Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

Personally, I'd like to see OSU beat OU.

We beat WVU this week.

That would set up 2 big match ups the following week with OU/TCU (Sooners win) and ISU/OSU.

If ISU stumbles there, that would mean OU/ISU/TCU all have 2 losses. Win out and should get tie breaker to play OSU again in CCG.

Not sure if it was shown, but @Dale do you have %'s if that scenario happens?
 
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Objectively we'd be 11-2 during a "down" year for the Big IIXII (definition of a down year: Texas or Oklahoma didn't win the conference) and have a terrible loss to a weak team in Iowa.

But the committee isn't objective so there is no chance that we'd get in with 2 losses. Or 1 loss. It would be touch and go if we were undefeated.

#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.

#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.
 
#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.

#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.

Win out and we will be #5 at best in the final playoff rankings and left out despite 4 top 10 wins (OU, TCU, OSU, and the conference championship game).
 
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Win out and we will be #5 at best in the final playoff rankings and left out despite 4 top 10 wins (OU, TCU, OSU, and the conference championship game).

I could see this as well.

We would have two more Top 10 wins (at least) if we won out.
 
Here we go. 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, post-TCU:

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

TCU: 57.9% (33.3% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 48.0% (22.2% 1st, 25.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.5% (21.9% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 41.4% (21.0% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
Texas: 4.4% (1.1% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.7% (0.5% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor, Kansas, Tech: nada.

And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:

Oklahoma St./TCU: 20.0%
Oklahoma/TCU: 19.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.0%
Iowa St./TCU: 17.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 14.7%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 9.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 2.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.1%
Oklahoma/Texas: 1.0%

Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy enough to do.

Yes please. Scenario/percentage chance I hook up with Elizabeth Hurley?
 
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#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.

#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.

And the Joel Lanning LB of Week 2 is not the same Joel Lanning LB that we have now. I'd be really interesting to see how different that game would transpire if it was played now or at the end of the season.

Alas, in retrospect, the Texas game looms as a bigger missed opportunity than the Iowa game, perhaps. Their defense may be strong but there were exploitations to be had that we didn't seize. Could be 5-0 right now and firmly in control of the ship.

This is still fun regardless.
 
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OH BOY THIS IS GREAT!!!
 
I'm a firm believer that if we beat Iowa/Texas we don't beat OU.

So I'm not in the crowd that says "We could be 7-1". That's a stretch for me!
 
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Personally, I'd like to see OSU beat OU.

We beat WVU this week.

That would set up 2 big match ups the following week with OU/TCU (Sooners win) and ISU/OSU.

If ISU stumbles there, that would mean OU/ISU/TCU all have 2 losses. Win out and should get tie breaker to play OSU again in CCG.

Not sure if it was shown, but @Dale do you have %'s if that scenario happens?

Okay: OSU, TCU and ISU win this week; OU and OSU win next week. Odds if that happens:

Oklahoma St.: 98.9% (96.6% 1st, 2.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 54.8% (0.1% 1st, 54.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 34.6% (1.0% 1st, 33.6% 2nd)
TCU: 11.7% (2.3% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)

Basically, if ISU wins out from that point on, they're in as #2. And if they don't win out, they're out.
 
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Okay: OSU, TCU and ISU win this week; OU and OSU win next week. Odds if that happens:

Oklahoma St.: 98.9% (96.6% 1st, 2.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 54.8% (0.1% 1st, 54.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 34.6% (1.0% 1st, 33.6% 2nd)
TCU: 11.7% (2.3% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)

Basically, if ISU wins out from that point on, they're in as #2. And if they don't win out, they're out.

Awesome, Thanks!
 
I'm a firm believer that if we beat Iowa/Texas we don't beat OU.

So I'm not in the crowd that says "We could be 7-1". That's a stretch for me!

It's just impossible to say, as you never know what their mental or motivational state would have been (or that of the opposing teams) with a different outcome there.
 
If we win out, we'd have 50/50 shot at the playoffs in my opinion.

I'd give us a 5% shot at best - and that's with everything in other conferences breaking our way. The committee will do all they can to maximize the presence of B1G, SEC, and notre dame in the playoffs. At 11-2 (with 4 top 10 wins), the committee will pat us on the head and say better luck next time.
 

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