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***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***

CRcyclone6 said:
I think the first three listed are about as sure as anything right now. Duke might not have a home loss, but a 30 pt loss at Miami isn't good. What do you think of Miami? Prob a 2 seed right now, but could make a strong case for a 1 if they win at Duke and play well in ACC tourney.
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Agreed on Duke, that's why I didn't list them with the other 3, Syracuse also has some questionable losses, Temple on neutral court and Villanova.

I don't know how I feel about Miami yet this year, they had some early losses this year but they were while they were missing key players or in a second rate Christmas tournament in Hawaii. They've obviously gotten better as the year went out but the ACC also is really down, plus they got Duke right after they had lost Kelly. Their defensive efficiency numbers are terrific so that can save them even if they're having an off night offensively. I think they have a great shot at a number one seed even if they lose at Duke.
 
Mumbai1986 said:
Does anyone know that severity of Nerlen Noel's injury? I heard he left the arena in a wheelchair after the Florida game.
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Nothing official but if it isn't season ending I'll be surprised. Pleasantly so.
 
CyJack13 said:
So yes, thanks for proving my points. The number of ranked teams Gonzaga has played in the non-conference, while very impressive, doesn't even tell the whole story. Look at who've they played in games considered home or semi home (Seattle) in the last few years.

2013: West Virginia, K-State, Baylor
2012: Notre Dame, Michigan St, Arizona, Butler,
2011: San Diego St, Illinois, Xavier, Oklahoma St

They have no problem getting big name teams to come out to Washington. Also, getting scheduled into big time tournaments is not a random occurrence. Gonzaga's past success has put them on the same level as the nation's elite program when it comes to getting invited to big time pre-season tournaments, so they have absolutely no problem getting high quality non-conf games.
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So previously you said Gonzaga beating these teams was no big deal as they are just mid-level Big XII teams but now when you need to make a point... all of the sudden they are impressive teams Gonzaga played? In fact... of the 11 teams you listed as "impressive" games Gonzaga had on their schedule 9 of them were not ranked when they played the Zags.

As for the tourney... years underperformed in red, years played to seed in black, years overperformed in blue

2012 #7 seed (beat #10 West Virginia, lost to #2 Ohio State... tie game with 3:39 to go)
2011 #11 seed (upset #6 St. Johns, lost to #3 BYU)
2010 #8 seed (beat #9 Florida State, lost to #1 Syracuse)
2009 #4 seed (beat #13 Akron, beat #12 Western Kentucky, lost to #1 North Carolina)
2008 #7 seed (lost to #10 Davidson... who went on to beat #2 G-Town, #3 Wisconsin, lost to #1 KU by 2)
2007 #10 seed (lost to #7 Indiana)
2006 #3 seed (beat #14 Xavier, beat #6 Indiana, lost to #2 UCLA... 1 point lead with 11 seconds to go)
2005 #3 seed (beat #14 Winthrop, lost to #6 Texas Tech... Zags missed 3 with 4 seconds to go, lost by 2)
2004 #2 seed (beat #15 VALPO, lost to #10 Nevada)
2003 #9 seed (beat #8 Cincinnati, lost to #1 Arizona by 1 in 2OT, Zags missed 2 shots in last 4 seconds)

From what I have seen the Zags have played to their seed or overperformed to their seed in 8 of the last 10 years.
 
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Being an 11 seed is WAY too close to the bubble for my liking. You can say being an 11 seed is an easier road to the sweet 16 but you can also say it's a harder road just to make it to the second round.
 
This team just needs one more REALLY good win to cement itself in the Big 12. Lose at home to KU and OSU and it is going to be tough.
 
gocubs2118 said:
Being an 11 seed is WAY too close to the bubble for my liking. You can say being an 11 seed is an easier road to the sweet 16 but you can also say it's a harder road just to make it to the second round.
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I think this year especially the difference between seeds 3-12 is negligible at best.
No dominant team at all.
 
fsanford said:
I think this year especially the difference between seeds 3-12 is negligible at best.
No dominant team at all.
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It all depends on how the seeding shakes out. If teams like Arizona, K-State, Kansas, Butler, Louisville, or even a team like Ohio State can go on a big run to finish the season they could steal a #2 seed then you are looking at some very strong teams getting bumped down to the #3 line potentially.
 
jdoggivjc said:
Would rather be a 6 seed than an 11 seed. No sweating about making the tourney if we're a 6.
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What do you think ISU would need to do to grab a #6 seed at this point with 8 regular season games remaining? Would they need to go 7-1 and win 1 game in the Big XII Tourney (24-9) or maybe go 6-2 and win 2 Big XII Tourney games (24-10)?

In the previous 3 NCAA Tournaments the #6 seeds were:

2012- UNLV 26-8, Murray State 30-1, Cincinnati 24-10, and San Diego State 26-7
2011- Xavier 24-7, Cincinnati 25-8, Georgetown 21-10, and St. Johns 21-11
2010- Marquette 22-11, Xavier 24-8, Tennessee 25-8, and Notre Dame 23-11

Seems like the #6 seeds were reserved for a middle of the pack team from the major conference regarded as the best conference or a highly regarded mid-major team. Tennessee in 2010 is the only team that didn't fit into one of those categories.
 
Cyclonestate78 said:
So previously you said Gonzaga beating these teams was no big deal as they are just mid-level Big XII teams but now when you need to make a point... all of the sudden they are impressive teams Gonzaga played? In fact... of the 11 teams you listed as "impressive" games Gonzaga had on their schedule 9 of them were not ranked when they played the Zags.

As for the tourney... years underperformed in red, years played to seed in black, years overperformed in blue

2012 #7 seed (beat #10 West Virginia, lost to #2 Ohio State... tie game with 3:39 to go)
2011 #11 seed (upset #6 St. Johns, lost to #3 BYU)
2010 #8 seed (beat #9 Florida State, lost to #1 Syracuse)
2009 #4 seed (beat #13 Akron, beat #12 Western Kentucky, lost to #1 North Carolina)
2008 #7 seed (lost to #10 Davidson... who went on to beat #2 G-Town, #3 Wisconsin, lost to #1 KU by 2)
2007 #10 seed (lost to #7 Indiana)
2006 #3 seed (beat #14 Xavier, beat #6 Indiana, lost to #2 UCLA... 1 point lead with 11 seconds to go)
2005 #3 seed (beat #14 Winthrop, lost to #6 Texas Tech... Zags missed 3 with 4 seconds to go, lost by 2)
2004 #2 seed (beat #15 VALPO, lost to #10 Nevada)
2003 #9 seed (beat #8 Cincinnati, lost to #1 Arizona by 1 in 2OT, Zags missed 2 shots in last 4 seconds)

From what I have seen the Zags have played to their seed or overperformed to their seed in 8 of the last 10 years.
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Good Lord, how many times do you need to keep changing your argument? Beating the B12 teams Gonzaga has beat this year is not something worthy of a number one ranking compared to the rest of their resume. They don't have any really good wins like Indiana, Miami and other schools have.

However, getting that many big conference opponents to come play at their court is impressive. How many big name teams has ISU gotten to play at Hilton out of conference? Your original argument was good programs don't want to play Gonzaga. That is completely false as I have shown you.

As for the tournament, you're missing 2008 as underperforming, especially if you're going to count beating an 8 seed as a 9 seed as out performing their seed. But either way the facts show that Gonzaga has been average at best over the last decade in the tournament.
 
State43 said:
So funny seeing OU as such a higher seed then us. We only beat them by 20ish...
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They beat Baylor on the road and KU at home which may be better than any win we have. Baylor is hard to quantify but it was on the road. We beat OU at home which we were supposed to do.
 
CyJack13 said:
Good Lord, how many times do you need to keep changing your argument? Beating the B12 teams Gonzaga has beat this year is not something worthy of a number one ranking compared to the rest of their resume. They don't have any really good wins like Indiana, Miami and other schools have.

However, getting that many big conference opponents to come play at their court is impressive. How many big name teams has ISU gotten to play at Hilton out of conference? Your original argument was good programs don't want to play Gonzaga. That is completely false as I have shown you.

As for the tournament, you're missing 2008 as underperforming, especially if you're going to count beating an 8 seed as a 9 seed as out performing their seed. But either way the facts show that Gonzaga has been average at best over the last decade in the tournament.
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We are debating the Zags on multiple fronts here... so your "changing the argument" claim is BS.

2008 was far from an underperforming year in the Tourney for the Zags. A 7 seed losing to a 10 seed isn't uncommon and not all 10 seeds are created equal. Davidson by name might not mean much to you but that Davidson team was one of the hottest teams in the country going into the tournament. Davidson lost to #1 UNC by 4 and #7 Duke by 6 early in the season. They played some quality teams and played them tough. They were also riding a 22 game winning streak going into the NCAA Tournament that year (last loss prior to the NCAA Tourney was a 66-65 loss at NC State). It isn't like the Zags blew a game they easily should have won... Just ask #2 Georgetown (74-70 loser), #3 Wisconsin (73-56 loser), and #1 Kansas (59-57 winner) after surviving Davidson's chance to win the game on the last possession with 21 seconds to go.

In regards to 2003... the Zags didn't just beat an 8 seed as a 9 seed. They also took the #1 seed Arizona to double OT and should have won the game. By the way... how many times has a #9 seed advanced to the Sweet 16 in the history of the NCAA Tournament? If you guessed only 4 times you are correct. So I would say that a #9 seed taking a #1 seed to double OT and missing 2 shots to win the game in the final seconds qualifies as a #9 seed that performed pretty damn well. Geez... what does a #9 seed have to do to impress you? Final Four?
 
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