Bracketology 2024

[cycloneworld]

I see Alabama is improving their resume by giving up 59 points in the first half to Kentucky!

Wonder how far they will fall in Kenpom!

No idea how or why but they seem insulated because of their offensive numbers. They are 2-6 (soon to be 2-7) in Q1 games. I guess the computers really like their 7-1 Q2 record.

If you compare their Q1/2 record (9-8 assuming they lose to Kentucky) to ours (9-6) AND we have less losses, I have no idea how they are #5. Makes no sense.

 

[VeloClone]

I would hope that loss to UK would hurt Bama. They lost by 22 but it wasn't that close. Gave up 117.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I see Alabama is improving their resume by giving up 59 points in the first half to Kentucky!

Wonder how far they will fall in Kenpom!

It’s hard to give up 117 points as a high major team, especially a talented one

 

[Cydkar]

I wouldn’t go that far. But I also don’t understand why so many fans are defending our non-con. It was god awful.

But we are in a position to get a 2 or 3 seed so not sure it’s worth opening up that box again. But you can see directly with Kansas why planning a tougher non-con can be beneficial.

I just wanted people to know that I thought Jamie was being a ****. I like Jamie. I’m glad he’s ours. I also hated our non-con schedule with the passion of a white hot sun.
All is well now.

 

[Cydkar]

I would hope that loss to UK would hurt Bama. They lost by 22 but it wasn't that close. Gave up 117.

It will because of the margin. Losing on the road, close, would have been a different story.

 

[Cyowa 14]

It will because of the margin. Losing on the road, close, would have been a different story.

Their Ken pom defense went from 70 to 99 after today's game, holy hell!

 

[Cydkar]

Their Ken pom defense went from 70 to 99 after today's game, holy hell!

That’s because infinity was already taken by Iowa.

 

[mctallerton]

It’s hard to give up 117 points as a high major team, especially a talented one

Thankfully they were able to get the bonus points for keeping your opponent under 120

 

[CycloneErik]

Going to get 3 tough games in Maui more than likely, Iowa, and definitely a tougher big east team than DePaul. That's more than enough for the non con

This is probably right. If we added more, no more than one better opponent, really.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Going to get 3 tough games in Maui more than likely, Iowa, and definitely a tougher big east team than DePaul. That's more than enough for the non con

This season...

18 Big 12 games
3 "meh" Q2 games in Orlando (still should have won more of them)
1 very bad Big East game (DePaul)
1 Iowa (who obviously wasn't very good) at home
8 cupcakes

Next season...

20 Big 12 games (including Arizona at least once)
3 likely Q1 games against high-level teams on Maui
1 hopefully good Big East game (Marquette? UConn? Creighton?)
1 Iowa (will probably still suck) on the road
6 cupcakes

They don't need to swap out any cupcake games for the schedule to take a big step up.

 

[cycloneworld]

It will because of the margin. Losing on the road, close, would have been a different story.

We won by 7 and dropped 4 spots. They lost by 25 and dropped 1 spot.

I’m going to add Auburn to my WTF list now too. #7 in Net and #5 in KenPom with a 1-6 Quad 1 record. Iowa has more Q1 wins than Auburn.

Metrics love offense and Q2 victories I guess…

 

[NiceMarmot]

We won by 7 and dropped 4 spots. They lost by 25 and dropped 1 spot.

I’m going to add Auburn to my WTF list now too. #7 in Net and #5 in KenPom with a 1-6 Quad 1 record. Iowa has more Q1 wins than Auburn.

Metrics love offense and Q2 victories I guess…

People focus too much on the ranking and not enough on the number that actually makes up the ranking for Kenpom (AdjEM). NET functions the same way, we just can't see the actual calculation.

8 thru 12 here have basically been hovering around the +24 mark in AdjEM for a while now. We were favored by 19 points in Kenpom's model yesterday and only won by 7. That will hurt that Adjusted Efficiency Margin number. Alabama *only* dropped to 7, but before yesterday, they were above Tennessee and up in that +27 range. That loss dropped them all the way down to +25 and closer to the group ISU has been in. That's a big drop.



It isn't that complicated. Win by more than you're expected (or lose by less than you're expected), your AdjEM improves, win by less than you're expected (or get blown out), your AdjEM declines.

NET functions the same way; it has nothing to do with metrics loving offense more than defense or quad victories. The quads come from the NET, the NET doesn't come from the quads.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

People focus too much on the ranking and not enough on the number that actually makes up the ranking for Kenpom (AdjEM). NET functions the same way, we just can't see the actual calculation.

