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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

7-1 could do it. That's 23-8 (13-5) regular season.

Instead of comparing past years, let's take Lundardi's current bracket as a baseline.

6's are Notre Dame, Creighton, Oklahoma State and Minnesota.

If Iowa State lost only at OU, the resume would be in ballpark of those teams' current body of work (probably better than Creighton's) ... let's suppose all of them (or teams nearby) hold that slot. They'll most likely have a least a few other good wins and no drag-down losses.

I won't attempt a guess at Big 12 tournament, because I'm not sure where ISU would finish (that would effect how soon they could face an opponent that would move the needle at all).
 
Cyclonestate78 said:
2008 was far from an underperforming year in the Tourney for the Zags. A 7 seed losing to a 10 seed isn't uncommon and not all 10 seeds are created equal.
Click to expand...

To be fair, you seemed to set the rules when you defined what your colors meant.

As for the tourney... years underperformed in red, years played to seed in black, years overperformed in blue
Click to expand...

Since "played to seed" is black it implies that red (underperforming) or blue (overperforming) are based on the playing to seed measuring stick. If that is the case in addition to 2008 that was already pointed out should be red, 2012 should go from blue to black since they technically only played to seed.

But then again, I really don't care about the Zags unless they end up affecting ISU making the field or ISU ends up playing them.:wink:
 
cyclones500 said:
7-1 could do it. That's 23-8 (13-5) regular season.

Instead of comparing past years, let's take Lundardi's current bracket as a baseline.

6's are Notre Dame, Creighton, Oklahoma State and Minnesota.

If Iowa State lost only at OU, the resume would be in ballpark of those teams' current body of work (probably better than Creighton's) ... let's suppose all of them (or teams nearby) hold that slot. They'll most likely have a least a few other good wins and no drag-down losses.

I won't attempt a guess at Big 12 tournament, because I'm not sure where ISU would finish (that would effect how soon they could face an opponent that would move the needle at all).
Click to expand...

Minnesota has a fairly difficult remaining schedule with #20 Wisconsin, @Iowa, @#13 Ohio State, #1 Indiana, Penn State, @Nebraska, and @ Purdue. 4 road games and 2 of their 3 remaining home games are against top 20 teams. There is a real possibility they could go 2-5 or 3-4 down the stretch.

Creighton has lost 4 of their last 7 and has @UNI, @Evansville, Southern Illinois, @St. Marys, @Bradley, and Wichita State. Not the most difficult remaining schedule but UNI, St. Marys, and Wichita State could beat them if Creighton continues to play inconsistent.

Notre Dumb has Depaul, @Providence, @#16 Pitt, Cincinnati, @#18 Marquette, St. Johns, and @#12 Louisville. Cincy won't be an easy game and 3 ranked teams on the road could be trouble down the stretch.

Okie Light has @Tech, Oklahoma, #14 Kansas, @West Virginia, @TCU, Texas, @Iowa State, and #10 K-State. 3 of their 4 toughest remaining games are at home but that doesn't guarantee wins. If (and it is a big if) they fail to beat OU and Kansas they might be heading into their final 2 games needing wins and ISU and K-State won't be easy games to win.
 
VeloClone said:
To be fair, you seemed to set the rules when you defined what your colors meant.



Since "played to seed" is black it implies that red (underperforming) or blue (overperforming) are based on the playing to seed measuring stick. If that is the case in addition to 2008 that was already pointed out should be red, 2012 should go from blue to black since they technically only played to seed.

But then again, I really don't care about the Zags unless they end up affecting ISU making the field or ISU ends up playing them.:wink:
Click to expand...

Yeah it's obvious he's just going to bend his own rules to fit his argument, so I'm not going to bother with it anymore. If he's giving them credit for losing to a good team, then I guess 2009 should count as underperforming since they only beat a 13 and 12 seed, but this is going to turn into a pointless ******* contest so I'm done with it.
 
VeloClone said:
To be fair, you seemed to set the rules when you defined what your colors meant.



Since "played to seed" is black it implies that red (underperforming) or blue (overperforming) are based on the playing to seed measuring stick. If that is the case in addition to 2008 that was already pointed out should be red, 2012 should go from blue to black since they technically only played to seed.

But then again, I really don't care about the Zags unless they end up affecting ISU making the field or ISU ends up playing them.:wink:
Click to expand...

I see your point can you see my point? 7-10 seeds will face the #1 or #2 seed in the 2nd round. More often then not that is a losing proposition. I would say a 7-10 seed that advances to face the #1 or #2 seed and takes them down to the wire is a team that is performing above and beyond their seed. A 7-10 seed that simply advances to face the #1 or #2 seed is playing to their seed as the records indicate that those teams will lose to the #1 or #2 seed far more often then not.

These are the stats I found for these matchups...

#1 seeds are 44-10 against #8 seeds in 2nd round games. (.820 winning percentage)
#1 seeds are 54-4 against #9 seeds in 2nd round games. (.940 winning percentage)
#2 seeds are 48-17 against #7 seeds in 2nd round games. (.740 winning percentage)
#2 seeds are 24-17 against #10 seeds in 2nd round games. (.590 winning percentage) This stat is not needed as the Zags did not face a #2 seed as a #10 seed.

