Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

ORWA trying to bully the league like Texas is overblown.

Assuming you get #14–be it UA, UConn, whoever—if ORWA want in, you have three alternatives:

1.) You can let ORWA in.
2.) You can let two others in, probably ASU and UU.
3.) You can stand pat.

ORWA can only bully the league if the schools decide that Option 1 is so much better than Options 2 and 3 that it is worth being bullied. If that is the cost benefit, so be it. But I doubt it will be.

If ORWA joins and finds that the rest of the league won’t do their bidding, they can leave.
Then the league is back at Option 2 and Option 3. If they don’t leave, then the league wins straight up.

You’re not out much by taking Option 1 because Options 2 and 3 will always be there. Sure, you might take a PR hit if they left, but ORWA aren’t guaranteed a viable place elsewhere, and you’d also get their exit fees. The other risk is that maybe UU and ASU aren’t as desirable of backfill after a few years in the wilderness. They’d have hurt for visibility, but no doubt they would have dominated the MW-Pac in the meantime.

The risk is minimal and the reward is worthwhile.
PLUS, as argued above, the 'out-of-subscription' box will continue to be a bone of contention in the B1G. I just don't see the B1G coming to terms with themselves to add OR/WA. WHICH, leaves OR/WA with pretty much no reasonable options (unless the P12 pulls a rabbit out of their hat). I expect UA/OR/WA to B12 with anyone of them being the next domino making the rest non-negotiable. And I see FOX pushing that.
 
I'm at the point right now where I just want to see AZ jump to the Big 12 pretty soon... and then be done with it for a little while. Unless Fox decides they will give their full 12 million to 2 additional teams to go to 16? If they do, I wouldn't mind adding ASU and Utah.

I think Oregon and WA might be more of a pipe dream at this point. Sounds like they are dead set on going to the B1G, and I don't think I want to add them just to lose them in a couple years.
This
 
You mean the current system?
True, but there’s more markers of success - 10-win seasons, divisions/conference title games, conference championships, making the CFP field. There would be fewer of each to go around in a super league.

Plus, the programs that would be in the back half of the super league are used to having other schools to kick around and look down on. Never underestimate the value in having “lessers” for the middle class to look down on. In a super league, those programs are the ones that get kicked around and looked down on.
 
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True, but there’s more markers of success - 10-win seasons, divisions/conference title games, conference championships, making the CFP field. There would be fewer of each to go around in a super league.

Plus, the programs that would be in the back half of the super league are used to having other schools to kick around and look down on. Never underestimate the value in having “lessers” for the middle class to look down on. In a super league, those programs are the ones that get kicked around and looked down on.
That’s why there isn’t going to be a super league
 
I don’t exactly understand the available tv time slots cunumdrum. The B12 did elevate 4 G5s for this season, but it looks like Kliavkoff could single-handedly demote more than that number back to G5 status. There could actually be less P5 vs P5 games to have to spread out.
 
That’s why there isn’t going to be a super league
I think the determining factor on a Super League developing is whether they could draw fan support, or at least viewership from fans outside the League teams. I would hope most ISU fans would continue to be ISU fans unless football ceased to be a thing at ISU.
 
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I don’t exactly understand the available tv time slots cunumdrum. The B12 did elevate 4 G5s for this season, but it looks like Kliavkoff could single-handedly demote more than that number back to G5 status. There could actually be less P5 vs P5 games to have to spread out.
I understand the sentiment. But look at it like golf. In my mind there will be a "cut". The more teams the B12 etc. promote to status hurts us. Why do that? Literally promoting competitors for the same bid/slot.
 
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I don’t exactly understand the available tv time slots cunumdrum.
There are a very limited number of slots for nationally televised games. The rest of the inventory has to go to regional broadcast or Tier 3 media. It's a big deal for teams to get a nationally televised game for exposure, recruiting, etc. Teams like Oregon and Washington would be direct competition for those limited number of slots.
 
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I understand the sentiment. But look at it like golf. In my mind there will be a "cut". The more teams the B12 etc. promote to status hurts us. Why do that? Literally promoting competitors for the same bid/slot.
I agree with that viewpoint 100%. I’m talking about the narrative that the carriers don’t have the time slots if the b1g etc add “new” teams. There really aren’t any “new” teams on the landscape other than our 4 adds this year.
 
Before that happens, there'd be an astronomical number of changes that would have to coincide without contention from 'the 100'. Not to mention the 'segregation' of BBall from Football. I think those numbers will be very enlightening and prevent any super league. Again, can't say it couldn't happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.
We ignore too many variables when we talk about the inevitable super league. For one, there’s no guarantee football doesn’t go the way of boxing in 15 years due to concerns over how violent it is. The whole CTE/brain injury thing isn’t going away…let alone the other injuries.

