It's almost like everyone has forgotten the Big XII has a championship game this year...
Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
Todd Fuhrman, typically a good follow for us gamblers had this to say today in his "Vegas Top Ten" article.
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/outkicks-vegas-top-ten-10/
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/outkicks-vegas-top-ten-10/
Well, someone doesn't love the process.
Only one thing to do, prove him/them wrong and shock the world. I hope this team isn't satisfied and keep their eye on their goals.
Honestly I would rather play OU again. TCU's defense gave us a ton of trouble in the second half of our game, and I think our defense has only gotten better since the OU game. Plus, OU's defense is not great, and I think our defense could do better against them if we played them again. Give me OU in the title game all day. Just my opinion though.
Also, I know this has been said time and time again, but how incredible is it that it;s NOVEMBER and we are discussing ISU in the title game and possibly (however unlikely) the CFP. This team, this coach, this staff, what else can be said that hasn't been said already, they are INCREDIBLE.
Let the hype train roll after a W in Morgantown!
It's almost like everyone has forgotten that that year the Big 12 already played one more league game than pretty much everyone else even without a championship game and that still wasn't enough for the committee to have a team who hadn't proved they belonged to jump two Big 12 teams.
It is naive to think that any non-blue blood Big 12 team is going to get a fair shake this year simply because it is "our team".
Exactly. No matter how much it's denied by the committee, the big names will make it in.
$$ talks and I'll never be convinced this playoff is any different
Massey's ratings haven't updated yet, but probably not a lot of change from last week -- most everything Big 12-wise happened as they expected -- so here are the title game odds with last week's ratings and this week's results:
TCU: 77.4% (45.8% 1st, 31.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 75.2% (45.8% 1st, 29.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.2% (6.3% 1st, 24.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 11.4% (0.3% 1st, 11.1% 2nd)
West Virginia: 4.6% (1.9% 1st, 2.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/TCU: 54.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 15.7%
Iowa St./TCU: 14.3%
Oklahoma St./TCU: 6.4%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 4.8%
TCU/West Virginia: 2.5%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.2%
If Iowa State goes 3-0, they have a 97.2% chance of making the title game -- basically, as long as WV loses to anyone. If they go 2-1, they have a 5.1% chance of making the title game -- they need the loser of TCU/Oklahoma to lose a second game and then have some other stuff happen.
You could say the OSU game is kinda big:
ISU wins: 67.1% (13.6% 1st, 53.5% 2nd)
ISU loses: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
TCU: 77.4% (45.8% 1st, 31.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 75.2% (45.8% 1st, 29.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.2% (6.3% 1st, 24.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 11.4% (0.3% 1st, 11.1% 2nd)
West Virginia: 4.6% (1.9% 1st, 2.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/TCU: 54.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 15.7%
Iowa St./TCU: 14.3%
Oklahoma St./TCU: 6.4%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 4.8%
TCU/West Virginia: 2.5%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.2%
If Iowa State goes 3-0, they have a 97.2% chance of making the title game -- basically, as long as WV loses to anyone. If they go 2-1, they have a 5.1% chance of making the title game -- they need the loser of TCU/Oklahoma to lose a second game and then have some other stuff happen.
You could say the OSU game is kinda big:
ISU wins: 67.1% (13.6% 1st, 53.5% 2nd)
ISU loses: 0.7% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Numbers updated with Massey's new ratings -- some minor differences.
Oklahoma: 78.5% (50.5% 1st, 28.1% 2nd)
TCU: 76.4% (42.0% 1st, 34.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.5% (5.5% 1st, 25.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 9.5% (0.2% 1st, 9.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.9% (1.7% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/TCU: 56.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 17.2%
Iowa St./TCU: 13.2%
Oklahoma St./TCU: 4.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 4.4%
TCU/West Virginia: 2.0%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.1%
Iowa St. wins this week: 67.1% (11.8% 1st, 55.4% 2nd)
Iowa St. loses this week.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 78.5% (50.5% 1st, 28.1% 2nd)
TCU: 76.4% (42.0% 1st, 34.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 31.5% (5.5% 1st, 25.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 9.5% (0.2% 1st, 9.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 3.9% (1.7% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Texas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma/TCU: 56.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 17.2%
Iowa St./TCU: 13.2%
Oklahoma St./TCU: 4.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 4.4%
TCU/West Virginia: 2.0%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.1%
Iowa St. wins this week: 67.1% (11.8% 1st, 55.4% 2nd)
Iowa St. loses this week.: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Only thing surprising from this is Okie State is going to need a miracle to make the title game
It's because OSU lost to both OU and TCU, so both of those teams have the tiebreaker on the Cowboys. So not only does OSU need to win out, they need the loser of the OU/TCU game to lose another game to someone else.
Already heard from a couple ESPN pundits that the Big 12 Championship Game has already failed. They are assuming that the higher ranked team is going to lose, but it's stated as fact. 'It's not working out." It's just pure ignorance.
The game could backfire. Or it could provide the champion with another marquee victory while playing on championship Saturday, further bolstering their playoff resume. It's crazy that the Big 12 can be criticized for playing a 9-game round robin schedule AND having a championship game with its top 2 teams. It's what every pundit is clamoring for (tough schedules, no dodging opponents, top 2 teams in the conference playing for the conference title), but because it's the Big 12, it's ignored or ridiculed.
ESPN sucks. At everything. They suck.
By 538's Monte Carlo projections, number of teams from each conference to make the playoffs:
SEC: 1.30
ACC: 0.83
Big 12: 0.68
Big 10: 0.49
Pac-12: 0.41
So I'm not sure the Big 12 needs to be at the top of the worrying list.
SEC: 1.30
ACC: 0.83
Big 12: 0.68
Big 10: 0.49
Pac-12: 0.41
So I'm not sure the Big 12 needs to be at the top of the worrying list.
If ND, Georgia and Alabama make the playoff...it is a good thing because there needs to be an 8 team playoff. The only way change is made is if three conferences get left out
I don't think they are being criticized for playing a tough schedule.
They're being criticized for being this guy.
I agree-- I think the CCG is really stupid. For either team in the CCG... does losing your final game really make up for the boost in SOS? If we don't put a team in the playoff, that CCG loss likely puts the second place team out of NY6 contention as well.
1. The round-robin already guarantees that one of the teams in the CCG will have *at least* one loss.
2. The CCG gives a team a second chance at our theoretically undefeated conference champion. At best, you're giving your second place team a loss going into NY6 selection day. Worst case scenario, that team is going to hang a loss on our theoretical undefeated round-robin champion, thereby removing the conference from the CFP.
In my opinion, without divisions to allow teams to duck the best competition from the other division (which encourages matchups of two unbeaten teams in the championship game) the extra game is a mistake.