Expansion Candidates

Choose four:

  • Boise State

    Votes: 44 12.3%
  • BYU

    Votes: 256 71.3%
  • Cincinnati

    Votes: 315 87.7%
  • Colorado State

    Votes: 79 22.0%
  • Houston

    Votes: 233 64.9%
  • Memphis

    Votes: 157 43.7%
  • SMU

    Votes: 20 5.6%
  • UCF

    Votes: 214 59.6%
  • USF

    Votes: 42 11.7%
  • UNLV

    Votes: 30 8.4%

  • Total voters
    359
I'll justify my top 4:

BYU: Large, loyal fan base. Strong football tradition. Excellent facilities.

Memphis: Penny Hardaway. Strong basketball tradition; improving football tradition. Excellent facilities. Geographic proximity.

Colorado State: Cultural fit. Land Grant ag school. Geographic proximity. Brand new stadium. No meaningful recent football success, but Sonny Lubick proved it can be done.

UNLV: Basketball name brand. Fantastic facilities. Vegas, baby.


I like big stadiums and I cannot lie. Honorable mention: Cincinatti, Houston.

I don't believe anyone actually cares about UCF or South Florida. Other than the weather- not worth the trip.
 
I get the sentiment bit there is zero chance UNLV will get a look. They suck at football and there are better options closer to our footprint.

You can’t replace texas/ou with awful football programs.
 
I don't know why people are opposed to Houston and UCF. They are large schools with a lot of alumni and in Houston's case they've had quite a bit of success in the big two sports. Cincinnati and Memphis have as well for that matter.

My issue with Houston and other schools (some which I would like to see in the Big12) is the extent of the subsidies they receive from their University. $48.3M or 64% of Houston's athletic department revenue came from subsidies. That great if Houston can continue that over the long-term. But most of that money has been invested in hope of a Big12 invite.

Here are school/student fee subsidies for other prominent schools.

Cincinnati $29.7M
Memphis $20.6M
UCF $31.7M
SDSU $29.2M
Boise $15.0M
CSU $23.7M
UNLV $23.6M

That compares to $2.0M ISU, $1.9M KU and $0 KSU, $3.9M WVU, $3.5M TT & $87k OSU.

Not sure if large subsidies are part of ISU's future if it is to be in G5. But if G5 schools are cut off from the CFP, then my guess is a lot of mid-majors are going to be re-evaluating their investment in college sports.

Sport Revenue Data
 
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You picked the same four I did and arranged them the same way I would.

I know the media is going to trash such a "JV" conference, but that honestly is both a very good football conference and an excellent basketball conference. Almost everybody up there has been highly ranked in football in the past five years, and Baylor just won the NCAA tournament.

Most recently ranked...

2021 preseason = Iowa State (high #7)
2020 = Brigham Young (high #8)
2020 = Central Florida (high #11)
2020 = Cincinnati (high #6)
2020 = Kansas State (high #16)
2020 = Oklahoma State (high #6)
2019 = Baylor (high #8)
2019 = Texas Christian (high #25)
2018 = Houston (high #17)
2018 = Texas Tech (high #25)
2018 = West Virginia (high #6)
2009 = Kansas (high #16)

Half this hypothetical conference was ranked at some point last year.

That conference would have ended last year with these teams ranked...

#8 = Cincinnati
#10 = Iowa State
#16 = BYU
#21 = Oklahoma State

4/12 = 33.3%

Compared to...

ACC = 5/12 (41.7%)
Big Ten = 3/14 (21.4%)
Pac-12 = 2/12 (16.7%)
SEC = 4/14 (28.6%)

I know ESPN is going to be ESPN and the national media of all stripes is dumb, but why would that be considered a "minor" conference? It had more ranked teams than the Big Ten and Pac-12.

More of the conference would have been ranked as a % than the S E ******* C!

Great post. If we can’t get an invite elsewhere this is the best case scenario IMO. And if it comes with Amazon money and an expanded CFP that includes conference champion bids, this is still going to have a seat at the table
 
UNLV is interesting as they're not brought up a lot, but I could see them having success if they ever made it to a power league due to their location. No idea how passionate their fanbase is as a whole though so viewership wise, it may not be the right move to add them.


If we don't get an invite to one of the Big boy conferences. I'd love to add BYU and Cincy to get to 10. They are the best football and basketball brands by far. No Questions

If we go to 12. I voted for UCF and USF. TONS of eyeballs for viewership in central and South Florida. One of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country and they are big schools.

If we went to 14. I want Memphis and Houston. Solidify TX recruiting in the biggest city in TX, Memphis has a good football and basketball tradition.. Plus FedEx money.

Let's just pray we get into the cupcake B1G West
 
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Cincy is the no-brainer pick for me. Great rivalry with WVU, add another physical b-ball team (I know most fans would hate that, but I think it would be great). I know it's unlikely, but if a PAC12/Big12 merger were to happen it would be great for UCLA-Cincy matchup. On the football side they could compete in the upper-tier of the Big12. Add Cincy next year and they would help beat up Texas/OU for 2-3 years so they limp into the SEC.

Houston and UCF were the next two on my list. I view them as 2A & 2B as they both offer the same things, just in different cities.

I didn't vote for a 4th team, as the rest of the candidates are weaker than the top 3. Memphis/USF are probably the next candidates.

