***Official 2023 Weather Thread***

[cstrunk]

From this morning's AFD. What does it mean by clear out?

Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

They're basically saying, if there are showers/storms/clouds too early, it will keep the atmosphere from destabilizing as much for the main show this afternoon. If the sun comes out (clouds clear out), then the atmosphere will be primed for severe weather.

 

[Gunnerclone]

They're basically saying, if there are showers/storms/clouds too early, it will keep the atmosphere from destabilizing as much for the main show this afternoon. If the sun comes out (clouds clear out), then the atmosphere will be primed for severe weather.

Seeing a lot of breaks/thinning of the clouds over a central IA right now.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Seeing a lot of breaks/thinning of the clouds over a central IA right now.

Muggy and clear it seems in the metro.

 

[jbhtexas]

From this morning's AFD. What does it mean by clear out?

Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

The current Davenport sounding doesn't really show any kind of significant "cap" (i.e. warm layer of air higher in the atmosphere) to impede storm development. If the clouds clear out, the sun will heat up the moist surface air, which will make it less dense, and it will start rising (convection). As there is no cap to impede this rising air, it will be able to rise high into the atmosphere and make strong storms.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Muggy and clear it seems in the metro.

DP already at 59 in DSM. If that thing climbs up to 60+ that is a bad recipe with the dynamics at play today.

 

[cmjh10]

We are under a winter weather advisory. This is weird

 

[aeroclone]

Muggy and clear it seems in the metro.

 

[wxman1]

Sun is breaking out in CR...this is fine. It's not like we have a rising DP and a strengthening LLJ or an approaching Low or anything.

 

[3TrueFans]

Just please don’t lose power, that’s all I request.

 

[clone52]

The current Davenport sounding doesn't really show any kind of significant "cap" (i.e. warm layer of air higher in the atmosphere) to impede storm development. If the clouds clear out, the sun will heat up the moist surface air, which will make it less dense, and it will start rising (convection). As there is no cap to impede this rising air, it will be able to rise high into the atmosphere and make strong storms.

If you are far away to be safe, watching those thunderheads grow upward is pretty awesome. When there is a cap and they tip over is pretty cool too.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Sun is breaking out in CR...this is fine. It's not like we have a rising DP and a strengthening LLJ or an approaching Low or anything.

Should we hit the bar to start drinking to celebrate the end of days?

 

[wxman1]

Should we hit the bar to start drinking to celebrate the end of days?

Wriggleyville, Big Shots or Brick Alley?

 

[Gorm]

Sun just came out! BOOOOO.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Wriggleyville, Big Shots or Brick Alley?

Brick Ally. No annoying food to get in the way of the drinking.

 

[spierceisu]

It seems like Des Moines has been the sharp cutoff for all kinds of weather (snow or otherwise) all year. It just seems a bit odd.

 

[ClonerJams]

Its been good knowing you all

 

[Gunnerclone]

Sun is breaking out in CR...this is fine. It's not like we have a rising DP and a strengthening LLJ or an approaching Low or anything.

If I was in CR right now I would be taking extra precaution. Seems like a magnet for extreme weather events.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Brick Ally. No annoying food to get in the way of the drinking.

Amen brother. Nothing ruins my party vibes like 2 giant plates of hot wings and nacho platter at my table at 9pm on a Friday night.

 

[CRcyclone6]

Your drive will be fine.

Now mine to get to DSM from CR at 3PM will be interesting.

My daughter coming home from Lincoln today. She was going to leave there at 2pm. Talked her into skipping class and she left at 9am

 

[CRcyclone6]

Wriggleyville, Big Shots or Brick Alley?

Is Shorts open?