Expectations for 2018-2019
- Thread starter CloneGuy8
- Start date
Win and drop 6%. I suppose that's the early season/small sample size knock from playing a lesser opponent. I couldn't be more pleased with how these guys are playing given the circumstances.
A lesser opponent who already beat another B12 opponent on the road.
I have a feeling that part of that was about Baylor. Don't get me wrong, Texas Southern will be a handful in their conference, but Baylor is not as strong this year and I think they were missing a guy too.
Still shouldn't happen. We were missing 4 of our best guys and handled them pretty easily.
I think Texas Southern is a lock for the NCAA, and probably winning their conference.
I think it was a combination of our "meh" performance against them... Do not get me wrong, we won that game, but you could tell they were not as wired or focused as they were for Mizzou, though that is human and to be expected you cannot be 100% all of the time... And probably just a lot of rankings/data shifting around at the moment.
The season is so young that even small shifts in data with the sample size in the context of a whole season can have a large influence right now. These rankings are simulating the rest of the season and our likely record before determining our chances, too, so maybe they detected either a weakness in our non-con (driving our RPI and the like down) or a stiffening of the Big 12, which would help the RPI, sure, but give you a lower W-L projection.
Both of those could hurt us, and both could shift rather quickly. These rankings will be more meaningful in a few weeks. I just figured to post them as a benchmark for all of us. I think projecting our chances as 50-50 right now, especially considering some of the injuries we have had at the front of the roster even if Horton-Tucker and Haliburton are playing like veterans, is probably fair, and it might hang out there for some time.
For context, Barttovik gave us the following three game scores...
AL ST = 89
Mizzou = 96
TSU = 77
A 100 means you are the best team in the country that night, and a 0 means you are the worst team in the worst conference and might as well give up right now.
85ish is usually the bubble for a P6 team.
So we have had one good, one excellent, and one meh performance this year. We deserve a little drop after TSU, but one I do not think will ultimately be meaningful.
Just looking at the stats, and if you take Lewis's 1-8 and Griffin's 1-10 out (from three), the rest of the guys are shooting 41% from deep (shooting about 34% all included). I expect Lewis to start shooting better, and probably Griffin too (though he could use just a bit of arc on his shot, as they all look good, but are flat and tend to hit the rim short).
Good point, while I do agree both Lewis and Griffin will shoot better as the season goes along. Once Wigginton, Lard, Talley, and Solomon are inserted into the lineup their minutes and shots will be limited. If this team that is on the floor from January on is a 40% shooting team from 3 it will equal a lot of wins.
With how Jacobsen has played so far and seems to have a much higher basketball iq then Lard. I wonder if Lard will be a 20-23 min energy player instead of futured player. Things have definitely shifted as far as playing time in the future as we seem to be forging hard working high iq type ID.
I was thinking about that last night. It's kinda odd to think about Wigginton and Lard coming back and losing some decision-making out there. At the least, we're versatile and deep. I'm not as concerned with Wigginton as I think he just wants to win, but it's not difficult to see Lard getting frustrated with his role when he returns.
Lard and Jacobson should be able to play just fine together. Don’t expect young and lard to be on the floor at the same time that often though. I bet young and lard basically split minutes at the 5; Jacobson and Shayok etc. at the 4.
Jacobson has been playing great, but with him as the only forward we definitely are missing a rim protector.
Jacobson has been playing great, but with him as the only forward we definitely are missing a rim protector.
I'm guessing Jacobsen turns into our big option at the 4, and splits the rest of his time with Lard. Jacobsen is very, very solid, and he's a scrapper, but Lard brings some serious game to the position (including rim running). I'd guess we'll ask Cam to go full tilt for 25 minutes a game.
We all forget Cam has trouble fouling.
He might play himself into <25 minutes per night on that alone.
And that is fine -- he can still make a heck of an impact in that time.
Nice to have a few options at the 4-5 when we have all four of them ready to go.
Lack of post depth has been so painful the past three seasons.
He might play himself into <25 minutes per night on that alone.
And that is fine -- he can still make a heck of an impact in that time.
Nice to have a few options at the 4-5 when we have all four of them ready to go.
Lack of post depth has been so painful the past three seasons.
Jacobson appears to be a very smart player and has great touch on his shot. I would find it difficult to take him out as a starter. Especially considering these guys are going to get several more game playing together and will continue to build chemistry.
I'm guessing he will continue to be a 30 minute + player regardless, since he can slot in at the 5, and can also stretch a bit at the 4. His short jumper is silky smooth.
I would have Lard and Jacobson on the floor together a lot more than most of you seem to foresee. They complement each others' games (strengths and weaknesses) and would present inside matchup problems for opponents that we've not had for....forever.
That still leaves a lineup of Babb, THT, Wiggingon to balance out, and it's a position balance that appeals to me and leaves the other 3 at their 'natural' positions.
I don't nec. think that leaves Solomon, Talley, or the other freshmen, as the odd men out, by any means, because I think there are always 8-men worth of "minutes", given foul troubles.
The toughest minutes are going to be for Lewis and Griffin, IMO.
That still leaves a lineup of Babb, THT, Wiggingon to balance out, and it's a position balance that appeals to me and leaves the other 3 at their 'natural' positions.
I don't nec. think that leaves Solomon, Talley, or the other freshmen, as the odd men out, by any means, because I think there are always 8-men worth of "minutes", given foul troubles.
The toughest minutes are going to be for Lewis and Griffin, IMO.
Typically in Texas Southern's conference they have to win their conference to get in the NCAA...
Maybe or maybe not... Jacobson has exceeded my expectations from when he committed and deserves time. Before we write him in pen as the starter it is only 3 games in against less than B12 competition so we cant assume it will stay the same once the real games start.
Lard will be back in early December, is proven at the P6 level, should be ready for a big role early, I'd expect him to start a few games in if not right away that could be next to Jacobson or in place of depending on the match up. Even if Solomon is back in late December he'll need to be eased in after his major injury, so I doubt we need to worry about a minute crutch at the post positions for awhile in any case. Even when they all are fully able to play the three can all play 25+ minutes between the 4-5 positions.