Beyond that though - there will likely be a move toward soccer and possibly lacrosse. There are already parts of the country where I could reasonably imagine it wouldn’t be a terribly difficult decision for them to retrofit their football stadium into a soccer one…

In the end, as much as we may love football…the media drives a lot of this. They need content and they could absolutely figure out a way get many of us hooked on whatever sport they want.
 
I don't disagree on the first part; talking heads follow the money. Big XII doesn't get to write the narrative, the B10 does.

With Arizona to BigXII, FOX/B10 has additional leverage against UO/Wash to reduce their shares because of the impending PAC implosion. This whole thing is in flux. We'll see where this goes.
Agree, that’s why I don’t think it’s about looking like a villain or a savior, it’s only about $$$. If waiting makes the Big 10 look like a savior, that’s just a perk, the main goal is leverage.
 
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We ignore too many variables when we talk about the inevitable super league. For one, there’s no guarantee football doesn’t go the way of boxing in 15 years due to concerns over how violent it is. The whole CTE/brain injury thing isn’t going away…let alone the other injuries.

Beyond that though - there will likely be a move toward soccer and possibly lacrosse. There are already parts of the country where I could reasonably imagine it wouldn’t be a terribly difficult decision for them to retrofit their football stadium into a soccer one…

In the end, as much as we may love football…the media drives a lot of this. They need content and they could absolutely figure out a way get many of us hooked on whatever sport they want.
I think soccer could and probably will gain some popularity in the U.S. but there's no way it will ever dethrone American football IMO. There's just not enough action, scoring, etc. American sports fans are wired differently from sports fans in other parts of the world. We'll see, but while I do think CTE/violence will impact football, I don't think it will be that major of an impact in terms of its popularity.
 
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I think soccer could and probably will gain some popularity in the U.S. but there's no way it will ever dethrone American football IMO. There's just not enough action, scoring, etc. American sports fans are wired differently from sports fans in other parts of the world. We'll see, but while I do think CTE/violence will impact football, I don't think it will be that major of an impact in terms of its popularity.
Ever* is a very long time. I fully anticipate soccer will outgrow football at some point. Not MLS but international soccer. Football is about 10 mins of action for a whole game, soccer never stops and also is a very tight 2 hours.

The moment a test comes into existence that can measure the presence of CTE in a living individual football is done.
 
Ever* is a very long time. I fully anticipate soccer will outgrow football at some point. Not MLS but international soccer. Football is about 10 mins of action for a whole game, soccer never stops and also is a very tight 2 hours.

The moment a test comes into existence that can measure the presence of CTE in a living individual football is done.
We must have a different definition of “action”.
 
I hope the powers that could make it happen realize exactly why it wouldn’t work. Or everyone other than the most self-centered programs (Ohio St and about 1/3rd of the SEC) decline to join.

I want to say that was one of the reasons why the European soccer superleague never actually got off the ground. Yes, a couple of the biggest teams looked at the money that could be earned and threw their hats into the ring immediately, but everyone else realized someone has to be the losers in that league and declined. As if the UEFA Champions League wasn't enough to drive that point home.
 
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I think soccer could and probably will gain some popularity in the U.S. but there's no way it will ever dethrone American football IMO. There's just not enough action, scoring, etc. American sports fans are wired differently from sports fans in other parts of the world. We'll see, but while I do think CTE/violence will impact football, I don't think it will be that major of an impact in terms of its popularity.
If football fades in popularity, it’ll come more from the player side than the fan’s side. I just don’t see a large number of people turning off football over CTE or other health concerns.

The number of kids playing high school football has fallen off over the last few decades. It would have to pick up way more speed, but it’s conceivable that more kids opt for other sports or high schools start dropping it due to health concerns or insufficient interest.

If I had a son, I think I’d try to steer him towards playing sports other than football. I love watching the game, but recognize the inherent risk of very serious injury is far greater than pretty much any other sport.
 
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Ever* is a very long time. I fully anticipate soccer will outgrow football at some point. Not MLS but international soccer. Football is about 10 mins of action for a whole game, soccer never stops and also is a very tight 2 hours.

The moment a test comes into existence that can measure the presence of CTE in a living individual football is done.
I can see basketball overtaking football in popularity at some point, but too many Americans are like me and think soccer is boring.

Plus, doesn't soccer have their own CTE issues?
 
Ever* is a very long time. I fully anticipate soccer will outgrow football at some point. Not MLS but international soccer. Football is about 10 mins of action for a whole game, soccer never stops and also is a very tight 2 hours.

The moment a test comes into existence that can measure the presence of CTE in a living individual football is done.
However, and one which I am passionate about, is: we're all different. As evidenced by not every past football player having CTE. And in so many ways massively different. No 'single' test result should be applied to every individual unless it's directly correlated to the DNA.
[edited to prevent caving it]
 

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