Looked deeper at the stats of their 3 conf games (Cincy, at Bay, at UCF).
They turned it over a lot- 18, 14, 13 in those three games. That's a big key for ISU to win.
vs Cincy, they shot 13 of 46(!) from 3; 8 of 18 from 2.
at Baylor, they shot 9 of 24 from 3; 17 of 29 from 2.
at UCF, they shot 9 of 26 from 3; 12 of 26 from 2.
Defensively, Cincy & Baylor shot about 43%, UCF only 29% (at home, yeesh, how did these guys beat Kansas?). So maybe that 7th rated defense is inflated from beating up on bad teams?
To me it's a toss up game. There's a path for either team to win, for sure. BYU - shoot well, don't turn it over, home court advantage. For the Clones, turn BYU over a lot and wear them down in the paint, let them shoot 3s and hope they miss enough they can't keep up.
I think the Iowa comp is decent - but with far better athletes, and they can at least spell 'defense'.