As you can see... 7,8,and 9 seeds have a combined winning percentage all-time of .220 in 2nd round games against the #1 or #2 seed which isn't good. Since 2006 the 7,8, and 9 seeds have a 6-37 record in 2nd round games which is even worse then the historical winning percentage numbers.
 
RPI dropped to 46, still fine but we are approaching the danger zone. Don't look now but UNI has a RPI of 78.
 
Final42b said:
RPI dropped to 46, still fine but we are approaching the danger zone. Don't look now but UNI has a RPI of 78.
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The good news is that as long as we beat Texas and TCU our RPI shouldn't drop too much and has the possibility of going up with really any other win besides those two...
 
Not sure if this is on ESPN.com or not yet but because of the "Bracketology" class I'm in right now (no joke) I get updates from Lunardi before they get published. Anyway, it appears as though the sky isn't falling like some like to think.

TOP SEEDS
• Indiana/MIDWEST
• Duke/EAST
• Miami/SOUTH
• Florida/WEST
NEXT IN LINE: Arizona (at Colorado)

LAST FOUR IN
• St. Mary's (vs. Gonzaga)
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Virginia
• Indiana State

FIRST FOUR OUT
• Stanford (vs. Southern Cal)
• Arizona State
• St. John's (at Louisville)
• California (vs. UCLA)


IN "WITH"A WIN...
• St. John's (at Louisville)

OUT "WITHOUT" ONE...
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Western Illinois (vs. North Dakota St)



Joe Lunardi
ESPN Bracketologist
Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN







 
cloneteach said:
Not sure if this is on ESPN.com or not yet but because of the "Bracketology" class I'm in right now (no joke) I get updates from Lunardi before they get published. Anyway, it appears as though the sky isn't falling like some like to think.

TOP SEEDS
• Indiana/MIDWEST
• Duke/EAST
• Miami/SOUTH
• Florida/WEST
NEXT IN LINE: Arizona (at Colorado)

LAST FOUR IN
• St. Mary's (vs. Gonzaga)
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Virginia
• Indiana State

FIRST FOUR OUT
• Stanford (vs. Southern Cal)
• Arizona State
• St. John's (at Louisville)
• California (vs. UCLA)


IN "WITH"A WIN...
• St. John's (at Louisville)

OUT "WITHOUT" ONE...
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Western Illinois (vs. North Dakota St)



Joe Lunardi
ESPN Bracketologist
Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
Click to expand...
Exactly ISU is still a lock with a great opportunity to get quality wins against KU and Osu.. they are in great shape..
 
Oh, and Belmont lost. So that ends an At-Large campaign for them. Will have to win the conference tourney now to get into the NCAA tournament. However, the Pac-12 is making it interesting with Colorado looking like a lock, and California and Stanford making a run for the tournament.
 
cloneteach said:
Not sure if this is on ESPN.com or not yet but because of the "Bracketology" class I'm in right now (no joke) I get updates from Lunardi before they get published. Anyway, it appears as though the sky isn't falling like some like to think.

TOP SEEDS
• Indiana/MIDWEST
• Duke/EAST
• Miami/SOUTH
• Florida/WEST
NEXT IN LINE: Arizona (at Colorado)

LAST FOUR IN
• St. Mary's (vs. Gonzaga)
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Virginia
• Indiana State

FIRST FOUR OUT
• Stanford (vs. Southern Cal)
• Arizona State
• St. John's (at Louisville)
• California (vs. UCLA)


IN "WITH"A WIN...
• St. John's (at Louisville)

OUT "WITHOUT" ONE...
• Temple (vs. Duquesne)
• Western Illinois (vs. North Dakota St)



Joe Lunardi
ESPN Bracketologist
Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
Click to expand...

How do I sign up for this bracketology class?! :smile:
 
Mumbai1986 said:
Oh, and Belmont lost. So that ends an At-Large campaign for them. Will have to win the conference tourney now to get into the NCAA tournament. However, the Pac-12 is making it interesting with Colorado looking like a lock, and California and Stanford making a run for the tournament.
Click to expand...

At first I thought the Belmont loss at Tennessee State itself didn't kill the at-large hopes — road loss to RPI-102. But you're right, it eliminates realistic consideration because it was at-large fringe prior to that, and there are almost no chances to pick up a significant win the rest of the way.

Re: Pac-12: Colorado is getting into "safe" territory now.
 
wonkadog said:
Updated today Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN
Click to expand...


Alright all you cliff jumpers freaking out about this team and saying they are now an NIT team. And all you basketball guru's calling out coach Hoiberg wow I guess we are alright. Here is a fact road games are very tough in this conf Isu has one road win and very close to beating KU,OSU and Tex. This team is a very tough team who never and I mean never gets blown out. They will be a good tourney team that has a chance to beat anyone they play. I think they still get to 10 or 11 conf wins and could easily win out at home beating 2 more ranked teams. Win at home and steal a road win all is good. As a matter of fact they could lose every remaining road game and still make the tourney by beating KU and OSU at home. No reason to panic people Joe Lunardi still has us as a solid lock and #10 seed playing NCST.
 
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