I think BYU is a team that's "what you see is what you get." They have great fan attendance and alright viewership, but I don't see them moving the needle much more than what they do already if they were to join a conference. I think there is significant potential with any of the other candidates as it would draw more fans to games which would lead to more viewers over time.
 
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BYU and Cincy are no brainers, Houston probably is too, the 4th gets tricky. I would rather bring a team from MT to join BYU but none are appealing, they would be quite the outlier, especially if we added 2/3 teams from EST.
 
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If you want the above choices by average audiences:

UCF
Cinci

Memphis
Houston

UCF and Cinci have some respectable numbers, averaging around what TCU/Tech did last year. They'd probably increase with better competition. Memphis and Houston were closer to Baylor/Kansas numbers.

The only AAC with more is Navy, and that's because to their games with ND and Army.

The rest were all really, really low.
If WV stays put, no brainer picks are BYU and Cincy in terms of geography, academics and historic/potential FB & BB performance. No need to go beyond 10 in that scenario.

If WV leaves for the ACC, then you attempt to reach an Alliance with the P12 on two ten team conferences, add Utah/Colorado/BYU and aggregate the 20 team inventory for bidding including a possible FB championship game for an auto bid if the money dictates it.

If the Alliance with the Pac12 can't be done and WV leaves, then add BYU, Colorado St and Houston, again for geography, academics and historic/potential FB & BB performance.

I don't want to see any more than one existing AAC school in the B12.
 
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I would do West and East based on the four that I prefer

West:
BYU
Kansas
K-State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
TCU

East:
Iowa State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UCF
Baylor
Houston

Give everyone a protected crossover rival to include KSU-ISU, Baylor-TCU, Tech-Houston.

Not many drivable road trips for ISU in the East division you show above.

I would not want to split up the old Big8 rivalries. KU, KSU, ISU and Okie State should be in one division.
 
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Yeah, I think of Boise State, Houston, & UCF as bloated community colleges as well. Whereas the last round of realignment was shaped by eyeballs in television markets, the consensus seems to be a la carte streaming driven by actual fan support will be more important this time around. UCF is a huge school in a great market, but do they have any real dedicated fans? Honest question.
They have pretty good attendance and their fans do seem to care.

For some reason, I was on a UCF site a few years ago. They had just played Louisville in a primetime game. UCF won and the fans were still pretty angry that the ESPN announcers spent the whole game talking about Teddy Bridgewater.
 
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If we had to go this route then BYU and Cincy are the no brainers. I think I'd the lean towards Houston and Memphis for the other 2. Don't quite get the UCF love
Byu brings a decent fan base no doubt. Kind of like the Catholics with Notre Dame (to a lesser magnitude). Cincinnati also a good program
 
Eh...they've been down since the O'Doyle's all graduated.

"Graduated"

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Of the options listed (most of them suck, tbh), UCF\Houston\Memphis\Cincy.



UCF shouldve been brought in when realignment was considered years ago. The big 12 was looking at expansion candidates in terms of what they were bringing then, but UCF, if elevated, had a ton of potential.

I find BYU to be heavily overrated in message board discussions. They aren't notre dame and their draw is exaggerated heavily. Also, if you're already looking at mostly other teams in the eastern half of the country, it wouldnt make sense to randomly throw a team like BYU in there from way out west.
 
Great post. If we can’t get an invite elsewhere this is the best case scenario IMO. And if it comes with Amazon money and an expanded CFP that includes conference champion bids, this is still going to have a seat at the table

It would be an excellent basketball conference. SRS ranking for the "new 12" last year...

#2 Baylor (24.83)
#5 Houston (21.66)
#16 Texas Tech (16.59)
#24 West Virginia (15.36)
#25 Kansas (15.29)
#27 Brigham Young (15.19)
#37 Oklahoma State (13.65)
#94 Central Florida (5.94)
#113 Cincinnati (3.99)
#123 Texas Christian (2.61)
#143 Kansas State (0.76)
#154 Iowa State (-0.72)

Average SRS = 9.98

For comparison, the ACC was 10.17 and the Big East was 10.56 last year, and both are unimpeachably "high-major" conferences *and* neither had the national champion leading them.

That conference won the national title and had the following seeds in the NCAA tournament...

#1(S) Baylor
#2(MW) Houston
#3(MW) West Virginia
#3(W) Kansas
#4(MW) Oklahoma State
#6(S) Texas Tech
#6(E) Brigham Young

That is 7/12. The ACC was 7/13 (including Notre Dame) in comparison.

The Big East was 4/11 last season. Pac-12 was 5/12.

This is all while Kansas had a bad year (at least by their standards) and some historically competitive programs (especially Cincinnati, Kansas State, and Iowa State) hit rock bottom. The only real "duds" above might be TCU and UCF, but TCU made the tournament in '18 and UCF in '19. About that same time K-State won the Big 12 and ISU won the Big 12 tournament. It wasn't all that long ago. Fortunes change quickly.

Bring those three back up to where they "should" be and keep the other good schools bumping around in the top 40 where they belong and you've got yourself a nice hardwood league.
 
I find BYU to be heavily overrated in message board discussions. They aren't notre dame and their draw is exaggerated heavily. Also, if you're already looking at mostly other teams in the eastern half of the country, it wouldnt make sense to randomly throw a team like BYU in there from way out west.

This needs more love. In a year they were in the NY6 conversation most of the year, when they played some games against the AAC and a huge game against Coastal as undefeateds, they drew less than UCF/Houston/Cincy/Memphis
 
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