or...he could get it turned around and be our best player
Exactly, the only way this is an unacceptable risk is if you think Fred can let himself get psyched out, a la Mac with WJ, if the situation goes south. I think Fred has too strong of a personality to have that happen.
If it does work out, and the guy does well, it only improves ISU standing, and will probably be the biggest thing Hoiberg does to grow his legend in his first year as head coach. Not to mention you've got a veteran head coach sitting on your bench now to help you deal with this kid.