How far can Iowa go?

Should be. Let’s crunch he numbers. Georgia is going to be in. They look fairly unbeatable, until they play Alabama. Their next hardest game is Florida. Nope. Alabama is in. Same argument as Georgia. So let’s look at the rest. Oklahoma will have a great case if they remain unbeaten. The B1G champ, if they only have one loss, has a great case. Both conferences have a better case than an unbeaten Cincinnati.

Cincinnati would have beaten a flawed Notre dame team. And then? Indiana? SMU? Uhhhh. Oregon with a loss with have a better resume. Shoot Oklahoma with a loss would be better. Cincinnati needs a bunch of conference champions with two losses.
Would be interesting if Byu went undefeated too. They have a considerably tougher schedule. It's actually comparable to a lot of power 5 teams. I think they'll lose a game though. I'd like to see cincinatti or Byu get in provided it's not 4 power 5 teams but I don't think it will happen unless it comes down to Power 5 teams with 2 losses which is unlikely
 
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Here you go, Iowa and ISU at the same time.
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Thank you that’s a lovely resource. I’ll have to check back after week 5 ratings are available.

Why is ISU vs UNLV missing?
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Would be interesting if Byu went undefeated too. They have a considerably tougher schedule. It's actually comparable to a lot of power 5 teams. I think they'll lose a game though. I'd like to see cincinatti or Byu get in provided it's not 4 power 5 teams but I don't think it will happen unless it comes down to Power 5 teams with 2 losses which is unlikely
PAC is close to not having a shot so that may help.
 
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I ran some numbers taken from the bcftoys site (the guy who publishes FEI):
  • On drives where the Iowa offense scores a TD or attempts a FG, their average starting position is their own 48 yard line. That's 2nd best in FBS, and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, Avg = opponent's 48 yard line).
  • On drives where Iowa scores a TD, their average starting position is their own 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, opponent's 49).
  • On drives where Iowa attempts a FG, their average starting position is their opponent's 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 3rd best in P5 (ASU #1, opponent's 41).
  • Avg starting position on all other drives is their opponent's 34 - good for #2 in FBS and P5 (Wake Forest #1, opponent's 35).
  • The difference between average starting position of TD/FGA drives and other drives is 14 yards, the 10th largest difference in FBS and 3rd largest in P5 (Rutgers #1, 25 yard difference).
Their formula is clearly to keep the game on one half of the field so the offense doesn't have to do much. Add in the fact that their defense has scored 15% of their TDs so far, and their offense just has to not screw up. Saban won titles at Alabama doing the same thing until the last couple years. Obviously Iowa doesn't have Bama/Georgia talent, but playing that style at an elite level can yield elite results.

Combine that with the fact that the B1G West is the third worst P5 division (according to SP+, with both Pac-12 divisions at 1 and 2), and Iowa will really be a failure if they don't win the division going away.



FYI he says the Big 12 = SEC East. Better than the B1G West by a little. But considering Iowa can't play themselves and ISU will play OU and UT, its pretty clear ISU has a more difficult schedule.
 
I ran some numbers taken from the bcftoys site (the guy who publishes FEI):
  • On drives where the Iowa offense scores a TD or attempts a FG, their average starting position is their own 48 yard line. That's 2nd best in FBS, and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, Avg = opponent's 48 yard line).
  • On drives where Iowa scores a TD, their average starting position is their own 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 2nd best in P5 (Rutgers #1, opponent's 49).
  • On drives where Iowa attempts a FG, their average starting position is their opponent's 44 yard line - 6th best in FBS and 3rd best in P5 (ASU #1, opponent's 41).
  • Avg starting position on all other drives is their opponent's 34 - good for #2 in FBS and P5 (Wake Forest #1, opponent's 35).
  • The difference between average starting position of TD/FGA drives and other drives is 14 yards, the 10th largest difference in FBS and 3rd largest in P5 (Rutgers #1, 25 yard difference).
Their formula is clearly to keep the game on one half of the field so the offense doesn't have to do much. Add in the fact that their defense has scored 15% of their TDs so far, and their offense just has to not screw up. Saban won titles at Alabama doing the same thing until the last couple years. Obviously Iowa doesn't have Bama/Georgia talent, but playing that style at an elite level can yield elite results.

Combine that with the fact that the B1G West is the third worst P5 division (according to SP+, with both Pac-12 divisions at 1 and 2), and Iowa will really be a failure if they don't win the division going away.



FYI he says the Big 12 = SEC East. Better than the B1G West by a little. But considering Iowa can't play themselves and ISU will play OU and UT, its pretty clear ISU has a more difficult schedule.


agghh...and we couldn't beat them at home, on the biggest espn stage, with 19-returning starters and 3-first team AA.
 
I was ready to give up on ol Spence. I thought his ceiling was serviceable QB.

We’ll see how he does against PSU. I expect a bit of regression, back to turtling. Hope I’m wrong.
 
"FYI he says the Big 12 = SEC East. Better than the B1G West by a little. But considering Iowa can't play themselves and ISU will play OU and UT, its pretty clear ISU has a more difficult schedule."

I suppose there is a metric that will measure that at years end so we can see just how that comparison shakes out. Hopefully both teams win out and show well for the state on a national stage.
 
He really has. As with most QBs, it comes down to how well they are protected. When Spencer has time to throw he usually does pretty good.
He's really improved as a thrower. More confidence, touch, better footwork. He still needs to work on going through progressions. He like a lot of college quarterbacks seems to lock on to 1 guy or swing it to the flat early too often. Definitely has taken a step though
 
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He's really improved as a thrower. More confidence, touch, better footwork. He still needs to work on going through progressions. He like a lot of college quarterbacks seems to lock on to 1 guy or swing it to the flat early too often. Definitely has taken a step though
The kid was in the same HS gradation class as Purdy, its his 4th year in the system, 2nd as a starter, and the only throws he can make are those that a very good HS player can make. Seam throws to the TE and the running back wide open up the field are not difficult throws to make, neither is the fake the run left, roll right and hit the crossing the field. He is what is, a game manager, that still has way to many poor throws when people are wide open. He has been told over and over I am sure do not force a throw into even tight coverage, that is why he rarely throws an INT, he gets little or no scramble yards if the play breaks down. He does run the QB sneak well.

There is going to be a game or two this year, were he is going to have to win the game for EIU, and when that happens, they are going to be in trouble.
 
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The kid was in the same HS gradation class as Purdy, its his 4th year in the system, 2nd as a starter, and the only throws he can make are those that a very good HS player can make. Seam throws to the TE and the running back wide open up the field are not difficult throws to make, neither is the fake the run left, roll right and hit the crossing the field. He is what is, a game manager, that still has way to many poor throws when people are wide open. He has been told over and over I am sure do not force a throw into even tight coverage, that is why he rarely throws an INT, he gets little or no scramble yards if the play breaks down. He does run the QB sneak well.

There is going to be a game or two this year, were he is going to have to win the game for EIU, and when that happens, they are going to be in trouble.
He definitely has limitations and bar was set incredibly low from last year when I said he's taken a step. I think he's making a lot more throws though this year than just the seam. He's connected on a lot of deep balls bast few weeks some that were high arching touch passes that he struggled with in the past. He's also gotten more accurate underneath. He's still not going through progressions and he's somehow less mobile than Stanley
 
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