2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Letterkenny]

3pt shooting today isn't what it was 10 years ago with the line moving back. 35% is the new 40%. 40% is the new 45%. 40% is the modern era is elite for any individual, much less a whole team hitting that mark.

Except for BYU. They shoot the 3 like teams did 10-15 years ago.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Really weird that our tournament odds would drop 8% from a loss that was expected, but that's computer models I suppose.

If it was a close loss, as expected, then I doubt that % swings much.

The computer models just look askance at losing a game by that much even against a good team.

 

[VeloClone]

Current record: 13-4
Q1: 1-3
..Q1a: 1-2
..Q1b: 0-1
Q2: 2-1
..Q2a: 1-1
..Q2b: 1-0
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 9-0

Next 10:
@ 32 TCU - Q1a
69 KSU - Q2b
12 KU - Q1a
@ 13 BU - Q1a
@ 59 UT - Q1b
32 TCU - Q2a
@ 29 Cincy - Q1a
35 TTU - Q2a
@ 1 UH - Q1a
178 WVU - Q4

So that is:
Q1a - 5
Q1b - 1
Q2a - 2
Q2b - 1
Q3 - 0
Q4 - 1

 

[cyfan92]

I'm not even the slightest bit alarmed by any of that.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Quite, but then, I have some emotional control and decades of perspective.

 

[Dale]

Sign me up for 7-2 over the next 9!

More like 5-4 or 6-3 would be the actual projection, via adding up the percentages. That feels about right to me, given the opponents.

 

[CyPunch]

Sign me up for 7-2 over the next 9!

Not exactly how it works. 5-4 over the next 9 would be a great outcome.

 

[FarmClone]

If it was a close loss, as expected, then I doubt that % swings much.

The computer models just look askance at losing a game by that much even against a good team.

I swear to god I have to google a word you type, that I think is a typo, once a week.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Honestly - as long as we get a bid and stay off the 8/9 line I'm confident this team could perform in March.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I swear to god I have to google a word you type, that I think is a typo, once a week.

Thanks...?

 

[VeloClone]

Thanks...?

Great, now I have to Google that word...

 

[isufbcurt]

just win the home games and we are easily in

 

[Sigmapolis]

just win the home games and we are easily in

I put this in another thread but if you force home Ws and road Ls you end up with this...



Not bad. Very comfortably in the tournament.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I put this in another thread but if you force home Ws and road Ls you end up with this...

View attachment 122364

Not bad. Very comfortably in the tournament.

What the heck is Michigan State doing as a 5 seed?

 

[Sigmapolis]

What the heck is Michigan State doing as a 5 seed?

They're projected as #8 in the NET.

They actually look quite a lot like Iowa State in those various metrics.

 

[CyPunch]

They're projected as #8 in the NET.

They actually look quite a lot like Iowa State in those various metrics.

Was going to make a joke and say they better start winning basketball games but they have a ton of free wins ahead...

Minnesota
@Maryland
@Wisconsin
Michigan
Maryland
Minnesota

 

[Sigmapolis]

Was going to make a joke and say they better start winning basketball games but they have a ton of free wins ahead...

Minnesota
@Maryland
@Wisconsin
Michigan
Maryland
Minnesota

They're only not favored in two remaining contests...

 

[CyPunch]

They're only not favored in two remaining contests...

View attachment 122365

3rd easiest remaining SOS in the Big Ten. 54th easiest remaining SOS nationally.

 

[Sigmapolis]

3rd easiest remaining SOS in the Big Ten. 54th easiest remaining SOS nationally.

So yeah, Sparty has too many losses for one of the top seeds, but the computers like them and they've got enough easy Big Ten wins to end up in that range if they convert on the opportunity.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Give me an 11,10 or top 7 seed and I'm good to go!