***Official 2023 Weather Thread***

[jmb]

Here we go again. KCCI has Ames at 3 to 6. And looks like WHO is at 1.3.

here is the screenshot from lazy KCCI.

nobody has anything at 1.3 in that photo.

 

[JP4CY]

Here we go again. KCCI has Ames at 3 to 6. And looks like WHO is at 1.3.

here is the screenshot from lazy KCCI.

Isn't WOI doing the same exact thing?

 

[Al_4_State]

Either it’s warmer to the east or you don’t have as much snow but in the center part of the border, no way it’s all gone by then.

We got less snow than you in previous storms. There were a lot of snowfalls where once you got 10 miles east of 35 amounts dropped significantly.

Most of the fields are close to open dirt, and the snow exists in the shadows or where it piled up

 

[AirWalke]

These darn storms with the sharp northern cutoffs have to be driving forecasters crazy right now.

 

[alarson]

These darn storms with the sharp northern cutoffs have to be driving forecasters crazy right now.

And either you give a range that can accommodate the uncertainty that exists and certain morons call you lazy, or you put out a narrow prediction and risk missing that by a mile. No win situation for them.

 

[BCClone]

We got less snow than you in previous storms. There were a lot of snowfalls where once you got 10 miles east of 35 amounts dropped significantly.

Most of the fields are close to open dirt, and the snow exists in the shadows or where it piled up

Hopefully with more and more open space it will push warmer temps to us. We can’t get over the mid 30s with all this snow and it’s been raining all day.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

And either you give a range that can accommodate the uncertainty that exists and certain morons call you lazy, or you put out a narrow prediction and risk missing that by a mile. No win situation for them.

Whatevs I want my free information which I do absolutely nothing to deserve to be highly accurate!

 

[tman24]

And either you give a range that can accommodate the uncertainty that exists and certain morons call you lazy, or you put out a narrow prediction and risk missing that by a mile. No win situation for them.

then you have the dumbasses who dont know how to read a map and want to know exactly what they will get in the middle of podunk iowa.

 

[FDWxMan]

View attachment 109643

Very steep gradient between Ames/Des Moines. Very easily could see much lower amounts in Des Moines with a slight southward shift.

But also might be a bit underdone across the board. Euro ensemble average in DSM at 8 to 9, short range ensemble average 8 to 9. GFS ensemble is the low baller right now in 3 to 5.

I'm probably leaning over on the NWS forecast, and watch area at the moment.

Convection and storms SE could also muck things up and drag it lower, so I can understand a path to lower as well, but that's my first gut impression this afternoon. Seems like some 8 or 9 areas still possible.

50th percentile forecast from WPC has DSM at 6 to 8, so I do feel like we're still a touch low, even though we're probably going over top of NWS DMX for the moment.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

But also might be a bit underdone across the board. Euro ensemble average in DSM at 8 to 9, short range ensemble average 8 to 9. GFS ensemble is the low baller right now in 3 to 5.

I'm probably leaning over on the NWS forecast, and watch area at the moment.

Convection and storms SE could also muck things up and drag it lower, so I can understand a path to lower as well, but that's my first gut impression this afternoon. Seems like some 8 or 9 areas still possible.

50th percentile forecast from WPC has DSM at 6 to 8, so I do feel like we're still a touch low, even though we're probably going over top of NWS DMX for the moment.

3-5 is much more reasonable. 8-9 just sets expectations way too high.

 

[FDWxMan]

3-5 is much more reasonable. 8-9 just sets expectations way too high.

Haha. Just taped the web update and set the bar around 4 to 6.
6 to 8 plus SE IA.

Good chance we'll bump that map up an inch or so tonight.

 

[BigBake]

then you have the dumbasses who dont know how to read a map and want to know exactly what they will get in the middle of podunk iowa.

This! It was pretty cool driving to Iowa City on Saturday and going thru one valley with no snow and then boom past the next hill boom 1 inch of snow on the ground. Funny was seeing the F150 tangled up in the center median cable that if only had made it another 1 mile would have been on dry not snow covered roads.

 

[cycloner29]

I would accept 69.

Ann can Campalong(o) time with me if she wants.

 

[Cytasticlone]

Looks like this may be another wet heavy snow. Just thankful I'm flying home tonight instead of tomorrow night. It never fails, yoy go somewhere warm, come home and a day or so later we get dumped on.

Excellent humble brag. Well done!

 

[BigJCy]

 

[cyfan92]

Update, they still have no idea

 

[cyfan92]

I'm guessing with the wind and temps in the 20's, we won't be able to accurately measure this event?

 

[brianhos]

Hopefully this holds off until 11 pm wed so we can all go to the game!

 

[Cy Hard]

Haha. Just taped the web update and set the bar around 4 to 6.
6 to 8 plus SE IA.

Good chance we'll bump that map up an inch or so tonight.

Well with Valentine's Day and all that excitement, getting an extra inch is perfectly normal.

 

[FDWxMan]

Hopefully this holds off until 11 pm wed so we can all go to the game!

Shouldn't be a problem!