Bracket Stats
- Thread starter dahliaclone
- Start date
Think of how many times we've heard the talking heads pick Michigan State since then. Until this year, I'm pretty sure that I've heard every expert every year say that Michigan State is primed for a deep run.
Bartorvik has it. Might have to search around to get ot the link though.
I about gagged when I heard one of the four talking heads whip out his violin and start playing "Oh, Poor Bill Self, hasn't bin himself, but now he's well and we think he's swell" swill.
I'd rather hear one that goes, "I'm frickin' sick of Kansas, ain't you?"
All about the legend that is Tom Izzo. In fairness, his PASE is 14.3 -- the BEST over the past 20+ years.
Last 24 tournaments:
13 Sweet 16s
9 Elite 8s
7 final fours
and of course, the championship we all remember vividly.
Doing a little research, it looks like Iowa's defensive efficiency ranking (252) would be well to the right of the THC ad.
I'm still bitter about AJ Granger's moving screens.
Poor Bill Self and his complete lack of a moral code or even a code of ethics.
Yeah, makes you want to edit a thesaurus that gives "Jayhawk" as a synonym for "cheater".
I guess I'll trust the selection committee more than the media experts. I guess that's a good thing.
Borrowed from Reddit.
Over the years, I have identified which of the 12 stat categories have the strongest correlation to all champions in the Ken Pom era (since 2002). The six that I’ve found matter most include:
If I did this right, the following teams meet the top 6 requirements this year:
Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Arizona just misses with a 41 ranked defense.
Over the years, I have identified which of the 12 stat categories have the strongest correlation to all champions in the Ken Pom era (since 2002). The six that I’ve found matter most include:
- 4 seed or better
- Ken Pom ranking in the top 25
- Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense
- Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense
- Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
- Have a head coach who has been to at least the Sweet 16 before
If I did this right, the following teams meet the top 6 requirements this year:
Houston
UCLA
Alabama
Purdue
Arizona just misses with a 41 ranked defense.
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I do something VERY similar to this. It doesn't tell you exactly who will win, but it does a good job of identifying who won't win.
Biggest question for me is Arizona and Texas -- new coaches, no NCAA record of their own, despite a lot of experience for both. For picking a champ, the coach is critical.
Duke has a ton of freshmen and a new hc and oral Roberts is old and experienced. That’s a hard pick for me but going with Duke.
I love Marquette but USC or Izzo lurking in their second game is way tougher than many think for Marquette. Especially USC. They finally have all their players back from some injuries. Sneaky good.
I don't worry about Lloyd at all. All those years with Few when he had tons of opportunities to jump make up for it. He and Tang are very similar there.
Rodney Terry I'm less sold on but the head jobs that he had were in places I'm not sure you can win anyway.
Nice analysis from Reddit that I used last year that works off efficiency metrics. There are some pretty interesting trends
Edit: wow I had no idea it would embed the entire post
Edit: wow I had no idea it would embed the entire post