A Look at the Final 4 Games

[Cycloneman]

We will win out the rest of the season. Thats right upsetting Ok State, and Missouri. Having us finish 6-6 and qualifying for a bowl game.

You guys must be asking "how can he make such a statement?" Well why not? The only consistent thing that this Cyclone team has shown is that they are inconsistent from week to week....

Ok so I realize that this will be improbable however I still think we can beat both Colorado, and Kansas State. If we don't though thats ok with me as long as we get some good recruits to really start something special.

 

[Indyclone]

You're only looking at half the coin...


That said, the other half may be getting better but we do need improvement on both sides... seems like we've always been cursed to never have both an offense and a defense at the same time... or never have 2 halves of a football game...

You're right it is only half the coin, but it is the half that will win football games. When you have to score 40 plus every weekend you won't win many games. It doesn't matter how much the offense improves if the defense can't stop anyone. 35 points should be enough to win a game yet we score that and lose by 14.

I will use Iowa as an example. Not so much this year but last year they had one of the worst offenses in the Big 10 yet won 6 games because their defense kept them in every game.

 

[Wesley]

I've been keeping track of the stats of our opponents and our own team for the entire season, although I've been slacking off because I've been lulled into a deep sports cynicism/depression for the past few weeks. The Baylor game was a monumental drop off considering the perfect storm of events that transpired between that game and the heartbreaking loss to Kansas the week before.

However, I was surprised to find that, after updating the stats from the Nebraska and Texas A&M games, our Cyclones have been improving. Maybe it doesn't feel like it, but even though a lot of our own fans found on this message board have given up, the players haven't, and for that reason they still merit our support.

They still have a long ways to go, and if the team even keeps it close with OSU this Saturday, it will be one of the best performances seen since the first two games of the season.

And even though I appear to be presenting the silver lining within this mess of a season, it still does not look very good. Beating OSU will go a long way to resurrecting fan interest for the next season, but finishing 6-6 will take no less than divine intervention. 5-7, maybe.

But my predictions based on team performance has us finishing 3-9 with a win versus Colorado.

The attached graph is based on my calculated spreads (with home field advantage factored in), and the spread accuracy after the game has been played out. The spread accuracy, I find, represents a better look at whether a team overachieves or underachieves at a particular portion of the season, and whether a team is doing better or getting worse.

vs. SDSU W 44-17
vs. Kent State W 48-28
at Iowa L 5-17
at UNLV L 31-34 OT
bye
vs. Kansas L 33-35
at Baylor L 10-38
vs. Nebraska L 7-35
vs. Texas A&M L 35-49
at Oklahoma State L 14-45
at Colorado W 31-28
vs. Missouri L 31-38
at Kansas State L 24-34

This is not quite like the Dow Jones today....:wideeyed:

 

[Melvin]

Nice, Positive article.

I do think ISU can finish strong and be set up nice for 2009.

Considering that ISU finished strong last year, that would be a nice name for Iowa State Football.

 

[CYdTracked]

I smell a 2-10 season guys. If we can't beat Baylor and A&M can't see how CU will be any different with how we are playing right now.

 

[jaretac]

I think a win at Colorado or at Kansas St. is obtainable. Colorado's offense is awefull and that might give us some hope as our offense is starting to play good ball again. I would be happy at this point to at least improve upon last years record.

 

[AirWalke]

What the D has given up the last 6 games:
17
34
35
38
35
49

Not sure how you see improvement here.

This would work if we played the same team every week. We don't. The fact is that every team is different, and all I'm pointing out is the team's performance relative to what they statistically should be performing, and comparing it to previous results. That big drop you see is the Baylor game, where they beat us by about 30 points more than they should have (statistically, the game is a tie). That's a massive breakdown in performance.

Since then, the graph measures the actual results relative to what the line should be on paper.

 

[CYdTracked]

What the D has given up the last 6 games:
17
34
35
38
35
49

Not sure how you see improvement here.

I agree with you completely on this. Bottom line is even if our offense plays out of it's mind like it did Saturday our defense is still letting us down. We can't expect to win games by having to score 40 (or in the A&M game) 50 points on a consistent basis. The defense is terrible right now and there is no excuse for giving up 34+ points in 4 consecutive games.

 

[mustangcy]

Not to upset the 'no moral victory' crowd but at this point we just need to improve each week and keep these games as close as possible. I'd love a win or two but really I'm hoping to keep these games close. I'll take close losses at this point in the season.

We've got to have some kind of momentum going into next year and at this point playing some good teams close or really sub-par teams close would give us that.

 

[MontyBurns]

I smell a 2-10 season guys. If we can't beat Baylor and A&M can't see how CU will be any different with how we are playing right now.

Going to a BCS bowl next year will be a better story when it comes on the heels of a 2-10 season.