A Look at the Final 4 Games

[AirWalke]

I've been keeping track of the stats of our opponents and our own team for the entire season, although I've been slacking off because I've been lulled into a deep sports cynicism/depression for the past few weeks. The Baylor game was a monumental drop off considering the perfect storm of events that transpired between that game and the heartbreaking loss to Kansas the week before.

However, I was surprised to find that, after updating the stats from the Nebraska and Texas A&M games, our Cyclones have been improving. Maybe it doesn't feel like it, but even though a lot of our own fans found on this message board have given up, the players haven't, and for that reason they still merit our support.

They still have a long ways to go, and if the team even keeps it close with OSU this Saturday, it will be one of the best performances seen since the first two games of the season.

And even though I appear to be presenting the silver lining within this mess of a season, it still does not look very good. Beating OSU will go a long way to resurrecting fan interest for the next season, but finishing 6-6 will take no less than divine intervention. 5-7, maybe.

But my predictions based on team performance has us finishing 3-9 with a win versus Colorado.

The attached graph is based on my calculated spreads (with home field advantage factored in), and the spread accuracy after the game has been played out. The spread accuracy, I find, represents a better look at whether a team overachieves or underachieves at a particular portion of the season, and whether a team is doing better or getting worse.

vs. SDSU W 44-17
vs. Kent State W 48-28
at Iowa L 5-17
at UNLV L 31-34 OT
bye
vs. Kansas L 33-35
at Baylor L 10-38
vs. Nebraska L 7-35
vs. Texas A&M L 35-49
at Oklahoma State L 14-45
at Colorado W 31-28
vs. Missouri L 31-38
at Kansas State L 24-34

 

[ISUFan22]

The Oklahoma State score seems rather accurate and about what I'd anticipate.

We surely could win that CU game, but our road woes and notably problems playing at CU are well documented.

Hanging that close with Mizzu? That would be almost like last year's OU game and would require the same type of physical, gritty, team performance. Something we really have yet to see this year.

KSU is a go figure for me. At home I'd like our chances - but again, it's on the road.

Thanks for doing this. Can you find your old post that was updated through the first few games to see how accurate the past few week's projections have been?

 

[clonomaniac]

at Oklahoma State L 14-45
at Colorado W 31-28
vs. Missouri L 31-38
at Kansas State L 24-34

WE WILL LOSE ALL OF THE REMAINING FOUR GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 4 TD'S.

There is NO WAY we win any. They are all tough games and unless Mr. Chizik can start coaching this team, we will be manhandled each and every yard we play.

 

[Flag Guy]

WE WILL LOSE ALL OF THE REMAINING FOUR GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 4 TD'S.

There is NO WAY we win any. They are all tough games and unless Mr. Chizik can start coaching this team, we will be manhandled each and every yard we play.

 

[Goclones1727]

WE WILL LOSE ALL OF THE REMAINING FOUR GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 4 TD'S.

There is NO WAY we win any. They are all tough games and unless Mr. Chizik can start coaching this team, we will be manhandled each and every yard we play.

wow

 

[AirWalke]

WE WILL LOSE ALL OF THE REMAINING FOUR GAMES BY AN AVERAGE OF 4 TD'S.

There is NO WAY we win any. They are all tough games and unless Mr. Chizik can start coaching this team, we will be manhandled each and every yard we play.

I don't think you understand how bad CU has been playing lately. ISU, A&M, and CU have been pretty awful compared to the rest of the conference.

 

[AirWalke]

The Oklahoma State score seems rather accurate and about what I'd anticipate.

We surely could win that CU game, but our road woes and notably problems playing at CU are well documented.

Hanging that close with Mizzu? That would be almost like last year's OU game and would require the same type of physical, gritty, team performance. Something we really have yet to see this year.

KSU is a go figure for me. At home I'd like our chances - but again, it's on the road.

Thanks for doing this. Can you find your old post that was updated through the first few games to see how accurate the past few week's projections have been?

I can't find my post at the moment, although I'm not sure I even posted it. May take a little more looking around.

I think I may have said that we'd beat either Kansas or Baylor (not both), Texas A&M, Nebraska, and maybe Colorado for a 6-6 record. Obviously, that got shot down by a very surprising blowout to Baylor that drastically affected the season.

The Missouri game has been a strange anomaly for us in the past (with the exception of 2003), which is why I think it's reasonable to predict a close game, especially if we beat CU for our first road win in years. Average margin of victory with the 2003 game factored in, 10.8... without the 2003 game, 6.3.

2007: L 28-42 (In a game that was closer than the final indicates)
2006: W 21-16
2005: L 24-27 OT
2004: L 14-17 OT
2003: L 7-45
2002: W 42-35
2001: W 20-14

 

[weR138]

However, I was surprised to find that, after updating the stats from the Nebraska and Texas A&M games, our Cyclones have been improving. Maybe it doesn't feel like it, but even though a lot of our own fans found on this message board have given up, the players haven't, and for that reason they still merit our support.

vs. SDSU W 44-17
vs. Kent State W 48-28
at Iowa L 5-17
at UNLV L 31-34 OT
bye
vs. Kansas L 33-35
at Baylor L 10-38
vs. Nebraska L 7-35
vs. Texas A&M L 35-49
at Oklahoma State L 14-45
at Colorado W 31-28
vs. Missouri L 31-38
at Kansas State L 24-34[/quote]

A-dub,

You've piqued my interest. I'm one who has been careful not to make any record predictions and has been more interested in the improvement of the team. You state that we're improving. In what aspects? Could you elaborate.

Like many here I feel like we're doing the opposite of improving, mostly because of the last three games. Can you give me some hope?

