Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[HFCS]

found this post about 2022 attendance avgs for every school - pretty interesting and magnifies just how little interest in PAC 12 football there is. every team but Kansas in Big 12 was 45th or better in attendance.
2/3 of PAC 12 was 47th or worse. USC and Wash only 2 to barely make top 25.

(i think parenthesis is total home games they had)

AVERAGE
76,587 - SEC
66,062 - Big Ten
58,723 - Big 12
47,663 - ACC
44,109 - Pac 12

28,576 - AAC
22,626 - MWC
19,892 - Sun Belt
18,038 - CUSA
14,262 - MAC

BIG 12
6. Texas (7) - 100,242
13. Oklahoma (6) - 83,835
28. Iowa State (7) - 57,344
29. Texas Tech (7) - 57,149
33. Oklahoma State (7) - 54,735
38. Kansas State (7) - 51,165
41. West Virginia (6) - 47,658
43. TCU (6) - 46,562
45. Baylor (6) - 45,463
49. Kansas (6) - 43,076

ACC
14. Clemson (7) - 80,694
21. Florida State (7) - 67,254
23. Virginia Tech (5) - 64,357
31. NC State (7) - 56,526
34. Pittsburgh (7) - 54,710
40. North Carolina (6) - 47,933
44. Miami (7) - 45,711
52. Louisville (6) - 41,692
56. Syracuse (7) - 40,828
57. Virginia (6) - 40,681
61. Georgia Tech (6) - 36,625
62. Boston College (6) - 35,706
67. Wake Forest (7) - 30,053
84. Duke (6) - 24,505

BIG TEN
1. Michigan (8) - 110,246
2. Penn State (7) - 107,379
3. Ohio State (8) - 104,663
11. Nebraska (7) - 86,637
17. Wisconsin (7) - 74,159
19. Iowa (7) - 69,250
20. Michigan State (7) - 69,047
30. Purdue (6) - 57,129
39. Rutgers (6) - 50,756
42. Indiana (7) - 46,906
46. Minnesota (7) - 45,019
50. Illinois (7) - 43,048
65. Maryland (7) - 31,934
72. Northwestern (6) - 28,697

PAC 12
22. Southern Cal (7) - 64,487
24. Washington (7) - 62,933
32. Oregon (6) - 54,950
37. Utah (6) - 52,057
47. Arizona (7) - 44,209
48. Arizona State (6) - 43,081
51. Colorado (6) - 42,847
53. UCLA (8) - 41,593
59. California (7) - 38,596
68. Stanford (6) - 29,965
74. Oregon State (6) - 28,400
80. Washington State (7) - 26,185

SEC
4. LSU (7) - 100,596
5. Tennessee (7) - 100,532
7. Alabama (7) - 98,981
8. Texas A&M (7) - 97,213
9. Georgia (6) - 92,746
10. Florida (7) - 87,180
12. Auburn (8) - 85,203
16. South Carolina (7) - 75,785
18. Arkansas (7) - 73,155
25. Mississippi (7) - 62,575
26. Kentucky (8) - 60,289
35. Missouri (7) - 54,525
36. Mississippi State (7) - 54,250
71. Vanderbilt (6) - 29,193

Our 2 or 4 pac additions are higher than I'd have guessed. At least the 4 last place attendance schools are the ones in trouble for Pac if you're searching for fairness.

UCLA's # can't be real butts in seats, I'm guessing 80% of those tickets never used. It's empty even on the typical 75 and sunny day.

 

[Clonehomer]

So is BY on the phone right now with the PAC bowl affiliates to wrap them up? Going to need a good bowl lineup to feed all the mouths.

 

[CoKane]

Came home sick from work, went to take a nap, and a nuke was dropped on the college sports world. Wow

 

[CoKane]

So is BY on the phone right now with the PAC bowl affiliates to wrap them up? Going to need a good bowl lineup to feed all the mouths.

Bowls won't matter after 2026 but until then I hope so

 

[Dr.bannedman]

Next media deal will be interesting. Will these top BIG schools accept a lower $ amount or will they break off and chase the $$$? I could see a fallen Neb applying to the BigXII then.

the next move is the distilling of the mega conferences imo

 

[3GenClone]

 

[Cloneon]

The reality is that the pie is shrinking not expanding. SEC won’t add an ASU unless they can offload a Vanderbilt or MSU.

The linear media pie is shrinking. After BY did a great job of getting in line first and getting both current linear players to pay the Big 12 I am confident that ESPN/FOX had lunch, and talked about how to lower media rights costs, and the PAC12 was in the crosshairs. Right after the B1G were told to add USC/UCLA it was over. They didn’t even want to bid on the media.

Eventually we will be caught up in the crosshairs. And as it happens the media pie will continue to shrink. Then the big 2 will shed low performers, shrinking it more.

Then with hardly any revenue and very few teams, the last few standing will look around and say “F it, we need to be in regional conferences like those things we had back in the day.”

And the circle of life is complete.

