No disagreement but those games in November still happened and there was a winner and a loser. The league schedule is always going to be the meat and potatoes but a fantastic appetizer can make a meal truly great.
Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
Okay, I'll play.
Really unfortunate when you pig out on appetizers and can't eat the main course or even make it to dessert.
The fact that going into the game a 7-15 Michigan would be a Q2 loss is quite shocking, especially given the state of the big 10. I'm a numbers guy so I have to hold true to it, if it is indeed a Q2 loss then they should not drop a whole seed line, I think they should be behind ISU overall though.
Q2 on the road is 76-135 and Michigan is currently 104
Wisconsin Badgers NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists
bracketologists.com
I'm a fan of SOR-type rankings, but they wouldn't do all that well compared to most bracket matrix predictions. They're way higher on mid majors than the committee. The ESPN version has Dayton as a 2, Indiana St as a 5, and GCU as a 6 right now. Mostly because SOR gives some credit to teams that consistently beat average teams, while the committee doesn't care about Q3/4 wins, they only take points off for losses.
Wisconsin and Illinois are going to be two teams that I'm picking to lose early in the tourney.
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Q2, yes, but Q2b. There can be some stinker games in the Q2b range - like Iowa at home, for example.Q2 on the road is 76-135 and Michigan is currently 104
Wisconsin Badgers NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists
Must be hanging onto Q2 by their fingernails and one decent win prior to this one (St. Johns) and some "quality" losses to TT, Memphis, Illinois, Purdue
Weekly reminder that Jerry Palm and Joe Linardi are not very good and seeding teams in their projections... Stop clicking on their content.
Here is a link to the best public bracket predictors. There is a blue hyperlink for you to see everyone's latest bracket predictions.
Here is a link to the best public bracket predictors. There is a blue hyperlink for you to see everyone's latest bracket predictions.
Having Alabama or Wisconsin ahead of us should discredit any so called expert. In fact, this bracket should go right in the trash.
In fact, I would love to see Lunardi try to justify Wisconsin as anything better than a 6th seed. Their non-con SOS is massively inflated, the only real good win they have on their resume is a home win against Marquette, they play in a weak ass conference and arguably have the weakest schedule in said weak ass conference, and they lack quality road wins.
Alabama is also overrated but they actually had a non-con against elite competition and performed admirably. We should be the first 3 seed, especially if you look at the returning talent/minutes the team had.
Wisconsin as the 10th overall seed is ******* preposterous.
There was a thread like a few weeks ago on college basketball Reddit talking about how in the grand total of bracketologists both fans and “professionals”. Lunardi is actually consider one of the more inaccurate ones. Since then I kinda stopped paying attention to him. The way I see it, just keep winning. I think this team has a chance to fight for first in the big 12. Finishing top 2 gets you no lower than a 2 in my mind and that means Omaha to me.
Oops, multiple quotes and I accidentally included this ZRF classic. Lol!
3 points about the non-con:
Iowa State has benefitted from TJ's ability to put together a cohesive team early and the defensive style early. Especially years 1 and 2.
There's a reason for teams being ranked, analytically, 1 - 300+. Or, should they rank 1-150 and everybody else is tied for 151?
P-5/6 teams won't play good non-power conference teams on the road. That makes it tough for mid-majors to gain high level wins and SOR.
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@ChrisMWilliams @brentblum
You mentioned on WED's podcast not knowing how first weekend sites are assigned for the MBB NCAAs. Here is how it works. The Committee completes its 1-68 Seed List. Then the top 16 teams on the list are assigned, in order, from 1 thru 16 to the closest available venue with two teams to each of the 8 sites. Using Joe Lundardi's latest Seed List as depicted in this tweet, the top 16 teams would be assigned to the following sites in order:
Purdue-Indy; UConn-Brooklyn; Houston-Memphis; Tennessee-Charlotte; Arizona-SLC; North Carolina-Charlotte; Marquette-Indy; Kansas-Omaha; Alabama-Memphis; Wisconsin-Omaha; Illinois-Pittsburgh; Iowa State-Pittsburgh; Auburn-Brooklyn; Baylor-SLC; Duke-Spokane; Dayton-Spokane.