8 thru 12 here have basically been hovering around the +24 mark in AdjEM for a while now. We were favored by 19 points in Kenpom's model yesterday and only won by 7. That will hurt that Adjusted Efficiency Margin number. Alabama *only* dropped to 7, but before yesterday, they were above Tennessee and up in that +27 range. That loss dropped them all the way down to +25 and closer to the group ISU has been in. That's a big drop.

View attachment 124567

It isn't that complicated. Win by more than you're expected (or lose by less than you're expected), your AdjEM improves, win by less than you're expected (or get blown out), your AdjEM declines.

NET functions the same way; it has nothing to do with metrics loving offense more than defense or quad victories. The quads come from the NET, the NET doesn't come from the quads.

The NET formula absolutely weighs offensive efficiency into the formula.

 

[cycloneworld]

People focus too much on the ranking and not enough on the number that actually makes up the ranking for Kenpom (AdjEM). NET functions the same way, we just can't see the actual calculation.

8 thru 12 here have basically been hovering around the +24 mark in AdjEM for a while now. We were favored by 19 points in Kenpom's model yesterday and only won by 7. That will hurt that Adjusted Efficiency Margin number. Alabama *only* dropped to 7, but before yesterday, they were above Tennessee and up in that +27 range. That loss dropped them all the way down to +25 and closer to the group ISU has been in. That's a big drop.

View attachment 124567

It isn't that complicated. Win by more than you're expected (or lose by less than you're expected), your AdjEM improves, win by less than you're expected (or get blown out), your AdjEM declines.

NET functions the same way; it has nothing to do with metrics loving offense more than defense or quad victories. The quads come from the NET, the NET doesn't come from the quads.

I understand the basics of how it works. I’m saying it’s dumb to rely only on metrics. End results should matter more than what a computer thinks you should win by. Should we add “cover the spread” as a metric? Most people would say no.

I get that metrics aren’t the only thing used but people tend to over use them, in my opinion. At some point, especially this late in the season, who you beat should matter more than how you win.

The inconsistency bothers me too. Using metrics to justify Alabama or Auburn as a 2-seed and then ignoring Kansas’ metric to also make them a 2-seed doesn’t make sense.

 

[Cydkar]

We won by 7 and dropped 4 spots. They lost by 25 and dropped 1 spot.

I’m going to add Auburn to my WTF list now too. #7 in Net and #5 in KenPom with a 1-6 Quad 1 record. Iowa has more Q1 wins than Auburn.

Metrics love offense and Q2 victories I guess…

Other games with teams played in the past happened yesterday, as well. This isn't a vacuum.
Where we are ranked in NET with respect to Auburn is irrelevant.

 

[NiceMarmot]

The NET formula absolutely weighs offensive efficiency into the formula.

Of course, but it also weight defensive efficiency into the formula, and there's absolutely zero evidence that it weighs offense more than defense. That would be incredibly illogical.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Still think Palm is a quack, but I like where he's got us right now: 3-seed Omaha/Midwest. Near dream scenario for us.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Of course, but it also weight defensive efficiency into the formula, and there's absolutely zero evidence that it weighs offense more than defense. That would be incredibly illogical.

The formula is a big secret but it has become pretty obvious that it weighs offensive efficiency differently than defensive efficiency.

 

[ISUChippewa]

This season...

18 Big 12 games
3 "meh" games in Orlando (still should have won more of them)
1 very bad Big East game (DePaul)
1 Iowa at home (who obviously wasn't very good)
8 cupcakes

Next season...

20 Big 12 games (including Arizona at least once)
3 likely Q1 games against high-level teams on Maui
1 hopefully good Big East game (Marquette? UConn? Creighton?)
1 Iowa (will probably still suck) on the road
6 cupcakes

They don't need to swap out any cupcake games for the schedule to take a big step up.

On a related note, do we know yet how the Big 12 scheduling is going to look/work going forward? How many teams will we have a traditional round robin schedule with? How many will be either home or away?

 

[Bader]

On a related note, do we know yet how the Big 12 scheduling is going to look/work going forward? How many teams will we have a traditional round robin schedule with? How many will be either home or away?

I cannot imagine basketball is anything but play all 15 teams once and 5 of those teams twice. The conference has shown no interest in having protected matchups so I doubt that starts now. I’m sure it’ll be rotate the 15 teams through every 3 years