I'm curious about whether Prater will be adequately close to 100% by game-time against ISU. If so ... that could possibly help Iowa to pull off press coverage on ISU's WRs.
I'm also curious about whether Iowa will be able to get as much pressure on the QB without using blitzes as NIU got using blitzes.
It should be an awfully interesting chess match.
Also, I think that it's worth making the following observations:
1. ISU is in its 2nd full season with Herman as the OC. Thus, the system is being implemented much more smoothly now than it had before. That is a BIG deal.
2. Overall, ISU's O, both personnel-wise and execution-wise will be much better from the '09 season. The latter part overlaps with point 1 to some degree.
3. Iowa's '09 OL had to contend with a bunch of personnel juggling and it definitely impacted the game.
4. Reiff, Vandervelde, Gettis, and Koeppel each saw a good number of reps against ISU. Thus, oddly enough, in many respects ISU's D isn't going to be facing an OL that is all that different from the one they faced last year.
5. This reiterates #1 to some degree, however Arnaud handles the timing within Herman's system much better than before.
6. Stanzi successfully transitioned from a game-manager in '08 to having the whole O flow through him in '09. That transition was a process ... and it had BOTH its ups and downs.
7. Iowa feature inexperienced freshmen RBs in the '09 game. The experience level, for obviously reasons, will be much better for Iowa entering the '10 game.
8. In '09, ISU's D appeared to be much more porous against the run entering "the game." Against a quality NDSU team, they gave up around 5.5 yards per carry (on average). In contrast, against NIU, they only gave up around 4.3 yards per carry. This appears to be a direct reflection of Wally's impact on the D. It is worth noting that NDSU also posed a great threat through the air than NIU posed ... thus, NDSU's balance arguably made them a bit harder to defend.
9. Moeaki entered the game for Iowa with an injured ankle. Consequently, he was primarily used in blocking.
10. Iowa arguably entered the '09 game with a bit more to "prove" because of the near-loss to UNI.
11. The last time Iowa lost to ISU at Kinnick was back in 2002.
12. ISU's D is obviously a lot less experienced now than it was in '09, however, it also arguably runs to the ball better too. I'd also argue that it's probably a faster and more athletic group too.
13. Iowa's DL has become a much more consistent group itself. It is also now capable of taking over games.
14. While Iowa had an excellent cover corner in Spievey, it is also important to note that Prater wasn't able to play against ISU in '09. Instead, Lowe started at that CB spot ... being the 2nd different CB to start in 2 consecutive weeks (Castillo was out with a groin injury). Now, Iowa may not have a Spievey on the roster ... however, it does have 4 guys who own career starts.
15. ISU features a pretty impressive secondary headlined by L. Johnson and Sims. However, the unit lost some veteran talent in Smith and Banks.
..... the list could go on. Feel free to contribute yourself.
Anyhow, my "take" is the following.
- ISU's O is definitely A LOT better now as compared to where it was before last year's game. However, that said, Iowa's D is also better now as compared to where it was before last year's game. I believe that ISU's O is the unit that has made the greater strides overall. However, I also believe that the matchups in the trenches favor Iowa more than they had last year. ISU will score ... however, they'll have to work for their points.
- Iowa's O is definitely A LOT better now as compared to where it was before last year's game. While ISU's D has made legitimate strides in many areas, I am not convinced that is any better than it was last year. And while the unit last year was very opportunistic, it also wasn't terribly impressive. Thus, I see Iowa's O having decent success moving the ball on ISU's D ... enough so that they will likely be able to build a lead and hold on.
- Turnovers and special teams are, as always, an X-factor in a rivalry game like the ISU vs Iowa game. They can be huge players in swinging momentum one way or another ... and whomever owns the momentum the longest in a given game usually wins.
