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How much could the remaining Big 12 schools theoretically get from a settlement with UT/OU/ESPN?

Trying to respond to original question - how big might the Irate8 "ask" be, and from there let's figure out what might be a reasonable final settlement.

So the max ask is gonna be:
$80M penalty for breaking rules, PLUS
4 years of media rights (let's just say 50% of the ~$300M/year) = $600M

This assumes no claim against future lost income for backing out. If you wanted to add that (which of course the attys would, since more bickering = more billable hours), how much? Well if a Big12 with Cincy, BYU, etc has a media deal worth $20M per team (reasonable) but with OuT it would have been $30M or more. Times let's say 10 years, is a cool Billion dollars.

What would they really get? Id guess between $200-300M. No logic, just a gut feel.

So that's about $30M per team, and would make up for 2-3 years of reduced revenue with the watered down Big12.

If I have numbers wrong, let me know I will adjust. Very back of envelope.
 
Gorm said:
You know, I was just thinking we didn't have enough posts covering realignment. :p
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A lot of them seem to turn to memes and bad trolling by page 45. It gets to be like CFB Reddit and sportswriters on Twitter.
 
Whatever it should be, they will pay a fraction of it. I don't expect much here at all.
 
AppleCornCy said:
So it’s nice money and helps, but it’s not as much as we’re currently making in a year.

Doesn’t seem like any of the remaining eight would delay jumping on an offer from another conference just so they can get that payday.
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They would if the B12 remained solvent, because then they'd owe the same penalty as OuT. No one can afford to leave right now until the OuT departure is settled.
 
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There are two pieces at play:

Buyout - The rules in the bylaws are you pay out 2 years of revenue, so it changes per year. The Big 12 can withhold payment and the team can make up the rest. So, at a minimum, you're talking about $75-80m per team. However, there are rules to the withdraw process too, including informing them you're talking to others and the potential that the loss of the school could impact revenues (like if ESPN said they were paying them less in this contract). If that occurs, those potential future losses and penalties can increase the buyout amount.

GoR - regardless of notice, the Big 12 owns the broadcast rights until 2025. Should ESPN want to air a game, they'd have to ask the Big 12's permission and the check would be sent to the Big 12, not the SEC or the individual school. This one is something they'd negotiate to leave early. Very likely they'll sell the rights to someone for a set amount.

So I'd say at the low end you're looking at about $160m with a high end of about $300m.

Cash the check and offer it as a bribe to the new conferences Then hug it out on your way out the door to a new home.
 
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SeaClone said:
They would if the B12 remained solvent, because then they'd owe the same penalty as OuT. No one can afford to leave right now until the OuT departure is settled.
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I believe the PAC and B1G rights end in 24. They won’t add anyone before that other than announcing it. The Big12 is just one year longer. If the alliance adds enough of the Big12 schools to dissolve the Big12, then that’s what will happen. You’ll be able to tell what Big12 schools have homes going forward, when they vote to add schools. The schools with homes will vote no to expansion.
 
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I believe Bowlsby said even one remaining school has the rights to the media GOR money.
 
CyLyte2 said:
I believe Bowlsby said even one remaining school has the rights to the media GOR money.
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I think 6 is the minimum for a conference, or maybe even 8. There is a realistic chance 1 or even 2 schools get left out, but financially it would make sense to just pay those one or two rather than taking the drastic pay cut to stay in the Big12. If the other conferences are all willing to go to 16 that is. Even then, it would likely be 2024, which is only dissolving the conference 1 year early. And I didn’t think schools had to pay the penalty if the conference voted by 3/4 to dissolve.
 
CyLyte2 said:
I believe Bowlsby said even one remaining school has the rights to the media GOR money.
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true... but the conference can be dissolved with 8 votes i believe. In addition, there is some clause that may make it possible for a simple majority (6) to blow it up, but not clear... obviously, would go to court and would need to be decided there. But, if 8 get invites elsewhere, it looks like those 8 could dissolve the conference and maybe 6...

www.ourdailybears.com

Why I think the Big 12 is going to collapse, and how Baylor should react

We could be headed for major changes
www.ourdailybears.com www.ourdailybears.com


"Theoretically dissolving the league or changing the bylaws requires eight votes or 75% of members to change them.

A majority of the conference can vote to settle litigation. Bylaw 1.5.2(a)(6). Dissolution requires 75% (8 votes). See 1.5.2(b). That means six Big 12 schools (a majority) could leave the conference, sue, say “We owe nothing and the league is dissolved.” Then those six members could say, “We agree with the lawsuit filed by those six, and therefore, we concede the lawsuit.” So really I think you’re looking at six votes being sufficient to stop the Grant of Rights payments, not eight."
 
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