 

[hobbsfan27]

that is alot of work great job.

 

[Cy Heavy]

I don't think you understand how bad CU has been playing lately. ISU, A&M, and CU have been pretty awful compared to the rest of the conference.

A&M and Baylor weren't exactly lighting the world on fire either and we made them both look like conference champions.

We don't win another game this year. I actually see bright days ahead (next year) but those days aren't going to happen in the next month.

 

[Aclone]

However, I was surprised to find that, after updating the stats from the Nebraska and Texas A&M games, our Cyclones have been improving. Maybe it doesn't feel like it, but even though a lot of our own fans found on this message board have given up, the players haven't, and for that reason they still merit our support.

+1 to you.

 

[clones26]

we win all 4 and go to a bowl! That statement is equally as crazy as clonomaniac's statement that we will lose the games by an average of 4td's. I say it will be somewhere in the middle

 

[aeroclone]

I don't think you understand how bad CU has been playing lately. ISU, A&M, and CU have been pretty awful compared to the rest of the conference.

Perhaps you missed the news, but we played a&m in Ames for homecoming this last weekend, and it didn't end well for us. Plus we have sent teams to Boulder much much better than this and lost. Heck, we struggle there in pretty much every sport. And in football, our road problems are much farther reaching than Colorado. CU coming to Ames and I think we have a shot, but with our road woes in general and at Bouldar in particular, I see a loss here.

Same deal with KSU, I think we have a shot if we are at home.

Sorry, I see 0-4 down the stretch. I think there may be some flashes along the way though, hang around with OSU for a while, or play yet another close game with Mizzou, but when it is all said and done, I would be shocked if we don't finish 2-10.

 

[cmoneyr]

Improving in what ways exactly?

I'd be surprised if we lose to Okie St. by less than 30, and Mizzou by less than 35. Our defense is non existant. Colorado may be close, but being on the road kills it for us, same with K State although they're a better team than Colorado.

 

[AirWalke]

You've piqued my interest. I'm one who has been careful not to make any record predictions and has been more interested in the improvement of the team. You state that we're improving. In what aspects? Could you elaborate.

Like many here I feel like we're doing the opposite of improving, mostly because of the last three games. Can you give me some hope?

This is all relative to the quality of team that we're playing... for instance, if we played Nebraska the same way we did versus Baylor, we would have probably lost 42-7, but thankfully it never got to be that bad. Same with A&M... if we played them the same way we did versus Baylor, the score would have been 56-28. It's not massive strides of improvement, but it's there, and the team is seriously trying to recover.

I feel like that the offense has been improving since the Baylor debacle, and surely showed glimpses of what they could be a year or so from now against 2nd half UNLV and first half Kansas. The defense has been holding firm to a very poor standard, and is probably the key reason for the six game losing streak.

I guess it'd be about the same improvement as running a 4.85 when you ran a 4.97 a week ago. It's not a huge improvement, but it's there, and I feel like based on what I've seen, is beginning to accelerate again, and hopefully will do so in time for 1 or 2 more wins before the season is out.

 

[cstrunk]

This is all relative to the quality of team that we're playing... for instance, if we played Nebraska the same way we did versus Baylor, we would have probably lost 42-7, but thankfully it never got to be that bad. Same with A&M... if we played them the same way we did versus Baylor, the score would have been 56-28. It's not massive strides of improvement, but it's there, and the team is seriously trying to recover.

I feel like that the offense has been improving since the Baylor debacle, and surely showed glimpses of what they could be a year or so from now against 2nd half UNLV and first half Kansas. The defense has been holding firm to a very poor standard, and is probably the key reason for the six game losing streak.

I guess it'd be about the same improvement as running a 4.85 when you ran a 4.97 a week ago. It's not a huge improvement, but it's there, and I feel like based on what I've seen, is beginning to accelerate again, and hopefully will do so in time for 1 or 2 more wins before the season is out.

I don't know at what point you left the NU game, but the final score did end up to be 35-7. I guess that's a lot better than 42-7...

I'm glad that you are trying to be optimistic, but I think you are really struggling to find something to be optimistic about. I don't think our 2 TD loss to A&M (the worst Big 12 team besides us) at home is any sign of improvement either.

 

[Indyclone]

What the D has given up the last 6 games:
17
34
35
38
35
49

Not sure how you see improvement here.

 

[Flag Guy]

What the D has given up the last 6 games:
17
34
35
38
35
49

Not sure how you see improvement here.

You're only looking at half the coin...


That said, the other half may be getting better but we do need improvement on both sides... seems like we've always been cursed to never have both an offense and a defense at the same time... or never have 2 halves of a football game...

 

[pyrocyz]

Insert Sarcasm here...(just so people know)

I think that you are right...we won't win another game on the road ever. There is no way that a team could win on the road against a road team. There is no way a team like stanford or mississippi state could ever win a road game against a road team.


End Sarcasm

Personally, I am an eternal optimist and I think that we have a strong chance still to win at least 2 more games. This team rebounded last year...its time for someone to standup and become a leader. Arnaud has shown a lot of heart and grit over the past couple of games. Colorado and K-state are the types of teams that we can get road woes fixed against. We as fans can not give up yet, there is still a chance that we can sneak a win a way from Mizzou or OKie state. They may not be good chances at all but, there is a chance. It happens all the time. Do you think that a team like Okie State is going to take us seriously when they have a game at Texas Tech coming up the next week?? Do you think that any team is going to take us seriously?? This is our chance to keep the offense going and try to win some games.


LETS GO STATE!!!

 

[Wesley]

Until you can win conference games at home, it is hard to win on the road. Yet, our best hope is the Colorado game. Still waiting for that 60 minute game.