Now you can argue how Lunardi has this Seed List ranked but this depicts how locations are assigned.
ISU is competing with KU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Illinois and possibly Baylor for the two top slots at Omaha. The higher ranked of Marquette, Wisconsin or Illinois will likely go to Indy. The other two teams would then compete with KU and ISU for the slots at Omaha.
You mentioned on WED's podcast not knowing how first weekend sites are assigned for the MBB NCAAs. Here is how it works. The Committee completes its 1-68 Seed List. Then the top 16 teams on the list are assigned, in order, from 1 thru 16 to the closest available venue with two teams to each of the 8 sites. Using Joe Lundardi's latest Seed List as depicted in this tweet, the top 16 teams would be assigned to the following sites in order:
Purdue-Indy; UConn-Brooklyn; Houston-Memphis; Tennessee-Charlotte; Arizona-SLC; North Carolina-Charlotte; Marquette-Indy; Kansas-Omaha; Alabama-Memphis; Wisconsin-Omaha; Illinois-Pittsburgh; Iowa State-Pittsburgh; Auburn-Brooklyn; Baylor-SLC; Duke-Spokane; Dayton-Spokane.
Now you can argue how Lunardi has this Seed List ranked but this depicts how locations are assigned.
ISU is competing with KU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Illinois and possibly Baylor for the two top slots at Omaha. The higher ranked of Marquette, Wisconsin or Illinois will likely go to Indy. The other two teams would then compete with KU and ISU for the slots at Omaha.
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I'm glad someone posted a summary ... I listened to that podcast and was surprised when CW expressed 'confusion'* about how first-weekend sites are determined.
I think the formal name for this methodology is the "greedy algorithm." You pair things up by simply picking the least-distance pair over and over again until everything you need to pair up is paired up. This is very simple computationally but definitely not all that likely to give you an optimal solution.
This is a variant, but it seems you start from #1 and work your way down the list filling in the available slots with the team/venue match with the shortest distance. You do that over and over again until all the slots are filled (which implies that #16 ends up with whatever is left at that point for them).
It doesn't sound like there's any attempt to use a more sophisticated matching algorithm to minimize global travel distance/a mildly suboptimal but simpler solution is the one they're going to tolerate.
If we can stay seeded above Kansas or Baylor we should be fine. Two out of Purdue, Illinois, WI and Marquette will be placed in Indy and Illinois would get pushed to Pittsburgh before Omaha. If Iowa State does what they need to do they will be seeded above WI and Illinois anyways.
The perfect scenario is Iowa State and Baylor both getting seeded above Kansas. There will be a sh!t ton of tickets that will hit the secondary market and Iowa State fans would absolutely flood Omaha.
I don't think its too preposterous. Iowa States non-con was always going to hurt us some. We juiced our NET and predictive metrics blowing out one of the weakest schedules in the country and are taking care of business in conference play against elite competition. But even with the conference gauntlet our SOR is 42nd. Wisconsin and Alabama are #2 and #3
In Q1&2
ISU 6-5
Alabama 7-7
Wisconsin 10-7
Depending on what you like more you could very reasonably argue any order of the 3, but again, I don't think its really outrageous for us to be in the same tier.
According to JP, a computer fills out the bracket and assigns locations once the Seed List is completed in accordance with Bracketing Principles (e.g. no potential first weekend matchup vs a conference member that you have already played twice).
Once the top 16 are assigned to their first weekend locations as described above, the #17 ranked team would be assigned to a closest location where one of the #4 seeds are located. In this case, that would be Brooklyn, SCL and Spokane (two slots). The final #5 seeded team (#20 on the Seed List) would fill the last spot available regardless of location.
Every single game left on Iowa State's schedule is a Q1 game... The non con won't be a factor. Also Wisconsin has several soft Q1 games that can easily end up being Q2. They are getting mileage out of losing to good teams.
2025 March Madness bracket preview: Top 16 reveal and history of how those seeds do
Here's a guide to the top 16 reveal for the 2025 NCAA tournament, set for 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 16, on CBS.
www.ncaa.com
8 days away from the committees Top 16 Preview!