSU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atOU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]KU[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]atWVU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0.95[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.85[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


produced the following win probabilities for the season

[TABLE="width: 128"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 64"]# of Wins[/TD]
[TD="width: 64"]Likelihood[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]11.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]21.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]25.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]10.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Average over all simulations: Wins: 5.98 Losses: 6.02

Probability of 5-7 or better: 83.28%
Probability of 6-6 or better: 62.06%
Probability of 4-8 or worse: 16.72%

Just bumping this to point out no one really called this as a down year. Also we're at least on pace to be a statistical anomaly, so we got that going for us.
 
Just bumping this to point out no one really called this as a down year. Also we're at least on pace to be a statistical anomaly, so we got that going for us.

Back in August when the sunshine pumpers were "in control of CF", you got trashed if you said Iowa State was going to be 3-9 or 4-8, so people probably just didn't post it for that reason. (Obviously ISU is on track to be worse than that...)

Now that the doomsday crowd is in control, anyone who's optimistic gets trashed for saying Iowa State might be good next year.

This is known as the Circle of CF, which I am trademarking.
 
Back in August when the sunshine pumpers were "in control of CF", you got trashed if you said Iowa State was going to be 3-9 or 4-8, so people probably just didn't post it for that reason. (Obviously ISU is on track to be worse than that...)

Now that the doomsday crowd is in control, anyone who's optimistic gets trashed for saying Iowa State might be good next year.

This is known as the Circle of CF, which I am trademarking.
I was in the 3-9, 4-8 crowd so I'm well aware. I just love how these people want to have their cake and eat it too as far as being "right" all the time.
 
I am not sure what I predicted, but I don't think it's a great idea to take joy in saying "I knew we'd suck."
 
I am not sure what I predicted, but I don't think it's a great idea to take joy in saying "I knew we'd suck."
I'm saying it's funny that being realistic is frowned upon on here, and then people try to save face by saying they knew it'd be a bad year all along. I wish we were way better than we are.
 
The good news is that the teams ISU has lost to so far have only 2 losses in the Big 12, while the teams they still have to play have 16 losses in the Big 12.

The bad news is one of those teams ISU still has to play is Oklahoma.
 
I remember back in the spring I believe it was when CW himself thought we were 3 win team this year.

But then as the summer practices started and the coaches started pumping us all up about our talent level, then CW I think changed his prediction to 5 wins maybe? I can't remember.

Anyway, I do remember him a long time ago thinking we were a 3 win team. Who would have guessed at the time that would be wishful thinking on his part? Yikes.
 
The good news is that the teams ISU has lost to so far have only 2 losses in the Big 12, while the teams they still have to play have 16 losses in the Big 12.

The bad news is one of those teams ISU still has to play is Oklahoma.

I believe I predicted 5-7. I think that its a real possibility. vs. TCU, vs. KU, @WVU, @KSU, @OU. I see some winnable games here.

The difference between 1-11/2-10 and 4-8/5-7 will be so huge with the amount of fan support this team will receive next year.

But go go ahead and talk about how stupid I am.
 
Just bumping this to point out no one really called this as a down year. Also we're at least on pace to be a statistical anomaly, so we got that going for us.

Some of the those initial win percentages for the games, in hindsight, look very optimistic. We're obviously WAY off, but I still think we have three games where we have a decent chance.
 
I'm saying it's funny that being realistic is frowned upon on here, and then people try to save face by saying they knew it'd be a bad year all along. I wish we were way better than we are.

I do agree, I don't want people being two-faced about it. Let's just hope we finish strong, no matter how bleak it looks.
 
Why be scared of any team anymore?
CPR's teams are unpredictable, but right on the edge of something fantastic.

I'll go with 8 wins, but I'm not smart enough to know where they come from. 3-0 entering conference play again, and then 5 more.


I went way too big, but with no regrets.
I've got no problem believing that we should be taking steps forward instead of backwards.

Next year's prediction will probably adjust downwards by a few wins, which speaks of major problems to me.
 

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