Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
Why should Wisconsin benefit from losing to every quality opponent they have played except Marquette? There's a reason the committee created NET and tossed RPI to the side.
Yep, you can't lose to michigan and expect to not drop at least a seed line. Wisconsin will be appropriately rewarded in my opinion but the 2 or 3 seed talk is out the window as of now, my guess is a 4 seed come next week
Wiscy losing last night helps us and possibly could be up to that 3 line, now
LOL. This right here.
Unless you are playing top quality competition, losing closely at neutral site/on the road, beating some good teams on the road, while beating some really good teams at home, the difficulty shouldn't matter. When you are getting your ass handed to you and or looking completely unimpressive said difficulty doesn't matter.
Also, when looking at "said" difficulty I question the algorithms that consistently put a schedule like Wisky's above someone like Kansas. The flaw with SOS is that it tends to favor schedules lacking super weak opponents while not giving those that have more elite competition their due. Even moreso when the majority of the games are occurring at home, where the team is likely going to win anyway.
I said Wisconsin was a complete fraud. They aren't a top 20 team, let alone a top ten team (in ranking or metrics).
I can't stand Wisconsin either but this is pure fiction.
Virginia, SMU, are Quad 1 wins in their non-conference. They didn't just beat Marquette.
I know lunardi stinks at his job but he had us on the 3 line last night in his daily tweet update
IIRC, someone did a study a couple years back and the ESPN BPI SOR (Strength of Record) was the most correlated to seed line, like really close.
If that holds true, then ISU is 13th, ie the first 4 seed.
I think if it was today, they'd be a 4. If things go really well the next month, they could get to a 2; if things go poorly then drop to a 5. I'd put them at 60% chance for a 3, 40% chance for a 4 right now.
Went back to see what that SOR and seeding looked like last year, but it includes NCAA tourney games now, so it's not a snapshot of when selection happened. Can't check accuracy.
If that holds true, then ISU is 13th, ie the first 4 seed.
I think if it was today, they'd be a 4. If things go really well the next month, they could get to a 2; if things go poorly then drop to a 5. I'd put them at 60% chance for a 3, 40% chance for a 4 right now.
Went back to see what that SOR and seeding looked like last year, but it includes NCAA tourney games now, so it's not a snapshot of when selection happened. Can't check accuracy.
I don't think Wisconsin is that good, and it's playing out now. But their non-con was tough and they managed it fine. Whether they are overrated or not, they did beat VA and SMU, which are pretty good wins that they deserve credit for.
But I do agree to an extent that in the non-con these power conference teams should not really see a difference once a team gets above 200 or so. They're pretty much all home games, and there shouldn't be a practical difference in a tourney level team playing a home game vs #200 or #330, yet it has a major impact on SOS. Just like capping the benefit of running up the score, there should be a diminished negative impact above a certain ranking because it really should be immaterial for a tourney team hosting one of these games.
You should absolutely get credit for challenging yourself in games that you choose to schedule. It's great for the sport and it should be celebrated. If we want the regular season to mean something, we have to encourage these games.
They tossed RPI away because non-P6s figured out how to manipulate it and it made it really hard to justify leaving them out. Much easier to take care of that problem with a secret formula.
Yeah, I was just looking at their Big 10 schedule so far and it's a total joke. Their best wins are against bubble teams like Michigan State, NW, and Nebraska.
I see them more as a 5 or 6 seed and should definitely be seeded lower than Iowa State.
Iowa State up to the #9 overall seed here (top 3).
Wisconsin down to a 4. Creighton down to a 6.
A reminder Creighton is the host in Omaha and therefore canNOT get placed at home.
Wisconsin down to a 4. Creighton down to a 6.
A reminder Creighton is the host in Omaha and therefore canNOT get placed at home.
Virginia has won 7 in a row and is 40th now on Torvick. When Wisconsin beat them they were 38th. If anything it's held up about the exact same as then.
It's difficult to make a case for ISU below a 3 seed right now. Firmly a 3 and much closer to bumping up to a 2.
Have to hold serve at home to remain there of course.
Then a dog sh!t conference schedule needs to matter too. The committee will reward the Big 12, they have shown that for several years now.
I don't necessarily disagree but IMO people put WAY too much stock into the non con. Teams in February look a lot different than teams in November.
Marquette at home is a really good win
Other than that it's a few decent wins and crap
- SMU at home
- @ Virginia
- @ MSU
Those are pretty much it. The rest are road wins vs. teams that aren't making the tourney or home wins against bubble teams or teams that are out.
Then add some bad losses to PSU and Michigan.
It's just a matter of an experienced team playing well at the start of the season. That was always a thing, but with all the player movement it's magnified. It's like some of those Iowa teams when they would return everybody. Look good early because they had all played together while most other teams were figuring out how the pieces fit. Then come Feb-March, not so good.
The early non-con results can definitely be more favorable to teams that bring back a lot of returning talent, to the detriment of those who don't. I think it's fair to discount the non-con to a degree due to those factors in favor of a strong conference record.
according to joey brackets, Wiscy losing @ michigan last night dropped them down 1 spot on the overall seed list. still a 3 seed ahead of us. Was a Q2 loss