Iowa State vs Iowa

[coolerifyoudid]

I think if that happens its due to the following factors - and Iowa probably needs at least 2 of them:
3) - they are hot from 3 (at least 10 makes)
2) - they destroy us on the offensive boards (they get at least 45% of their misses)
1) - they shoot a ton of FTs (make at least 20)
Nah) - they don't turn the ball over (<12 TOs)

I ranked your scenarios in how likely I envision each one

 

[CloniesForLife]

I think this is a game that Osun feasts. I think he may struggle with bigger athletes that play physical this year but Iowa's front court is neither big or athletic.

 

[madguy30]

I think if that happens its due to the following factors - and Iowa probably needs at least 2 of them:
- they are hot from 3 (at least 10 makes)
- they destroy us on the offensive boards (they get at least 45% of their misses)
- they shoot a ton of FTs (make at least 20)
- they don't turn the ball over (<12 TOs)

I think your 2nd and third option are very likely.

There are times that ISU struggles with boards and Iowa will keep forcing the issue on fouls.

 

[PizzaTheHutt]

We win by double digits. Zero doubt in my mind. Easy $$$$$

 

[dahliaclone]

Was just told we are 6.5 dogs. That seems off but what do I know. Can anyone remember the line last year ahead of the game?

 

[BCClone]

Was just told we are -6.5 dogs. That seems off but what do I know. Can anyone remember the line last year ahead of the game?

-6.5 means we are favored.

 

[dahliaclone]

-6.5 means we are favored.

didn't mean to put the -

edited

 

[CyPunch]

Was just told we are 6.5 dogs. That seems off but what do I know. Can anyone remember the line last year ahead of the game?

Torrvik currently projects Iowa as a 4 point favorite

 

[CyPunch]

I’m pretty pessimistic whenever we’re playing at Iowa City. But OTOH, they seem to not be as good offensively as the last few years, and defensively, I don’t think we’ve taken much of a step back from last season. I’m still not expecting to win, but I think it’s our best shot there in a few years.

They are a similar team stylistically with a lower ceiling. They do not have the shooting upside they did in the past and are pretty undersized inside. Outside of Kris, Sandfort is supposed to be their top outside shooting threat and he is shooting 22% from three on the year.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

They sure are. Anyone noticed how physical Duke has been with them and not got called for too many fouls? The way you beat Iowa is to keep them off the foul line. We'll play physical and aggressive defense, too, and I bet we'll have 8 whistles in the first 5 minutes. Hope I'm wrong. Osun and Rob have their work cut out for them against Rebraca. He's really improved.
Duke is so talented, it's almost sickening.

Rebraca has improved, but the bar from last year was set pretty low. He was pretty terrible a year ago.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I listened to most of the game tonight. Thursday won't be easy for the good guys, but I didn't hear anything that spells insta-defeat for us. If we play hard and crash the boards, I like our chances in CHA!

This Iowa team, if anything, is worse than last years version. Not saying they can't beat our guys, but they really don't appear to have a lot of depth (derpth, but not depth) they don't play defense, they don't rebound well, and they haven't been shooting 3's or FT's very well this year, which is usually what makes them go. I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the bubble come March, and not safely 'in the field'.

 

[heitclone]

Hawks will be in desperation mode, 3 loses this week and hawk fans will turn against Fran and Connor...... at least until they get into their cushy b1g schedule.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think this is a game that Osun feasts. I think he may struggle with bigger athletes that play physical this year but Iowa's front court is neither big or athletic.

Bob too. I don't see Rebracha or Mulva being much of an impediment to either of them, just physically.

Iowa SHOULD just put 5 guys in the lane on defense, dupe ISU into shooting a ton of 3s, and hope we miss a bunch.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I'd almost rather put Jaz on Murray. Jaz can match up with him inside and out and doesn't give anyone breathing room (and Murray isn't the type of player to force his way through pressure, he's more likely to just pass it). That would put Holmes on PMac, which would be a problem inside, but his game is more about shooting the threes and driving it, both of which Holmes should be able to counter with close defense and quick feet (and of all Hawks, I think the most prone to take a lane that we give him into a trap or charge).

Patrick might be the mismatch against our lineup, but I think you can roll the dice and make him beat you opposed to letting Perkins or Murray get going.

 

[bawbie]

Patrick might be the mismatch against our lineup, but I think you can roll the dice and make him beat you opposed to letting Perkins or Murray get going.

If he causes problems, we can play Watson at the 3 (he's done that for short stints early in the game). I'm curious to see him matchup with Murray and Patrick, it's a good test for his defensive progress (he's looked really good)

 

[Halincandenza]

Was just told we are 6.5 dogs. That seems off but what do I know. Can anyone remember the line last year ahead of the game?

That seems right based on the analytics and home court.

 

[Halincandenza]

Bob too. I don't see Rebracha or Mulva being much of an impediment to either of them, just physically.

Iowa SHOULD just put 5 guys in the lane on defense, dupe ISU into shooting a ton of 3s, and hope we miss a bunch.

Yeah, if I was playing ISU I would just pack the paint and make them prove they could hit outside shots.

 

[EnkAMania]

That seems right based on the analytics and home court.

KenPom has their home advantage at #18. (he has Iowa State #25 for those who are curious.)

 

[bawbie]

This Iowa team, if anything, is worse than last years version. Not saying they can't beat our guys, but they really don't appear to have a lot of depth (derpth, but not depth) they don't play defense, they don't rebound well, and they haven't been shooting 3's or FT's very well this year, which is usually what makes them go. I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the bubble come March, and not safely 'in the field'.

Until the last two games they were fine shooting FTs, at almost 75% and over 70% each game- but the last two games they're at 59%. It really depends on who is shooting them as Rebraca isn't good (~60%).

Shooting 3s is a bigger issue:


Either they snap out of it and hit everything or its going to be a long night for them. ISU doesn't give up paint points (#1 in the nation). We're also up to 17th nationally in opponents 3pt % (28%)

 

[bawbie]

Yeah, if I was playing ISU I would just pack the paint and make them prove they could hit outside shots.

There's almost always 2 defenders, if not 3, on players who are not going to shoot the 3 anyway - I don't get why teams come out to guard Shoon, Bob, Ward, Watson or Lipsey on the perimeter.