2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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KU not having a double bye would make me happy!
Probably need 2-1 to win the regular season title unless Houston stumbles.
1-2 should keep ISU ahead of the rest of the pack and in line for a tourney appearance in Omaha as a 2-3 seed.
I think winning the road game at Houston is close to a prerequisite for winning the conference outright at this point. Hard to see how it works out like that without winning that game.
Tying them/finishing second in the Big 12 and ending up as a #2 or #3 in Omaha is still going to be possible losing the rematch with the Cougars, though. The committee won't frown on that loss.
But it would sure as heck love it if it happens.
The regular season title is still Houston's to lose. We need another 2-0 week to begin the discussion. Tough game tonight.
I get winning a regular season conf. title is nice, but to me it's just a "meh" thing. I'd rather have a great seed for the tourney (i know winning the conf title would do that, too) but 1-2 in the next 3 won't hurt our seed line too much
Probably the only way we win the Big 12 outright if we lose at Houston is we run the table in the rest of our games. Then it would take Houston losing 2 out of @ Oklahoma, @ Baylor, and Kansas.
We should just win at Houston, it becomes much easier then!
I hope there's a "YOU GUYS STINK!" cutout of UNLV Rebel Girl in the locker room somewhere.
#8 on Kenpom now! 1st in defensive turnover percentage if you were wondering haha.
Also have us tied at 13-5 with Houston now!
Also have us tied at 13-5 with Houston now!
Holding the line for a #2 and Omaha...
Decided to run a Monte Carlo situation (using Torvik's numbers) to see just how important the Houston game is to the Big 12 Championship race. First column is current chances, second column is odds if ISU beats Houston, third column is odds if Houston beats ISU. Not looking at tiebreakers, just records.
| EXACT OUTCOME | current | ISU over UH | UH over ISU |
| Houston alone: | 59% | 16% | 70% |
| Houston/ISU tie: | 17% | 22% | 16% |
| ISU alone: | 17% | 54% | 7% |
| Houston/TT tie: | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Houston/TT/ISU tie: | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| TT alone: | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Other: | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| WINS INCLUDING TIES | current | ISU over UH | UH over ISU |
| Houston: | 82% | 43% | 91% |
| ISU: | 37% | 82% | 27% |
| TT: | 4% | 6% | 4% |
| Baylor: | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| BYU: | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Kansas: | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Was waiting for this to update this morning, finally cutting into Houston's lead!
When they left the studio after our game I thought the last thing they said before moving on was that if the NCAA bracket came out today ISU would be a 1 seed. Did I hear that right? I know it is probably Lunardi bull****, but I just wanted to make sure I heard that right. Because I'm a Cyclone.
I think they meant 1 seed in the Big12 tourney
Another shoutout to Curtis Jones. In the first 4 conference games, he scored 12 total points. Since then he's scored at least 11 in each game.
He's really covered for Milan's drop in output the last several games
| Minutes/g | 2pt FG% | 2pt Att/g | 3pt FG% | 3pt Att/g | FT% | FT Att/g | Assists | Steals | Turnovers | Points/g | |
| First 4 | 23.8 | 30% | 2.5 | 22.2% | 2.3 | N/A | 0 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3.0 |
| Last 7 | 29.6 | 61.3% | 4.5 | 35.7% | 6 | 85% | 2.9 | 13 | 14 | 4 | 12.1 |
He's really covered for Milan's drop in output the last several games
Milan scored 2 last night and we still won handily. If he could catch fire here going into March.. woah buddy
He is definitely going to have one of those games. Houston would be a great time for it.
They mentioned in the broadcast that they put their best defender on him. Clearly wanted to limit his offense. Glad it didn't workout overall though.
Pretty sure most opposing teams have singled out Milan as a focus of their defense in the last several games, and while I definitely see why they would do that, it's certainly not working out overall for them.