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Are we even a tournament team?

Are we a tournament team?

  • Yes

    Votes: 111 89.5%

  • No - NIT baby!

    Votes: 13 10.5%
  • Total voters
    124
CoachHines3 said:


NET: 19

results-based metrics
SOR: 28
KPI: 26

predictive metrics
KenPom: 22
Sagarin: 31
BPI: 21

I see a 5 seed worst is 6.
Click to expand...

That SOR having us at the worst 7 gives me pause. They stick pretty close to SOR, even moreso than NET (iirc from an analysis last year).

But I don't think an 8 is in play at all, NET should keep us off that. Hope we win a game (or 2?) in KC and remove all doubt. In the end, matchup will matter more than seed for this team.
 
I wish people would make Lunardi and Palm irrelevant by not following them/resharing their stuff. I know I am guilty of that sometimes but more often to mock them. They are simply not good at this compared to many many others.
 
  • Winner
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CascadeClone said:
That SOR having us at the worst 7 gives me pause. They stick pretty close to SOR, even moreso than NET (iirc from an analysis last year).

But I don't think an 8 is in play at all, NET should keep us off that. Hope we win a game (or 2?) in KC and remove all doubt. In the end, matchup will matter more than seed for this team.
Click to expand...
I think we are right on the last 5/first 6 line.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: CyPunch
We are definitely in the tournament. I hope we don’t get what Joe Lunardi has us paired up with.

Oral Roberts. For sure a first round slayer. 30-4. And those 4 loses with formidable opponents. Give me Drake before ORU.
 
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mjhavlo76 said:
We are definitely in the tournament. I hope we don’t get what Joe Lunardi has us paired up with.

Oral Roberts. For sure a first round slayer. 30-4. And those 4 loses with formidable opponents. Give me Drake before ORU.
Click to expand...
We are likely a 5 or 6. The teams likely in the 11/12 lines are:

VCU
Oral Roberts
Charleston
Drake
NC State
Pitt
Penn State
Mississippi State
Rutgers
Nevada
 
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fcclone said:
Who are the two most favorable matchups and who do we want to avoid? Guessing Charleston and Oral Roberts we want to avoid.
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I honestly don't know. I don't want to face Charleston. I don't think Nevada is that great but have only seen them a couple of times. Pitt seems to be a bit overrated so they don't really scare me and the ACC was WAY down this year to boot. Give me Rutgers if they actually make the tourney. They lost a key player and just aren't the same and are in a bit of a freefall. I think we SHOULD beat Drake and rather soundly but the whole in-state rival thing I just don't want to see it happen.
 
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dahliaclone said:
I honestly don't know. I don't want to face Charleston. I don't think Nevada is that great but have only seen them a couple of times. Pitt seems to be a bit overrated so they don't really scare me and the ACC was WAY down this year to boot. Give me Rutgers if they actually make the tourney. They lost a key player and just aren't the same and are in a bit of a freefall. I think we SHOULD beat Drake and rather soundly but the whole in-state rival thing I just don't want to see it happen.
Click to expand...

And now I definitely don't want Rutgers the way this season has gone with this scenario.
 
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No to Drake because they're an in-state rival...
No to Pitt because they have a former ISU guy on their roster who will have a woody to score 30 on us...
Yes to Rutgers (unless we're out east) as mentioned above
Yes to Penn State (unless out east)
No to Charleston...31 wins means you're a pretty damn formidable team and would be a dreaded 5/12 match up
No to Oral Roberts too.
 
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fcclone said:
Who are the two most favorable matchups and who do we want to avoid? Guessing Charleston and Oral Roberts we want to avoid.
Click to expand...
Said it earlier, but whoever doesnt like to guard the perimeter hard is who we want. Thats ISU matchup poison imho.
 
CascadeClone said:
Said it earlier, but whoever doesnt like to guard the perimeter hard is who we want. Thats ISU matchup poison imho.
Click to expand...

Anyone with length out there will be a problem.

ISU's great in how they keep at it even if things aren't going well but they're vulnerable in a lot of scenarios.

I'm curious to see if there's continued growth tomorrow after the mixup.
 
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madguy30 said:
Anyone with length out there will be a problem.

ISU's great in how they keep at it even if things aren't going well but they're vulnerable in a lot of scenarios.

I'm curious to see if there's continued growth tomorrow after the mixup.
Click to expand...
What mixup?
 
fcclone said:
Who are the two most favorable matchups and who do we want to avoid? Guessing Charleston and Oral Roberts we want to avoid.
Click to expand...

Out of the lot of potential 12 seeds, top three in order Iowa State wants to avoid.

1.) Oral Roberts
2.) Drake
3.) Charleston

The rest I’ll take all day.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Statefan10
dahliaclone said:
We are likely a 5 or 6. The teams likely in the 11/12 lines are:

VCU
Oral Roberts
Charleston
Drake
NC State
Pitt
Penn State
Mississippi State
Rutgers
Nevada
Click to expand...

Good list of teams-

I've gone ahead and put KenPom rank, AdjO and AdjD next to each:

VCU: 76 - 163o- 22d
Oral Roberts: 55 - 23o - 105d
Charleston: 74 - 69o - 72d
Drake: 66- 95o - 44d
NC State: 52- 34o - 81d
Pitt: 68 - 29o - 110d
Penn State: 50 -17o - 123d
Mississippi State: 45 - 158o - 7d
Rutgers: 42 - 172o - 4d
Nevada: 39 - 62o - 38d

Looking at that- I'm not sure who I'd want to play. Probably a team that isn't as good on defense as they are on offense like Pitt or Penn St.

Could our defense slow down Oral Roberts offense? Maybe.. their defense isn't superb but still decent. I think this is the team I'd want to avoid the most.

VCU might not be able to score points against us, but they would be tough for our offense. They are 5th in the nation in TO% and 10th in Steal%

Charleston seems like a very solid team overall. Holding opponents to 30% from 3 which is good for 10th in the nation. Along with that, they are 17th in the nation is offensive rebounding. We struggled against WVU.
 
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Most 12 seeds are generally ranked in the 65-75 range (KenPom). Oral Roberts is probably deserving of being a higher seed. Drake has an argument too.

Projected 12 seeds
Oral Roberts - 55
Drake - 66
Charleston - 74
VCU - 76

Projected 13 seeds
Yale - 71
Iona - 78
Utah Valley - 79
Toledo - 84

Funny to look back at last year's 12s. Iowa got a gift in a historically weak 12 seed AND were paired with a historically weak 4 seed in Providence :)

2022 12 seeds
Indiana (Play-in winner) - 28 (Lost first round)
UAB - 60 (Lost first round)
New Mexico St - 76 (Upset UConn first round)
Richmond - 93 (Upset Iowa first round)
 
Last edited:
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