I ran some numbers taken from the bcftoys site (the guy who publishes FEI):
- On drives where the Iowa offense scores a TD or attempts a FG, their average starting position is their own 48 yard line. That's 2nd best in FBS, and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, Avg = opponent's 48 yard line).
- On drives where Iowa scores a TD, their average starting position is their own 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, opponent's 49).
- On drives where Iowa attempts a FG, their average starting position is their opponent's 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 3rd best in P5 (ASU #1, opponent's 41).
- Avg starting position on all other drives is their opponent's 34 - good for #2 in FBS and P5 (Wake Forest #1, opponent's 35).
- The difference between average starting position of TD/FGA drives and other drives is 14 yards, the 10th largest difference in FBS and 3rd largest in P5 (Rutgers #1, 25 yard difference).
Their formula is
clearly to keep the game on one half of the field so the offense doesn't have to do much. Add in the fact that their defense has scored 15% of their TDs so far, and their offense just has to not screw up. Saban won titles at Alabama doing the same thing until the last couple years. Obviously Iowa doesn't have Bama/Georgia talent, but playing that style at an elite level can yield elite results.
Combine that with the fact that the B1G West is the third worst P5 division (according to SP+, with both Pac-12 divisions at 1 and 2), and Iowa will really be a failure if they don't win the division going away.
FYI he says the Big 12 = SEC East. Better than the B1G West by a little. But considering Iowa can't play themselves and ISU will play OU and UT, its pretty clear ISU has a more difficult schedule.