Is this sustainable?

[acoustimac]

It’s strange reading the posts that haven’t yet realized the legitimacy of this team. I’ve been waiting for the glass walls to shatter, but last night was the point where I became a real believer. Why can’t this team get through the conference with great success? They’ve shown they can win on the road. They’ve shown they can beat very good teams. To me the sky is the limit And I’m going to enjoy every second.

 

[bawbie]

It’s strange reading the posts that haven’t yet realized the legitimacy of this team. I’ve been waiting for the glass walls to shatter, but last night was the point where I became a real believer. Why can’t this team get through the conference with great success? They’ve shown they can win on the road. They’ve shown they can beat very good teams. To me the sky is the limit And I’m going to enjoy every second.

this is absolutely correct - but it's also the case that the BigXII is absolutely stacked. Even after winning the first 9 and being ranked #17, we're just middle of the pack in the conference.

Now, one interesting part is that there are some seriously suspect offenses in the conference, which should play into our hands. TTU, OU, KSU, OSU and WVU have all struggled at times to score.

But we just have to stay healthy (and getting Tre King eligible would be good too)

 

[jcyclonee]

At this point I’m not talking about just making the tournament, are we a legitimate top 15 team?

Our resume is better than that right now.

 

[jcyclonee]

Undefeated is most likely unsustainable.

You didn't say not unsustainable. I like the optimism.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[werdnamanhill]

In terms of sustainability, I more look to our offense. The Big 12 has like 5 of the top 15 best defenses on KenPom or soemthing crazy like that. Our defense will travel, but our offense is going to start going up against defenses on a whole other level starting on January. We will need to improve on that side of the ball in order to have success in conference play. I trust our defense, however.

 

[isuno1fan]

I remember a few years ago when TCU was something like 12-0 or 13-0 coming into conference play and then tanked and didn't make the tournament.

Nothing is guaranteed at this point.

 

[MJ271]

One thing I worry about is just the intensity that they're playing at and that Otz is coaching at. I think it's sustainable, but it takes a special group of players and a certain mentality to be able to do it for a full season. This group seems like they can be that group, but it can slip away pretty easily.

I'm also interested to see how the team reacts in a really close game. It's incredible that right now Creighton has been their most competitive game, which was never closer than 5 points at the end. I feel like at some point the relatively poor free throw shooting and the turnovers in the press are going to get exposed.

To be clear, at this point I'd consider them an NCAA tournament team easily. I'm just thinking about ways that it could fall apart.

 

[cyclonestunners]

I remember a few years ago when TCU was something like 12-0 or 13-0 coming into conference play and then tanked and didn't make the tournament.

Nothing is guaranteed at this point.

I remember that year too, but their sos that non con was in the 250-300 range. Absolutely terrible.

 

[bawbie]

. I feel like at some point the relatively poor free throw shooting and the turnovers in the press are going to get exposed.

I'm not overly concerned about late game FT shooting. we're at 70% on the season, which is so-so, but Brockington, Kalscheur and Kunc all shot > 85% last year and Hunter has looked good from the line (74%). Those are the ones who should have the ball in their hands late in games.

I also feel like they've "won" against pressing teams - breaking the press for easy buckets more often than giving up turnovers - and they've had a TON of experience against presses so far.

Hunter is unflappable and Brockington has been there before - so I think if it's a close game situation, I'm very comfortable with the ball in either of their hands at the end. I like that Gabe keeps shooting regardless of if he's cold or hot - but I NOT in late game situations.

My main concerns for sustainability are fatigue and injuries in the BigXII grind, foul trouble and cold cold shooting nights.

 

[cyfan92]

This defense has the ability to keep us in every game..

But ranking outside the top 100 in offense limits our upside...

