Obviously hope to win every game, but honestly i'd be pretty happy locking in a top 4 berth in the conference tournament and getting that double bye as a 2/3 seed.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I'm okay with that. It used to be a huge disadvantage for teams in strong leagues because they were beating each other up in their last 10, last 15, etc. metrics while teams in weak leagues had their losses against decent teams in their non-con count less than their "momentum" when playing in their weak assed conference.
I'm also glad that they aren't supposed to give much creedence to the non-con SOS metric since it counted the non-con games twice both in the NCSOS and overall SOS.
Scoring 47 against Jackson State at home that year was something I'll never forget unfortunately.
Big 12 standings
Team... Rec ... TF ... GB
1. UH... 7-3 ... +2 ... X
2. ISU... 6-3 ... +2 ... .5
3. BU... 6-3 ... +1 ... .5
4. KU... 6-4 ... +1 ... 1.0
5. TTU... 5-4 ... +1 ... 1.5
6. TCU... 5-4 ... +0 ... 1.5
7. OU... 5-5 ... +0 ... 2.0
7. KSU... 5-5 ... +0 ... 2.0
9. Cin... 4-5 ... +0 ... 2.5
9. BYU... 4-5 ... +0 ... 2.5
11. UCF... 4-5 ... -1 ... 2.5
12. UT... 4-6 ... -1 ... 3.0
13. WVU... 3-6 ... -2 ... 3.5
14. OSU... 2-8 ... -3 ... 5.0
If you take into account the Tim Floyd standings (+1 for road win, -1 for home loss) ISU is all alone in second place.
They are even on losses with Houston with the only difference is one more home game played and won for UH.
Team... Rec ... TF ... GB
1. UH... 7-3 ... +2 ... X
2. ISU... 6-3 ... +2 ... .5
3. BU... 6-3 ... +1 ... .5
4. KU... 6-4 ... +1 ... 1.0
5. TTU... 5-4 ... +1 ... 1.5
6. TCU... 5-4 ... +0 ... 1.5
7. OU... 5-5 ... +0 ... 2.0
7. KSU... 5-5 ... +0 ... 2.0
9. Cin... 4-5 ... +0 ... 2.5
9. BYU... 4-5 ... +0 ... 2.5
11. UCF... 4-5 ... -1 ... 2.5
12. UT... 4-6 ... -1 ... 3.0
13. WVU... 3-6 ... -2 ... 3.5
14. OSU... 2-8 ... -3 ... 5.0
If you take into account the Tim Floyd standings (+1 for road win, -1 for home loss) ISU is all alone in second place.
They are even on losses with Houston with the only difference is one more home game played and won for UH.
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Jackson St. wasn't good but did rank #187 on defense that year.
Torvik actually has a few games with worse offensive efficiency from that season...
70.2 (36 against Oklahoma St.)
76.2 (44 against TCU)
77.8 (60 against Oregon St.)
78.5 (47 against Jackson St.)
The box score against Oklahoma St. is just disgusting...
13 Brockington
12 Hunter
4 Jones
3 Kalscheur
2 Conditt
2 Kunc
13/36 from two
2/17 from three
4/10 from the line
16 turnovers
That was it. Barf.
Id say it sucks that we only get 3 games in the 'should win' category while some teams get 5, but I also wouldnt necessarily put @WVU in that category at this point.
Might be the scariest team left on the schedule for perception and as things tighten up down the stretch.
My main hope is ISU is firmly in the tourney by then so seeding is the only thing left.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding your post but we don’t play @WVU. We get TCU, Tech, OU, and WVU, BYU at home. We have Cincinnati, Houston, KSU, and UCF on the road.
If we sweep the home games and split the road that is a great record for the season.
That’ll get you a share of the conference title I bet
Saw this on reddit yesterday from EvanMiya - they have Gilbert/Momcilovic/BRE as the 4th best 3-man unit IN THE COUNTRY.
1) Lipsey isn't part of our most efficient unit
2) The efficiency metrics love BRE
3) Milan's defense is that good
4) We got a gem in Keshon
1) Lipsey isn't part of our most efficient unit
2) The efficiency metrics love BRE
3) Milan's defense is that good
4) We got a gem in Keshon
West Virginia has a much higher potential than their metrics suggest but they've been awful on the road. 0-4 in Big 12 play on the road with 3 double digit losses.
I believe he’s referencing the matrix not our remaining schedule. Winning at WVU has proved tougher than “should win” suggests.
How many more games before Texas home and road get flipped. They are anemic in Moody.
Alex Gookin added the SOS both looking back and looking forward to his great graphic:
