Copied here is my response to that thread....
I've read Tony's other breakdowns, thought all were fair. This one in part is fair - yet I'd be quite shocked if the game was anywhere close to a blow-out - that's looking at it from both sides.
I try to break down a game based on a few things...
1. What happened last year and why?
2. What key players were lost from each side?
3. Any immediate impact new players?
4. Significant coaching/philosophy/playbook changes?
1. What happened last year and why?
We all know the outcome, we all know the ISU defense dominated the game, giving the offense the tools it needed to do enough to win. Why? Who knows. Perhaps Iowa came out flat, maybe ISU just wanted it more. Could it be that ISU was just the better team that day? Tate leaving early have an impact? It could be all/some/none of those things. That one is somewhat subjective. What isn’t is ISU clearly won the game, leaving no doubt.
2. What key players were lost from each side?
- Iowa -
On offense I know the lost WR’s Hinkel, Soloman and center Ferentz. Kirk manufactures offensive lineman like I fill a urinal after a 12 pack – so no concerns there. Except, Iowa did not seem to have that domination on the line last year. Expect that to improve though. The WR position is where many question marks exist. Some young talent there, yet very unproven with exception to Chandler.
On defense, Iowa graduated their two stud linebackers and a pair of very nifty corners. I don’t know much about the guys coming in, but it’s not easy to fill the shoes of Greenway and Hodge. Allan and Johnson won’t be easy to replace either. They’ll be depending on the defensive line to control things until the new guys can adjust
- ISU -
On offense, ISU just graduated one player, an offensive lineman that couldn’t block an 80 year old woman using a walker, let alone D-I defensive linemen. I know I’m supposed to love the ISU and Iowa guys no matter what, but if you watched the first Cyclone offensive play in the bowl game (as just one example), you’d know exactly why I’m a bit miffed with the kid named Egbers. At any rate, everyone else from the offense is back.
Defense is another story. Berryman, Leaders, Robertson, Buchanan, Dobbins, Paris, Moser and Hicks are no longer suiting up for what may have been the best Cyclone defense ever. It’s tough enough when you lose a couple players from a stout defense, losing 8 will be down right nasty. Linebacker will be the least of the worries though, with Carper and Bowen seeing a lot of action last year and MSU transfer McKinzie being highly-touted.
3. Any immediate impact new players?
- Iowa -
This is one area I don’t know much about with Iowa. I know there will be plenty of new faces at the WR position and I’ve heard some good things. Just don’t know much beyond that.
- ISU -
I don’t expect to see many new faces on offense, except possibly at receiver. Strange, eh – being receiver is where their studs are? Well, enter Marquis Hamilton and Euseph Messiah. Polar opposites, Hamilton is a big receiver that commands attention while Messiah is short, but very, very quick. I look for these two to get into the mix, along with sophomore R.J. Sumrall – especially while Davis is recovering from the achilles injury.
Defense is where many new faces will be seen. Young players like Braaksma, Ferguson, Berg, Frere, Taylor and Dale will battle for the two open spots on the line to join Curvey and Moorehead. I think it will be Taylor and Braaksma early, yet we’ll see.
The only new face at linebacker is McKinzie – I really look forward to watching him play. Expect Singleton to be the starting corner opposite Jackson. Safeties look to be James Smith and I think Caleb Berg – could be Jon Banks there instead.
4. Significant coaching/philosophy/playbook changes?
Nope, not really. Both staffs are solid as a rock.
I see nothing but a high-scoring affair. The keys to the game look to be…
1. Can the young ISU defense come together and slow the Iowa offense, mainly the running game?
2. Can Iowa’s new corners match up with the potent ISU passing attack?
Look for a close game in the 30’s or 40’s. That’s all I’m gonna say about that.