Looking at the final Bart Torvik 2021 season. Teams that had a top dense and average to poor offense were:

Memphis - Won the NIT. Finished #1 in defense and #120 in offense
Tennessee - 5 seed, lost in the first round. #80 offense and #4 defense
St Mary's - NO post season finishing 14-10. #214 offense and #5 defense
VCU - One of the last teams in the tournament, 10 seed and lost in round 1. #122 offense and #6 defense
Utah State - 11 seed, lost in the first round. #126 offense and #7 defense
Clemson - 7 seed lost in first round. #106 offense and #16 defense

Similar story in 2019
4 seed K-State lost in first round
5 seed Wisconsin lost in the first round

Both had top 5 defenses and #85 and #82 defenses

Maybe and outlier of 2019 is Oregon. 12 seed, last 4 in who made a sweet 16. #80 offense and #15 defense

 

[BCClone]

This defense has the ability to keep us in every game..

But ranking outside the top 100 in offense limits our upside...

Looking at the final Bart Torvik 2021 season. Teams that had a top dense and average to poor offense were:

Memphis - Won the NIT. Finished #1 in defense and #120 in offense
Tennessee - 5 seed, lost in the first round. #80 offense and #4 defense
St Mary's - NO post season finishing 14-10. #214 offense and #5 defense
VCU - One of the last teams in the tournament, 10 seed and lost in round 1. #122 offense and #6 defense
Utah State - 11 seed, lost in the first round. #126 offense and #7 defense
Clemson - 7 seed lost in first round. #106 offense and #16 defense

Similar story in 2019
4 seed K-State lost in first round
5 seed Wisconsin lost in the first round

Both had top 5 defenses and #85 and #82 defenses

Maybe and outlier of 2019 is Oregon. 12 seed, last 4 in who made a sweet 16. #80 offense and #15 defense

I would take a first round loss.

 

[bawbie]

This defense has the ability to keep us in every game..

But ranking outside the top 100 in offense limits our upside...

Looking at the final Bart Torvik 2021 season. Teams that had a top dense and average to poor offense were:

Memphis - Won the NIT. Finished #1 in defense and #120 in offense
Tennessee - 5 seed, lost in the first round. #80 offense and #4 defense
St Mary's - NO post season finishing 14-10. #214 offense and #5 defense
VCU - One of the last teams in the tournament, 10 seed and lost in round 1. #122 offense and #6 defense
Utah State - 11 seed, lost in the first round. #126 offense and #7 defense
Clemson - 7 seed lost in first round. #106 offense and #16 defense

Similar story in 2019
4 seed K-State lost in first round
5 seed Wisconsin lost in the first round

Both had top 5 defenses and #85 and #82 defenses

Maybe and outlier of 2019 is Oregon. 12 seed, last 4 in who made a sweet 16. #80 offense and #15 defense

Interesting perspective.

I wonder how much upside our offense has to grow.

The marked improvement in Offensive Rebounding is a good sign and has seemed to be a major growth area of focus.

More and more Enaruna (and less Jones / 4 guard) would very much help the offense too

Looking at the stats, I don't think turnovers are hurting our offense that much - and while they are middle of the pack in Free Throw Rate, that's probably okay. The real offensive struggle is that Hunter + Kalscheur are taking 14 2PT shots at 40% and over 9 3PT shots at 23%. Either they start making more of those shots - or moving them to higher percentage looks is really the key to making this a top 50 offense rather than a 80-100.

Oh, and Tre King would help too.

 

[cyfan92]

I would take a first round loss.

I'd take the NIT 24 hours ago... Just insane that we are considering making the NCAA tournament

 

[cymonw1980]

Let me start off by saying I love this team and think it’ll continue throughout the season. I feel Brockington=Kane!

Honestly who else feels like this team is legit?

I will put it this way...

The way we are playing is sustainable - ball pressure def, rebounding energy, forcing turnovers, going after loose balls, etc. That travels with you on the road and can be sustained with consistent effort.

How good are they? I am not going to guess what is possible... But they can beat anyone they play.

Offense will be an issue at some point and they need to figure out how to inbound the basketball and break the full court press (and make teams pay for doing it). Too many turnovers and not enough fire power in the half court offense. Maybe fred will get fired half way through the season and TJ can hire him as an analyst (he can draw up inbounds plays).

But again...

