I'm uncertain about what's truly possible because of so many sight-unseen parts of the puzzle. I got tired of reading about the scout team last season — and it wasn't because I didn't believe there was probably a lot of potential, and that a year off-court could pay dividends, but that it was continually referenced as a dangling carrot for 2011-12 even when last year's team was within about 4 wins of landing in the NIT.
That said, an NCAA bid ought to be the minimum goal. I won't call it a minimum expectation — a lot of that will depend on non-conference schedule and the overall strength of the New Big 12. I'm sure there could be circumstances that would make an NIT bid palatable. I'll know it when it happens.
I can set the bar lower than I'd prefer, but how long must that suffice? Heck, Morgan's last team and probably 3 of GMac's teams were within 3 wins of serious postseason contention. If Fred is going to succeed, he should be able to at least get Those Wins in the coming season.