**** Iowa
- Thread starter chuckd4735
- Start date
I think we win on Thursday. If we don't, I think it's entirely possible we're a bubble team.
We could lose and still make the tourney they would just overplay my expectations for the conference.
2005. I know. It's possible for someone to have the same information you do but a different opinion.
We've had the best defensive team we've had in over a decade but yet seem like we can be a bubble team. I guess I don't understand your thought process on this
I outlined it many times. I don't thing I'm being unclear. I think we get swept by KU and BU. I hope I'm completely wrong. If I'm not, and what the RPI wizard says is true, then we'll have an RPI in the 40s, and that puts most teams on the bubble.
Top-50 Finishes are Key
Since the 1999-2000 season, just 70 teams with a top-50 RPI come Selection Sunday have missed the NCAA Tournament. That's just nine percent of all teams in that stretch with a top-50 RPI, or an average of 4.4 teams per season missing. It's also heavily influenced by a weird two-year stretch (2006 and 2007) where 16 top-50 teams missed the Big Dance. You may recognize one of them immediately. In 2007, Syracuse had an RPI of 50 and a SOS of 2, yet were famously left out. Outside of that two-year stretch, the average was just 3.4.
Top-40s are Even Better
All top-50 profiles were also not created equal. Those top-50 teams that have been left out were largely (67 percent) rated 41-50. That doesn't mean they were less worthy of a Tourney bid because of that slightly lower rating. But there's a slight correlation to be made between where you fall in that spectrum and your guarantees to get an invite. Some of the more notable exceptions to that theory, however: 2006 Missouri State (21), 2015 Colorado State (29), 2007 Air Force (30) and 2006 Hofstra (30). Those four teams have something in common, however...
Power Conferences Still Have an Advantage
The four top-30 teams left out above were all in non-power leagues. And that's indicative of the larger trend throughout the entire 16-year stretch we're looking at. Just 36 percent of the top-50 RPI teams left out of the NCAAs were in a power conference (meaning 64 percent were in non-power leagues). If that sounds like a closer comparison than you'd think, then look instead at the recent seasons from 2008 through 2015. In that stretch, just three power conference teams were left out, vs. 25 non-power teams. So despite non-power teams seemingly gaining more success in the actual tournament results, the standards for them participating have never been higher.
The last top-50 RPI ACC team to miss the NCAA Tournament was all the way back in 2006-07, when Florida State's SOS of 94 stopped them from being selected.
So Bryce thought Iowa was a tourney team before the season and now ISU could be a bubble team.
When was the last time we lost at home to an unranked noncon foe?
Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not "Mr. Lebowski". You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole **** Iowa thing.
Why don't you go quote the 1,000 posts you had before the season about how this team would suck on defense.
UNI in 2011 with Royce. Cincy was 27th in the AP poll so if Naz makes that three OR they receive a few more votes to get them to #25 it's totally cool but now we're a bubble team
So Bryce thought Iowa was a tourney team before the season and now ISU could be a bubble team.
Sounds like it's on between CyTwins and BryceC:
I was wrong about Iowa. I was wrong about BU. I was wrong about the election. I've been wrong about many things.
You were wrong about Iowa States defense. Apparently me being wrong about Iowa means I'm an idiot, and you being wrong about our defense (and being a **** about it the whole time) means absolutely nothing.
I think I've said my piece here.
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There is definitely a chance they don't have a good RPI this year as last year and that they get seeded lower because of it but I don't think that makes them a bubble team.