Defense.
Effort.
Rebounding.
Turnovers.
Transition Offense.

These are things that will make them fun to watch, hard to beat.

 

[cyfan92]

Interesting perspective.

I wonder how much upside our offense has to grow.

The marked improvement in Offensive Rebounding is a good sign and has seemed to be a major growth area of focus.

More and more Enaruna (and less Jones / 4 guard) would very much help the offense too

Looking at the stats, I don't think turnovers are hurting our offense that much - and while they are middle of the pack in Free Throw Rate, that's probably okay. The real offensive struggle is that Hunter + Kalscheur are taking 14 2PT shots at 40% and over 9 3PT shots at 23%. Either they start making more of those shots - or moving them to higher percentage looks is really the key to making this a top 50 offense rather than a 80-100.

Oh, and Tre King would help too.

I think you are spot on for where the offense can improve. Give more 3 point attempts to Kunc, Grill, Jackson and Brockington. All 4 are shooting over 40% from 3.

Kalscheur and Hunter getting to the low 30% range would be an AMAZING lift as well! Also, Hunter is shooting under 50% from 2. Missing a lot of shots at the rim.. Analytics would REALLY love our offense if those 2 pick up their shooting!

 

[ClonesFTW]

I remember a few years ago when TCU was something like 12-0 or 13-0 coming into conference play and then tanked and didn't make the tournament.

Nothing is guaranteed at this point.

TCU was 20-12 (7-11 B12) heading into Selection Sunday in 2019 with this non-conference and ended up in the "First Four Out". It's still early but as it sits today our non-con wins should hold much more weight.

 

[enisthemenace]

This defense has the ability to keep us in every game..

But ranking outside the top 100 in offense limits our upside...

Looking at the final Bart Torvik 2021 season. Teams that had a top dense and average to poor offense were:

Memphis - Won the NIT. Finished #1 in defense and #120 in offense
Tennessee - 5 seed, lost in the first round. #80 offense and #4 defense
St Mary's - NO post season finishing 14-10. #214 offense and #5 defense
VCU - One of the last teams in the tournament, 10 seed and lost in round 1. #122 offense and #6 defense
Utah State - 11 seed, lost in the first round. #126 offense and #7 defense
Clemson - 7 seed lost in first round. #106 offense and #16 defense

Similar story in 2019
4 seed K-State lost in first round
5 seed Wisconsin lost in the first round

Both had top 5 defenses and #85 and #82 defenses

Maybe and outlier of 2019 is Oregon. 12 seed, last 4 in who made a sweet 16. #80 offense and #15 defense

Interesting stats. I’ve always used West Virginia as an example of a team with a “great defense”, but I never feel good about them going into the tournament. The reason is because I don’t really think they are playing “defense”. Their style is to wear officials out. “Make them call everything”.

Our defense is different than that.

Another defensive team I think about is Virginia. Pack line defense is pretty effective, but it’s so deliberate and slow.

Again…our defense is different.

There is just something I’m seeing with the defensive approach, so far, that I think is fairly unique. I’m not sure many teams do anything similar. The on ball pressure…all the way out to 30-35 feet, is intense. From there, we operate like a boarder collie herding sheep. They go where we want them to go, and the other team is not dictating the speed they attack it with because of that intense ball pressure. The ball pressure is similar to WVU, but it’s controlled.

 

[Pharmacy99]

TCU was 20-12 (7-11 B12) heading into Selection Sunday in 2019 with this non-conference and ended up in the "First Four Out". It's still early but as it sits today our non-con wins should hold much more weight.

View attachment 93122

Is there a more negative person than isuno1fan? I have never seen him saying anything positive about ISU

 

[CycloneErik]

TCU was 20-12 (7-11 B12) heading into Selection Sunday in 2019 with this non-conference and ended up in the "First Four Out". It's still early but as it sits today our non-con wins should hold much more weight.

View attachment 93122

Might as well beat Baylor and Kansas, just to be safe.

OK, it's just to beat Baylor and Kansas. They need that and we need that.