Didnt someone from michigan say something similar awhile back? People in the big 10 are being open about their desire to go to 16. The question is, is that because that is the plan, or because there is division on whether to expand further.
***OFFICIAL BIG 12 EXPANSION THREAD 2.0***
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Didnt someone from michigan say something similar awhile back? People in the big 10 are being open about their desire to go to 16. The question is, is that because that is the plan, or because there is division on whether to expand further.
Or just to assure people that Maryland and Rutgers weren't the end game, because if they were...flop.
My own theory is that Delany wanted to dip his toes in the water of breaking up the ACC and then let other conferences do the real dirty work before he swoops in for the final piece or two. I'm sure he thought the same way when they added just Nebraska and sat back to watch the Pac 16 saga not quite unfold.
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My sources tell me nothing has happened today. When is CW going on vacation?
My sources tell me nothing has happened today. When is CW going on vacation?
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That same writer is going to have an article on the GOR coming up. That should be interesting because I heard if 1/2 the teams leave, the GOR doesn't stand up. A lot of KU fans are still worried that the PAC has something up their sleeve and is going to sweeten the pot and try to get OU, OSU, Tech and of course TX again. If that would happen then any other team could leave without penalty. By the way, the SEC offered OU & OSU last time around when OU was looking west. OU was interested in the PAC but not the SEC. The SEC was willing to bring OSU along if it meant they got OU. Now that they are working on a conference channel they may no longer want to do that.
The best thing that could happen for the Big 12 is for the BIG and SEC to grab some founding ACC schools like UNC and Virginia. Then the ACC falls apart and we get who we want after the SEC and BIG takes theirs. This would make the Big 12 an eventual Super Conference and the PAC would be forced to take schools like SDSU.
So is that why UT wants to stay at ten teams? They can break the GOR with five teams moving.
Yeah, that guy put out another update today. Not really anything of substance in it, but like I said yesterday, this guy has some real connections with some B12 admins. The interesting thing to me is that he included a percentage chance of what he thinks will happen. He listed it at
- Stay at 10 - 74%
- Expand by 2 - 13%
- Expand by 4 - 12%
- Expand by 6 - 1%
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2012/dec/6/realignment-today-more-talk-about-furthe/
Two things of note...
1. He gives expansion a 25% chance. If you believe this guys sources, that means this thing is real. With all the public statements of note coming out from ACC people, its easy to see this is real. Yet there is a very possible chance that nothing more happens in the end either.
2. He is basically saying that if the B12 does expand, don't expect to go beyond 14. Wonder why the B12 would expand by 2 or 4 but not 6...
I haven't heard that, but i know there is a certain percentage that is needed to dissolve the conference. I would think the GoR would hold up as long as the conference did.
My math may be a little rusty but OU, OkieState, Tx, & TTech only equals 4. I'm sure Texas thinks they're worth more though. I still don't see it. No one will let them have their own network and no one wants to test the GOR. Sometimes a rose is a rose is a rose. I know there's lots that goes on behind closed doors but I believe the big 12 is solid...they could add but no one is leaving.
Ahhh. Gotcha. 20+ million a year for 13 years...that's a hefty fine for leaving the conference. I don't see any college in their right mind betting that on a future landscape that we have no clue what it will look like. How different was it 13 years ago? And didn't this whole kansas rumor start on one of their message boards when someone was spitballing who might the Big 10 look at? Snoballed from there and totally not even worth discussing imo.
After my post I mean
Regarding #1, any additional realignment will likely be driven by Notre Dame. The only way ESPN will increase its payout to the ACC is if ND engages fully with ESPN and becomes a full member. It's possible that ESPN increases the ACC payout without ND just to keep the ACC as-is but I doubt that happens.
Regarding #2, probably the only way that the B12 can justify expansion to 16 is with both FSU and ND. Any other combination of 6 schools likely will not generate enough value to existing B12 members. I do agree that scheduling with 14 is a pain in the rear but a potential combination of FSU, Clemson, VPI, NCST, Miami and Wake/Pitt probably is not going to generate an additional $180M of value per year for the networks and B12 unless Fox really wants to crack the SE market for CFB and pay through the nose to do so.
According to recent reports, ESPN is paying or will pay around $18/yr for all 3 tiers and the new Orange Bowl payout to ACC schools. ESPN and Fox will pay approx $30M/yr to B12 schools for T1, T2 and the Sugar Bowl payout. ESPN wants to keep the ACC together with or without ND so if the B12 expands, Fox will be footing the vast majority or all of the TV network bill for B12 expansion.
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No, what I was saying is if TX, Tech, OU, OSU would go to the PAC like they almost did last time then everybody would start looking to get out and the Big, ACC and SEC would all need 2 more to get to 16. Minus ND there would be 5 spots left so I'm sure some of those spots will be taken by Big 12 teams. The best thing is for the Big 12 to stay together but if they continue to stay at 10 while the others expand something just doesn't seem right about that. I just don't trust Texas or the PAC. Hope I'm wrong.
I really hope we can land FSU but I just can't see ESPN giving up on the ACC from a football standpoint. UT seems to be the lone holdout. UT's LHN network is owned by ESPN. I can't help but believe ESPN is pushing UT's buttons telling them to back off the ACC and instead go for anyone from the Big East
Thoughts?.
Thoughts?.
Where is that from?
It would be better moneywise for ESPN to get the major ACC teams to the Big 12. They would have more quality, big matchup, games to chose from each week. Big matchup are big money for ESPN.
Big 12 expansion...where else but WVU?
Just another angle, but I am not sure I agree with it. I can see your point, but there is also value to ESPN in not having a few "super-conferences".
ESPN is telling everyone to back off the ACC because they are trying to wrest away ND from NBC and have ND become a full-time ACC member. If that is unsuccessful, ESPN will need to determine if they want to increase the ACC payout without ND. If they don't, then it is open season on the ACC.
Agree.
I could be wrong, but I do not see much leverage for ND joining any conference full-time right now, even if without the success of this season. The only reason for ND to join any conference is if they get systemically locked out of the post-season. That would only happen (imo) if extreme expansion takes place, at which time they could join any conference they want.
I really, really, really want the Big 10, SEC, and ACC to go to 16 right now, while the Big XII schools are locked up with the GOR. I want this for two reasons:
- It would mean that the apocolypse scenario for the Big XII would be Texas/Tech/Oklahoma/OSU bolting for the Pac-12, leaving 6 members in the conference, which is enough to keep the GOR alive. If the Big 10, SEC, and ACC aren't at 16 you still have to worry about a few schools finding homes there and jumping ship, disolving the conference.
- The conferences would get a decade to see how poorly 16 schools works before the GOR ends and Big XII schools become free agents again.
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