Heard announcers talking about how a 2/3 really don't matter, as you will be playing each other anyway if the seeding holds, and so I don't really care (though I'd love to see ISU stay there so that we avoid a 1 as long as possible).
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Wait is this showing the Marquette that UConn took to the woodshed today is ahead of us? Yeah I doubt that.
I don't think being seeded #1 vs. #2 vs. even #3 matters all that much, it's all about the region/venues and who else is in it. The bullsh** in 2000 for example was not that we should have been the #1 seed in the Midwest and MSU should have been the #2 seed, either way you end up playing the same team in the regional final most likely. It was that we had to play them on essentially their home floor in the 4th round when we were arguably the best team in the country.
Look at our metrics vs everyone else's at the 3 seed. This is an outrage!
We've gone around in circles on this and we probably won't agree but Kansas and Baylor have marquee non-con wins and that is why they're ranked higher.
The committee isn't, and shouldn't be, solely based on metrics and numbers. Teams should get credit for scheduling aggressively and rewarded for winning those games.
The committee isn't, and shouldn't be, solely based on metrics and numbers. Teams should get credit for scheduling aggressively and rewarded for winning those games.
No blue blood is going to sign up to come play a non-con road game in Hilton. I'm sure they'd be happy to have us come to their building though.
I think most of us understand that, but leading the toughest conference should get you some merit, as well.
The committee is full of human beings making decisions not only on analytics, but eye test to a degree. Kansas isn’t a 2 seed, right now, and Iowa State looks to be the better team.
The seeds will all shake out in the end, though.
Continue to gain a bit on Houston, as others have said Monday will be huge.
Do they share the method behind this? I would think that the probability for all teams combined should equal 1? Not the case here. I think if you were to ask me to 'wing it' I would say:
Houston - 60%
ISU -20%
Baylor - 10%
Kansas - 10%
We play in the toughest conference that exists by far. That more than outweighs anything in the noncon. We have played 10 games against quad 1, which is up there with just about anyone else
The committee isn't supposed to be looking just at the first 13 games or so and be assigning special weight to them. That's why the metrics are better at this- they look at the whole schedule holistically and assign value from there based on our performance against that.
Shared titles exist. This appears to factor that in, so chances can add up to more than 1 since in theory we could share the title.
Yeah, as @alarson mentioned, they used the shared percentages. So will add up to over 100% for each seed.
It would be really funny if KU doesn't make the top 4 seeds and has to play on Wed.
KU doesn't care about the Big 12 tournament. Just ask them.
Baylor has a tough run to finish the season:
@ BYU
UH
@TCU
KU
UT
@Tech
@ BYU
UH
@TCU
KU
UT
@Tech
Even if we lose tomorrow we can still be in pretty good shape to at least share the title, we could feasibly win out with our only remaining road games at UCF and the Mildcats, and Houston would have to do that too to avoid a tie. Houston still has to go to Baylor and Oklahoma and still has to play KU at home.
Call me a downer if you want but I really don't care about winning the Big 12. It's a nice commendation but I started the year thinking 10+ Big 12 wins would be great and that remains my benchmark, I won't be disappointed if we don't achieve something that no one had on their radar in November. I agree with Coach Bill Self that the conference title is less meaningful when the schedules aren't balanced.
Call me a downer if you want but I really don't care about winning the Big 12. It's a nice commendation but I started the year thinking 10+ Big 12 wins would be great and that remains my benchmark, I won't be disappointed if we don't achieve something that no one had on their radar in November. I agree with Coach Bill Self that the conference title is less meaningful when the schedules aren't balanced.
Iowa State has also played as many Q4 games as Baylor and Kansas combined.
If league schedules are approximately equal, and they are, the holistic schedule matters and that includes the games that happened before January 1.
In the end, win a bunch of games on the way out here and it'll all take care of itself.