Can someone with coding experience make one of these for football ?
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb
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Can someone with coding experience make one of these for football ?
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb
Objectively we'd be 11-2 during a "down" year for the Big IIXII (definition of a down year: Texas or Oklahoma didn't win the conference) and have a terrible loss to a weak team in Iowa.
But the committee isn't objective so there is no chance that we'd get in with 2 losses. Or 1 loss. It would be touch and go if we were undefeated.
#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.
#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.
Win out and we will be #5 at best in the final playoff rankings and left out despite 4 top 10 wins (OU, TCU, OSU, and the conference championship game).
#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.
#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.
Here we go. 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, post-TCU:
Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.
TCU: 57.9% (33.3% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 48.0% (22.2% 1st, 25.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 46.5% (21.9% 1st, 24.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 41.4% (21.0% 1st, 20.4% 2nd)
Texas: 4.4% (1.1% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 1.7% (0.5% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Baylor, Kansas, Tech: nada.
And here are the Championship Game matchups that have at least a 1% chance of happening:
Oklahoma St./TCU: 20.0%
Oklahoma/TCU: 19.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.0%
Iowa St./TCU: 17.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 14.7%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 9.2%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 2.0%
Iowa St./Texas: 1.1%
Oklahoma/Texas: 1.0%
Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy enough to do.
Yes please. Scenario/percentage chance I hook up with Elizabeth Hurley?
#1, we were without our top 3 safeties for most of the game against iowa.
#2, Iowa is not that weak of a team.
Personally, I'd like to see OSU beat OU.
We beat WVU this week.
That would set up 2 big match ups the following week with OU/TCU (Sooners win) and ISU/OSU.
If ISU stumbles there, that would mean OU/ISU/TCU all have 2 losses. Win out and should get tie breaker to play OSU again in CCG.
Not sure if it was shown, but @Dale do you have %'s if that scenario happens?
Okay: OSU, TCU and ISU win this week; OU and OSU win next week. Odds if that happens:
Oklahoma St.: 98.9% (96.6% 1st, 2.4% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 54.8% (0.1% 1st, 54.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 34.6% (1.0% 1st, 33.6% 2nd)
TCU: 11.7% (2.3% 1st, 9.4% 2nd)
Basically, if ISU wins out from that point on, they're in as #2. And if they don't win out, they're out.
I'm a firm believer that if we beat Iowa/Texas we don't beat OU.
So I'm not in the crowd that says "We could be 7-1". That's a stretch for me!
Win out and we will be #5 at best in the final playoff rankings and left out despite 4 top 10 wins (OU, TCU, OSU, and the conference championship game).
If we win out, we'd have 50/50 shot at the playoffs in my opinion.
I'd give us a 5% shot at best - and that's with everything in other conferences breaking our way. The committee will do all they can to maximize the presence of B1G, SEC, and notre dame in the playoffs. At 11-2 (with 4 top 10 wins), the committee will pat us on the head and say better luck next time.