It'll only be complete if the P2 implode because not enough bottom feeders.

 

[DSM4Cy]

I predict waning interest in college sports in general over the next 10-15 years, shrinking the pot for everyone.

Yes, this is correct. CFB in particular, which is already in decline in both viewership and attendance, is going to become even more regional (MW & South) than it already is simply because of the decline in youth participation numbers. Basketball and soccer will continue their rise.

Note: I am not saying media $$ will decrease. Live sports are still the top way for advertisers to get eyes in an ever-fracturing media landscape. And I’m also not saying football won’t still be the top sport. But the trendlines all point toward CFB continuing to gradually decline. This is only going to get worse with fewer and fewer schools having a legitimate chance to win it all. Additionally, I don’t think many leagues are pricing in the decrease in attendance that will occur when all these schools who have won a ton of games are no longer winning as much. There are only so many wins to go around in a league. Someone has to lose games.

 

[HFCS]

I actually think the Big 10 has made themselves slightly vulnerable going forward. They have a ton of egos and mouths to feed once its time for the next media rights negotiation. Plus add all of the travel challenges they have. They will be completely fine until 2030 because money will cure all until then. But that next cycle might be challenging unless they are consistently getting 3+ teams into the playoffs. They really need on field performance to go up a notch now compared to their usual Ohio St. plus one other school situation. And even then there might just be less money available for college sports media rights generally. I'd much rather be the SEC than the Big 10 going forward.

I think B10 would be REALLY short sighted to add two dormant or non existent fan bases in Cal/Stanford.

They already have a few anemic fb fan bases like Rutgers, Maryland, the Indiana schools.

The revenue juggernaut of PSU/Mich/OSU doesn't have unlimited pull and I'm not sure at some point the true passion of SEC teams doesn't leave them in the dust too if we really get into the $ being only about true passion from true fans and not media markets.

It's also just crazy with ACC still out there.

 

[Pitt_Clone]

no **** them

Also, drowning man is "showing interest" in climbing onto a boat.

 

[Clonehomer]

the next move is the distilling of the mega conferences imo

Possibly. We’ve seen peak TV contracts IMO. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the next round was incentive based on subscriptions and viewership.

 

[Triggermv]

 

[JP4CY]

The playoffs will expand past 12 pretty damn soon, IMO, with these gigantic conferences.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Bowls won't matter after 2026 but until then I hope so

Bowls don’t matter now. They’re just for fun.

 

[Kinch]

I actually think the Big 10 has made themselves slightly vulnerable going forward. They have a ton of egos and mouths to feed once it’s time for the next media rights negotiation. Plus add all of the travel challenges they have. They will be completely fine until 2030 because money will cure all until then. But that next cycle might be challenging unless they are consistently getting 3+ teams into the playoffs. They really need on field performance to go up a notch now compared to their usual Ohio St. plus one other school situation. And even then there might just be less money available for college sports media rights generally. I'd much rather be the SEC than the Big 10 going forward.

Exactly. In five or ten years, Ohio State and Michigan will say $70 million is not enough, but their media partners can’t cough up any more and there are no more blue bloods to poach unless they want to nuke ACC. Then the only way to keep them in the conference is unequal revenue sharing. See how that goes. Ohio State, Michigan and Alabama all have options.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Bowls don’t matter now. They’re just for fun.

Bowls haven't mattered for a long time now - not since the BCS (or its predecessor) became a thing.

 

[2speedy1]

Bowls don’t matter now. They’re just for fun.

Outside NY6, main bowls did they ever really matter? They have always been just for fun, or a reward for a good year.

The NY6 will all be playoff spots now. So in the end those few bowls that are NY6, or used to be BCS championships, or possible champ games before the BCS, have always been the only ones that mattered.

It will be more of the same really.

 

[brett108]

It'll only be complete if the P2 implode because not enough bottom feeders.

The media revenue is drying up for linear tv. So the contracts that can be offered are going to get smaller. Which will push out the lower value teams. And then you’re right, the money won’t be worth the losses and the travel. And that’s how we get back to real regional competition again.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Bowls haven't mattered for a long time now - not since the BCS (or its predecessor) became a thing.

Bowls matter so little now that Dochterman or some Hawk talking head had a rare good idea - the B1G should make its own low-tier bowl in Las Vegas for its own 6-6 or 7-5 type teams that didn’t play each other in the regular season.

 

[knowlesjam]

I think B10 would be REALLY short sighted to add two dormant or non existent fan bases in Cal/Stanford.

They already have a few anemic fb fan bases like Rutgers, Maryland, the Indiana schools.

The revenue juggernaut of PSU/Mich/OSU doesn't have unlimited pull and I'm not sure at some point the true passion of SEC teams doesn't leave them in the dust too if we really get into the $ being only about true passion from true fans and not media markets.

It's also just crazy with ACC still out there.

Don't forget to include Northwestern in the anemic fan base category. Add in the current coaching BS and woof. NW going the Stanford/Cal route with respect to football.