Somewhere I saw the list of guys that have to be added to the 40-man or risk losing to the Rule V draft.
It's like 7 or 8 long. Including guys here people say "better not trade."
They're absolutely going to have to trade some prospects or young guys already up to make room. Otherwise they'll lose some for nothing.
Some of the names everybody likes will get moved. It's inevitable this year.
Found some examples.
Spencer Steer will have to be on the 40 man. He is an infielder and if you assume a 1 for 1 swap, you probably have to cut Nick Gordon. Not a huge deal, but he is a nice utility guy, doesn't have to play every day and cheap. Your other option is getting rid of Urshela. The other IFs who take up a 40 man slot are Lewis (60 day DL so not on 40 man now), Sano (who will lose his sport to Lewis, Polanco, Miranda, Urshela, Correa, Arraez and Gordon. You probably lose Correa, freeing up a spot for Steer, but you'd be committing to Steer or Lewis as your every day shortstop next year.
But wait, AA 2B. Hitting very well (0.888 OPS). Draws a lot of walks and doesn't strike out crazy high. He "might" slip through the Rule 5 draft, but he's a risk. You even have Will Holland in Cedar Rapids. Probably gets by the Rule 5 draft, but a rebuilding team might be good with him as a fast, utility guy to see if it works. Twins lost Akil Baddoo in the exact same scenario (I'mnot losing sleep over that and probably wouldn't lose sleep over Will Holland).
Knowing that, it makes the idea of trading Steer for a top end RP or Lewis or Miranda for a top end SP more palatable.
Look at the OF. Buxton, Kepler, Garlick, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, Contreras. You dont' need to keep Contreras. Most will say you don't need to keep Garlick, but the way he mashes lefties, I'd want to keep him. Celestino might be expendable, but I like him as a backup OF.
for R5 guys, Matt Wallner will be on the 40 man. No other eligible OF prospects stand out, so probably no worries there.
Pitchers, we have a crap ton of dime a dozen RPs that can be dropped. Bundy and Archer could be dropped. Alcala, Maeda, Dobnak, Paddack and Stashak are all on the 60 day DL and will need a 4 man spot when healthy, so the first 5 you drop are automatically filled.
You can drop the following RP.
Joe Smith
Emilio Pagan (although they definitely won't)
Trevor Megill
Blaine Enlow (although I doubt they give up on him)
Drew Strotman (although I doubt you give up on him)
Jharel Cotton
Yennier Cano
So thats 7 RP and 2 SP you could drop. 5 of those slots go to the 60 day DL guys and you know they are going to fill 2 RP roles with mediocre free agents, so at best, you've got 2 spots you could fill for rule 5 guys.
Here are guys that could be picked up in Rule 5.
Matt Canterino
Simeon Woods Richardson
Louie Varland
Sawyer Gipson-Long
Honestly, trading Winder, Sands or Alcala for the right piece would be okay. Trading Balazovich or Henriquez or Enlow for a RP wouldn't be bad.