Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[loyalson4evatru]

found this post about 2022 attendance avgs for every school - pretty interesting and magnifies just how little interest in PAC 12 football there is. every team but Kansas in Big 12 was 45th or better in attendance.
2/3 of PAC 12 was 47th or worse. USC and Wash only 2 to barely make top 25.

(i think parenthesis is total home games they had)

AVERAGE
76,587 - SEC
66,062 - Big Ten
58,723 - Big 12
47,663 - ACC
44,109 - Pac 12

28,576 - AAC
22,626 - MWC
19,892 - Sun Belt
18,038 - CUSA
14,262 - MAC

BIG 12
6. Texas (7) - 100,242
13. Oklahoma (6) - 83,835
28. Iowa State (7) - 57,344
29. Texas Tech (7) - 57,149
33. Oklahoma State (7) - 54,735
38. Kansas State (7) - 51,165
41. West Virginia (6) - 47,658
43. TCU (6) - 46,562
45. Baylor (6) - 45,463
49. Kansas (6) - 43,076

ACC
14. Clemson (7) - 80,694
21. Florida State (7) - 67,254
23. Virginia Tech (5) - 64,357
31. NC State (7) - 56,526
34. Pittsburgh (7) - 54,710
40. North Carolina (6) - 47,933
44. Miami (7) - 45,711
52. Louisville (6) - 41,692
56. Syracuse (7) - 40,828
57. Virginia (6) - 40,681
61. Georgia Tech (6) - 36,625
62. Boston College (6) - 35,706
67. Wake Forest (7) - 30,053
84. Duke (6) - 24,505

BIG TEN
1. Michigan (8) - 110,246
2. Penn State (7) - 107,379
3. Ohio State (8) - 104,663
11. Nebraska (7) - 86,637
17. Wisconsin (7) - 74,159
19. Iowa (7) - 69,250
20. Michigan State (7) - 69,047
30. Purdue (6) - 57,129
39. Rutgers (6) - 50,756
42. Indiana (7) - 46,906
46. Minnesota (7) - 45,019
50. Illinois (7) - 43,048
65. Maryland (7) - 31,934
72. Northwestern (6) - 28,697

PAC 12
22. Southern Cal (7) - 64,487
24. Washington (7) - 62,933
32. Oregon (6) - 54,950
37. Utah (6) - 52,057
47. Arizona (7) - 44,209
48. Arizona State (6) - 43,081
51. Colorado (6) - 42,847
53. UCLA (8) - 41,593
59. California (7) - 38,596
68. Stanford (6) - 29,965
74. Oregon State (6) - 28,400
80. Washington State (7) - 26,185

SEC
4. LSU (7) - 100,596
5. Tennessee (7) - 100,532
7. Alabama (7) - 98,981
8. Texas A&M (7) - 97,213
9. Georgia (6) - 92,746
10. Florida (7) - 87,180
12. Auburn (8) - 85,203
16. South Carolina (7) - 75,785
18. Arkansas (7) - 73,155
25. Mississippi (7) - 62,575
26. Kentucky (8) - 60,289
35. Missouri (7) - 54,525
36. Mississippi State (7) - 54,250
71. Vanderbilt (6) - 29,193

 

[BryceC]

The ABOR still needs to sign off… and that’s how Crow and ASU are holding up the process. And that’s why people who keep insisting “take AZ and stop at 14… **** ASU” are being extremely shortsighted. Granted, if Crow insists keeping ASU in a dead PAC X, can’t help the stupid. But taking AZ and ASU as a package has always been the least dramatic option.

No. We just take Utah instead. The Arizona BoR is completely powerless now. No way they leave 15-20 million on the table for one of their schools

 

[GBlade]

Next media deal will be interesting. Will these top BIG schools accept a lower $ amount or will they break off and chase the $$$? I could see a fallen Neb applying to the BigXII then.

 

[HFCS]

So when do we get to officially start our WE SURVIVED megathread? It's finally our turn to be the grave dancers instead of down in the graves.

Partial jimlad. ASU and UU are being pricks, **** them. I feel hard for the Wazzu, OreSt crowd though. Been there.

When we get the final stable new lineup...at 14 or 16...I think I'm going to do some statistical analysis on how much we've improved or slipped on the field vs the old 10 with OUT.

In hoops with Arizona locked in there has to be some improvement, if not a total % improvement we've improved in terms of # of programs who have been Final Four contenders or top ten ranked teams. Arizona/Houston obliterate Texas/OU.

In fb I'm sure we've slipped in terms of % quality but in terms of net contenders for playoff spots probably stayed about even given UCF and Cincy have had teams recently that would've been safely in a 12 team playoff. BYU and Colorado have a ton of untapped FB upside.

 

[HOTDON]

So, what is George Kliavkoff's next move?

He's gotta start cancelling the thousands of Apple accounts he spent the last three days feverishly opening under usernames like: PACfan, BeaverBeliever and WUORhorse.

 

[Bader]

Next media deal will be interesting. Will these top BIG schools accept a lower $ amount or will they break off and chase the $$$? I could see a fallen Neb applying to the BigXII then.

I do not understand how the B1G is going to get a 2 billion dollar per year media rights deal in 2030. By the end of the current deal they're supposed to be distributing 100 million per year to each of the (current) 16 teams. 1.8 billion per year just to sustain that

 

[exCyDing]

They couldn't have geographically done it worse. The distance from L.A. to Seattle is also quite far. This triangle will be problematic for the B1G.

