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dahliaclone

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
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Some of this may help you fill your bracket...it did mine!

  • 30-win benchmarks matter for mid-majors. 12 teams with 30 or more wins have made the tourney the last 10 seasons and have a combined 10-2 record in the first round. Three of those teams – Stephen F. Austin (2014), Middle Tennessee State (2017) and UC-Irvine (2019) – won as double-digit seeds. HINT: Charleston/Oral Roberts this year.
  • Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has had at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse
  • At least one top-4 seed has lost in the first round in 13 of the past 14 tournaments (32 of 37 overall)
  • Each of the past four No. 3 seeds to lose to a No. 14 seed came from the Big 12 Conference. (Baylor and Kansas State this year)
  • Odd but true: At-large teams that finished four games under .500 in conference play are 5-0 in the first round. West Virginia is the only at-large team in this year's field to finish four games under .500 in conference play.
  • At least one No. 11 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 10 of the past 12 tournaments.
  • Since 2002, when KenPom began tracking it, 19 of 20 national champions have finished top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002
 
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Since 2010 11 seeds have a better record against 6 seeds—-including us last year. I wonder how that coincides with the beginning of the play in game?
 
dahliaclone said:
Some of this may help you fill your bracket...it did mine!

  • 30-win benchmarks matter for mid-majors. 12 teams with 30 or more wins have made the tourney the last 10 seasons and have a combined 10-2 record in the first round. Three of those teams – Stephen F. Austin (2014), Middle Tennessee State (2017) and UC-Irvine (2019) – won as double-digit seeds. HINT: Charleston/Oral Roberts this year.
  • Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has had at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse
  • At least one top-4 seed has lost in the first round in 13 of the past 14 tournaments (32 of 37 overall)
  • Each of the past four No. 3 seeds to lose to a No. 14 seed came from the Big 12 Conference. (Baylor and Kansas State this year)
  • Odd but true: At-large teams that finished four games under .500 in conference play are 5-0 in the first round. West Virginia is the only at-large team in this year's field to finish four games under .500 in conference play.
  • At least one No. 11 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 10 of the past 12 tournaments.
  • Since 2002, when KenPom began tracking it, 19 of 20 national champions have finished top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002
Click to expand...

This doesn't leave many options this year, does it.
 
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Every champion in the last 7 years was ranked in the top 10 for offensive efficiency and top 35 for defensive efficiency.

Houston, Purdue, Uconn meet that requirement this year.
 
With how wide open the field is this year, its weird that my first run through picking based on my knowledge of the teams and watching a ton of games this year that I picked mostly chalk. Some of the Cinderella mid-major teams I thought could make a run (VCU, Oral Roberts, Drake, etc.) got some pretty bad matchups with Duke, Miami, etc.

I'm sure there will be significant upsets but they are, to me, very difficult to find and predict.
 
Another:

only three times has the No. 1 team on KenPom heading into the NCAA Tournament cut down the nets as national champion: 2008 Kansas, 2012 Kentucky and 2019 Virginia. Houston is #1 this year.
 
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