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***2024 NFL Season***

CloneIce said:
Nah, this is the NFC championship. You don’t make your decisions based off what will yield the greatest expected value over many samples. Your decisions should be solely focused on what will win you that one game.

It was clearly a mistake to not kick those field goals in this specific situation.
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I understand going out there and being yourself. But if you go down that way people will rightfully question not taking the points. And in the postgame Dan Campbell admits he knew they would make a comeback, which makes those decisions even more questionable. There's an opportunity cost to every decision a coach makes out on the field.
 
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Bigman38 said:
Detroit's kicker is 77% from 40-49, so a quarter of the time you give up the ball in the same place as a failed conversion. I'm not assuming success on subsequent plays, but obviously it gets more and more likely.

It's an ESPN+ article but it's an interesting breakdown of the decisions

www.espn.com

Barnwell: The truth behind Detroit's disastrous second half and Baltimore's botched Super Bowl chance

The Lions surrendered a 17-point second-half lead, while the vaunted Ravens scored just 10 points. Here's how the 49ers and Chiefs won.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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It’s actually worse because after a missed FG they place the ball at the spot of the kick, not the snap. So there’s 7-8 yards advantage to the other team if you miss, compared to going for it and failing.
 
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KidSilverhair said:
The second one I think I agree with - you need to just tie up the game at that point. The first one, I could see going for it and keeping the pedal down.
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If the Lions don's lose their minds for about 8 game minutes after that first failed conversion it's probably not even in the conversation.

Instead it's a bobbled INT that turns into a 50 yard completion, RB/QB exchange gone wrong and several dropped passes to open receivers that would have likely backed SF off a bit.

Momentum is a hell of a drug.
 
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Look, NFL coaches get paid a lot to make decisions like this, and bear the consequences. That’s their job. Me, I didn’t think the first decision to go for it on 4th down was that bad of a choice; the second time I think the smart play would have been to take the 3 and tie it up. But I’m not Dan Campbell.

It’s easy to see the result of a coach’s choice and then praise him if it works or rip him if it doesn’t, but hindsight is always perfect while life isn’t. It’s also easy to say “what the heck is he doing?” when a coach leaves the offense on the field for 4th down in a tight game, then exclaim “See? I told you that was dumb” when the play fails … but do we still shake our heads and rip into that coach for being “dumb” if the offense picks up the first down, then finishes the drive with a TD? Or do we give grudging credit for the gamble paying off? Imagine the praise Campbell would be getting today if both those calls had worked and ended up with TD drives and the Lions ended up winning by 14 or 17 or something. The fact the players didn’t execute (or the 49ers managed to stop them) doesn’t change what was going in on Campbell’s mind at that moment.

i still think he should have taken the tie when he had the chance, but that’s football. No guarantee that would have led to a Lions’ win either.
 
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KidSilverhair said:
It’s actually worse because after a missed FG they place the ball at the spot of the kick, not the snap. So there’s 7-8 yards advantage to the other team if you miss, compared to going for it and failing.
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I think if you’ve reached the point where that is a factor in deciding whether to kick a field goal to tie the game in the 4th or go for it…. You are way overthinking it. And you need a new kicker.
 
CloneIce said:
I think if you’ve reached the point where that is a factor in deciding whether to kick a field goal to tie the game in the 4th or go for it…. You are way overthinking it. And you need a new kicker.
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I didn’t say it was a factor for Campbell, Bigman brought up that going for it and missing/kicking and missing was a wash, and it’s not.

And again, Jake Moody of the missed 41-yard attempt at Cleveland that would have won the game says hi. And Tyler Bass waves from Buffalo, speaking of 4th-quarter game-tying field goal tries going wide right.

Field goals aren’t automatic. Converting 4th downs aren’t automatic. That’s where the coach’s judgment comes in, and yes, it’s totally valid for us fans to be critical of whichever choice they make - but it’s never really a choice between an automatic three points vs. a failed 4th down conversion.
 
KidSilverhair said:
I didn’t say it was a factor for Campbell, Bigman brought up that going for it and missing/kicking and missing was a wash, and it’s not.

And again, Jake Moody of the missed 41-yard attempt at Cleveland that would have won the game says hi. And Tyler Bass waves from Buffalo, speaking of 4th-quarter game-tying field goal tries going wide right.

Field goals aren’t automatic. Converting 4th downs aren’t automatic. That’s where the coach’s judgment comes in, and yes, it’s totally valid for us fans to be critical of whichever choice they make - but it’s never really a choice between an automatic three points vs. a failed 4th down conversion.
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Of course. I have not argued the false choice between an automatic field goal vs a failed 4th down conversion, and I am aware that kickers miss field goals. There is no need to tell me this.

I do think the arguments around analytics supporting the Lions choices are flawed. Because they mix up large sample size based decisions and the unique game specific decisions that best help win specific football games in specific circumstances.
 
I know it is Flag Football but this is still a hell of a throw by Stroud:



 
The flag football isn't really for me but I've enjoyed the glimpses I've seen of all the other skills challenges
 
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