It's easy to underestimate just how far it is between the Seattle and LA, it's basically the same as Dallas to Duluth.

LA to Seattle: 960 miles
LA to Lincoln, NE: 1,269 miles

 

[jdoggivjc]

No. We just take Utah instead. The Arizona BoR is completely powerless now. No way they leave 15-20 million on the table for one of their schools

Bleh. Utah as a whole has been worse than ASU in all of this.

 

[BryceC]

The new scheduling system in the B1G has every program playing every other program at least twice every four years. So if Iowa plays only Nebby, Minny, Rutgers, Indiana, NW, Maryland, Illinois, Wisconsin, and UCLA one year, they'll be playing all of USC, tOSU, Michigan, PSU the next year.

With 18 teams, and 3 protected rivals isn’t that literally impossible?

 

[Gunnerclone]

I’m done doubting the twitter randos on this round of realignment.

 

[nfrine]

What happens to the Rose Bowl? I had a blast the last time I went for the McCaffrey show!

Me too! It was a good time.

 

[iahawks]

I do not understand how the B1G is going to get a 2 billion dollar per year media rights deal in 2030. By the end of the current deal they're supposed to be distributing 100 million per year to each of the (current) 16 teams. 1.8 billion per year just to sustain that

I honestly think that Oregon and Washington will reduce per team payout a little once they get to full share status. But the BTN just added a lot more inventory for their channel so I suspect that the BTN payout will now be larger as a result. Plus now they are nationwide and can offer games in every time slot.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I’m done doubting the twitter randos on this round of realignment.

Swaim has been wrong about as often as Canzano.

 

[Cloneon]

I don’t think the MWC will dissolve: they’re the ones with a media deal (even if it’s bad); the PAC X has nothing. What will probably happen is the PAC X will dissolve and the MWC will accept the teams and rebrand - probably as the new PAC Y.

Don't forget they have a $70 million debt on their books which will require addressing.

 

[HFCS]

They couldn't have geographically done it worse. The distance from L.A. to Seattle is also quite far. This triangle will be problematic for the B1G.

I think the B12 footprint makes more logistical sense than the new B10 footprint.

We're not locked into one tight area/region or one time zone like the old Big 8, original Big 12 or Pac 10/12...that's not good in modern era. Yet we have all the time zones now but in a much tighter footprint...AZ is pacific time for FB and Mountain time for basketball if people didn't know.

 

[isutrevman]

I do not understand how the B1G is going to get a 2 billion dollar per year media rights deal in 2030. By the end of the current deal they're supposed to be distributing 100 million per year to each of the (current) 16 teams. 1.8 billion per year just to sustain that

I predict waning interest in college sports in general over the next 10-15 years, shrinking the pot for everyone.

 

[Clonehomer]

I do not understand how the B1G is going to get a 2 billion dollar per year media rights deal in 2030. By the end of the current deal they're supposed to be distributing 100 million per year to each of the (current) 16 teams. 1.8 billion per year just to sustain that

The $100m was the total payout. While TV is a significant chunk of that, it is not everything. But the Big10 better start performing better in the NCAA tournament if they want to get there.

 

[brett108]

Yeah, I'm sure the vast majority of arrogant fans at ASU and even Utah have done a 180 in the past few days and now would love a Big 12 invite.

But the reality is we already have Arizona and BYU on board.

We should ask the media partners if ASU and Utah give us more $$$ and only add them if we do, don't add them if they don't maintain or increase payout. They'll be there later, we're no longer in danger of being eclipsed by ACC/Pac. Neither B10/SEC is going to expand with Utah and there's an incredibly slim chance (not impossible) the SEC looks at the board and takes ASU. ASU's best non Big 12 chance is some day the SEC looks at them as a way to even out numbers the way BY has been looking at Uconn.

The reality is that the pie is shrinking not expanding. SEC won’t add an ASU unless they can offload a Vanderbilt or MSU.

The linear media pie is shrinking. After BY did a great job of getting in line first and getting both current linear players to pay the Big 12 I am confident that ESPN/FOX had lunch, and talked about how to lower media rights costs, and the PAC12 was in the crosshairs. Right after the B1G were told to add USC/UCLA it was over. They didn’t even want to bid on the media.

Eventually we will be caught up in the crosshairs. And as it happens the media pie will continue to shrink. Then the big 2 will shed low performers, shrinking it more.

Then with hardly any revenue and very few teams, the last few standing will look around and say “F it, we need to be in regional conferences like those things we had back in the day.”

And the circle of life is complete.

 

[iahawks]

I predict waning interest in college sports in general over the next 10-15 years, shrinking the pot for everyone.

Yep, once these bluebloods truly figure out the power of NIL and the transfer portal, it will be all over for most schools down in the pecking order and with that apathy will set in.

 

[KennyPratt42]

I actually think the Big 10 has made themselves slightly vulnerable going forward. They have a ton of egos and mouths to feed once its time for the next media rights negotiation. Plus add all of the travel challenges they have. They will be completely fine until 2030 because money will cure all until then. But that next cycle might be challenging unless they are consistently getting 3+ teams into the playoffs. They really need on field performance to go up a notch now compared to their usual Ohio St. plus one other school situation. And even then there might just be less money available for college sports media rights generally. I'd much rather be the SEC than the Big 10 going forward.