Possible huge snow storm next week?

[BigBake]

The gradient on the cutoff line is going to be nuts, and leads to a pretty decent chance of this forecast busting, pretty much a guarantee for somebody some where. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 5" difference across one county...for example way different in Carlisle than Grimes.

Anyway here's forecast. Looking for 3 to 5 at the Des Moines Airport right now. Again Grimes could be more in a 4 to 6.

Another thing to note with the Ames total, is it comes in two punches, first 4-5 in the morning, then the dry air wraps in that I talked about earlier. Could even see some melting and compaction throughout the day if it wraps up warm enough.

Late evening, after 11 pm, we do have a chance to see some wrap around snow, which with colder temps will be lighter and fluffier. I'm not overly confident on the overnight Tuesday-Wednesday snow yet, but it is the explanation for the Ames total being higher than I think may actually ever be on the ground...see below.

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Kingcy....this is pretty damn accurate to what we got.

 

[kingcy]

Nope, sorry, they were pretty accurate that there would be a sharp cutoff in totals along the southern edge. A shift of 10 - 20 miles was a several inch difference. If you were expecting them to be accurate to within a 2 - 3 miles radius....well that's on you.

The edge was to the SW. The edge was 40 miles south.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Now watch in Ames between the snow and the wind we get tonight/morning it will probably turn out worse then the 1st phase of stuff we got.

Somebody should go outside and yell at this thing.

 

[NorthCyd]

Somebody should go outside and yell at this thing.

 

[cstrunk]

Maybe instead of predicting a week in advance they just give us 24 hour predictions. Why the hell not?

Uh because most of the time they give you a pretty good generalized idea about what the weather is going to be like even 3-7 days out, and people like to make plans for >24 hours in advance.

You can't forecast snowfall amounts that well because there is usually a band of heavy snow and a lot of lighter snow, but it's hard to pin down the location of that heavy snow until it forms. And a few tenths difference in rain equivalence means you are off of your totals by 3-6 inches or more. If you are off by forecasting rain by a few tenths, no one gives a hoot. But if you're off that much during a snow event, it's a bigger deal. That's why snowfall predictions have a lot of error.

But go ahead and act like it'd be so much better if there were no forecasts at all. If you think they are so bad, then don't pay attention to them until 24 hours. I bet you can't do that.

 

[SplitIdentity]

Uh because most of the time they give you a pretty good generalized idea about what the weather is going to be like even 3-7 days out, and people like to make plans for >24 hours in advance.

You can't forecast snowfall amounts that well because there is usually a band of heavy snow and a lot of lighter snow, but it's hard to pin down the location of that heavy snow until it forms. And a few tenths difference in rain equivalence means you are off of your totals by 3-6 inches or more. If you are off by forecasting rain by a few tenths, no one gives a hoot. But if you're off that much during a snow event, it's a bigger deal. That's why snowfall predictions have a lot of error.

But go ahead and act like it'd be so much better if there were no forecasts at all. If you think they are so bad, then don't pay attention to them until 24 hours. I bet you can't do that.

I love AccuWeather's 30 day forecast.

 

[BigBake]

The only miss I had was the second round. We got a 5min rain in Udale about 5pm and nothing since.

 

[NorthCyd]

Being a meteorologist must feel like being a kicker on a football team. People only acknowledge a "miss".

 

[jsb]

Well we are back under an advisory until 6.

 

[cstrunk]

Wrap-around snow band is cranking west and northwest of Des Moines. Where the band hasn't been moving much (about 30 miles west of DSM or so) they may be picking up some decent extra totals. It looks like it's starting to pivot southeast now and it's into the Ames area. If it can sit over any given place for a few hours you could probably pick up a few more inches.

 

[SoapyCy]

But go ahead and act like it'd be so much better if there were no forecasts at all. If you think they are so bad, then don't pay attention to them until 24 hours. I bet you can't do that.

I don't watch the weather at all. Ever. I only became interested because of this thread. So I bet I can do that.

 

[MNclone]

It was kind of nice to have 10" of snow to clear last night after the game. ...

 

[Wesley]

Maybe instead of predicting a week in advance they just give us 24 hour predictions. Why the hell not?

Back in '75 Omaha blizzard had essentially no prediction. We have come a long way with new radar.

 

[FDWxMan]

Well, the whole thing is in the books now...here are final totals from the NWS. Forecast in parenthesis.

Des Moines Ariport 4.1" (4.35, 3-5)
Perry 8"
Ames 7" (8.3, 7-9)
Jefferson 8.5"
Eldora 11"
Webster City 12"
Carroll 9" (8.3", 7-9)
Mason City 11" (10.2, 9-11)
Pocahontas 10"
Boone 9.2"

Forecast map and actual report map full disclosure.

Actual snowfall reports:

 

[wxman1]

There goes FDWxMan's ego...

 

[FDWxMan]

There goes FDWxMan's ego...

lol. Like it hadn't gone already!

Seriously though, we did pretty well this time. Might fall on my face next time. Nature of forecasting. I'll be here before/after either way.

Not going to pretend I'm right 100% of the time, because I'm not. Not going to say that I'm the best or something. We all take it on the chin from time to time.

These threads can be pretty fun, hopefully people find it interesting or get a little insight to what goes on.

 

[nwiafan]

Entrance to the nursing home in Hawarden, IA. We had about 19" of snow.

 

[CynadoAlley]

Entrance to the nursing home in Hawarden, IA. We had about 19" of snow.

We got about that here in Akron as well. Waiting on a friend to plow the driveway, and I'm getting stir crazy. Glad national signing day can keep me entertained.

 

[Cybyassociation]

Well, the whole thing is in the books now...here are final totals from the NWS. Forecast in parenthesis.

Des Moines Ariport 4.1" (4.35, 3-5)
Perry 8"
Ames 7" (8.3, 7-9)
Jefferson 8.5"
Eldora 11"
Webster City 12"
Carroll 9" (8.3", 7-9)
Mason City 11" (10.2, 9-11)
Pocahontas 10"
Boone 9.2"

Forecast map and actual report map full disclosure.

Actual snowfall reports:

And you were able to do it without Jennifer!

 

[alarson]

There goes FDWxMan's ego...

Guy beats Earl in one forecast and it goes to hell from there.