Big ten doesn’t need to get into Florida. The school presidents don’t want to be involved with that state and the top programs already recruit Florida very well. Also no guarantee the SEC takes them because they don’t need to.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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I have tough time following the logic on FSU leaving the ACC, but Greg Flugaur discussed AT LENGTH in a couple podcasts over last 24 hours. Its a tough listen because it's basically 3hours of podcasts built on speculation.
The speculation is that FSU is approaching 2 ways:
A lot of Flugaur's podcast yesterday dealt with rumor of FSU to Big10. The mechanics would require that the Big10 also add Washington & Oregon to help make adding FSU financially possible. I was't following the structure 100%, but basically if Big10 can add Pac12 schools at big discount to their media value, then they could use that money to subsidize FSU to Big10. If I understood correctly:
The speculation is that FSU is approaching 2 ways:
- FSU will pull out of ACC by August 15 so that they can join either Big10 or SEC for 2024 season.
- FSU is going to litigate the GOR.
A lot of Flugaur's podcast yesterday dealt with rumor of FSU to Big10. The mechanics would require that the Big10 also add Washington & Oregon to help make adding FSU financially possible. I was't following the structure 100%, but basically if Big10 can add Pac12 schools at big discount to their media value, then they could use that money to subsidize FSU to Big10. If I understood correctly:
- Let's say the Ducks & Husky's are worth $100M to Big10 from its media partners. They could give the Ducks & Husky's $35M each. The Big10 would "keep" $30.
- FSU in the Big10 would require that FSU home game media rights remain with ACC and would be televised by ESPN. ESPN would owe the ACC $17M for those games. My speculation: would ESPN love that because ESPN advertising rates would support closer to $60-65M the SEC & Big10 media payouts.
- What I don't follow is: can the Big10 funnel $30M they kept from adding ORWA to FSU and call it something other than media rights? A forgivable loan, appearance fee, NIL payout, etc. Plus could the Big10 goose that $30M because FSU's 4-5 Big10 road games have premium value to the Big10? Would FOX, CBS and NBC be willing to add let's say $10M million a year for the opportunity to have FSU content?
- Why would they rollover and let FSU manipulate the GOR? Afterall ESPN is only paying $17M per school to ACC until 2036? Are they neutral because any schools that leave the ACC for the Big10 or SEC, both FOX & ESPN will be able to charge much higher ad rates to televise FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, etc. games in the Big10/SEC vs. ACC.
- Is there an advantage to FSU (and Clemson) jumping to the Big10 (a FOX property) vs. to SEC (an ESPN property which is same as ACC)?
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I think this is the key premise.
They (UW and Oregon) may be worth as much as Wis, NW, Iowa, etc. BUT does Fox need to pay that much for them now?
Fox could get them cheaper if they are part of the Big 12 (albeit sharing with ESPN). They could get them a lot cheaper by jumping into the PAC negotiations.
Even if FSU goes nuclear, I think UW and Oregon may need to wait until the next round. (Just my opinion).
Personally, I think Oregon would prefer to be in the SEC (recruiting) and Washington would prefer to be in the Big 10 (perceived academic excellence). They can wish all they want.
There's a great point here. I don't think people truly understand what BYU can be now that they've got stability and a larger budget. They've been really successful over time and can take it to a whole other level. If they win consistently, the amount of donations and other income they can access are damn near infinite.
Yeah. But I would be willing to bet they are going to be annoying as hell.
It goes a step further. There are a lot of podcasts that don't involve journalism, but folks who comment/speculate on what mainstream journalist write. Bascially, the equivalent of message board poster with a bigger platform.
We'll see. I've never been treated better as a visiting fan than I was in Provo.
Granted, they've got their issues but they're going to end up being a super add.
So there's a good chance Arizona State and Utah will end up joining the Big 12 after all, but only because they have no other acceptable option. They love to look down their noses at the Big 12 and they've been very vocal about it.
I say screw them. I'd rather we rent OR and WA for the next several years or we stand pat at 14 than take those two arrogant schools. Let them make $8/million per year on the MWC.
I say screw them. I'd rather we rent OR and WA for the next several years or we stand pat at 14 than take those two arrogant schools. Let them make $8/million per year on the MWC.
I think there might be a caveat in this thinking. ESPN owning the SEC package could then negotiate a stock trade of sorts. Which doesn't seem doable. Now ACC to the B1G is a whole other matter, but then ESPN would have to be very careful about their SEC preferences valuation. Would, IMO, be too sticky.
I have a feeling unless the SEC/Big Ten take virtually ever program in Texas (they wouldn't) that this "#3" conference we're building is always going to have teams inside and outside of Texas that rise up and shock the "haves" in terms of budget. We'll see if we can have a smaller effect in states like FLA, PA and Ohio long term but I'm pretty sure if it being true with Texas football.
I'm not saying BYU is the program to benefit from that, they'll benefit in other ways kind of being a revved up version of what they already were...but there's going to be some other Big 12 teams that elevate their stature with this change just like some SEC programs are going to lose a little luster by constantly finishing worse than 5th place. Big Ten programs can't really lose any luster because only 4-5 of them out of 16 really had any shine to begin with, it's never been a deep conference and UCLA tagging along with USC will keep that going. On any given year the middle teams of Big 12 would have outranked the middle teams of Big Ten (by computer data), I don't expect that to change in part from the strong Texas presence. SEC is different thing entirely.
FSU would basically be betting that whatever settlement they end paying would be substantially less than the approximate 400-500 million dollars in additional revenue they would be getting from the SEC or Big 10 through the end of the ACC media deal in 2036 (I think).
I've actually always been a huge fan of their play on the field since the turn of the century.
I'd have easily voted them outright national champion the year they went undefeated under Urban Meyer. In many ways it's the statistically second most dominant team in college football history and if they could have gotten into a playoff format I think they'd have crushed the big conference teams. They were 3-4 years ahead of where the rest of college football was. In my opinion they have a more legit claim to a national championship than BYU's one "NC".
But their fans...ugh. They really deserve a slap of cold hard reality. They may get it.
Get AZ/Utah/Colorado market with AZ/BYU/Buffs.
Get vastly larger population states like PA, Virginia and maybe a few others a few years down the road instead of doubling up mountain regions.
ASU/Utah say they want that, give it to them. Everybody wins.
That decision has to be mutual. I don’t know that the Big12 extends those offers right now.
But if we are moving to a P2, winning the brand battle will mean more TV rights money. Right now the Big10/SEC are basically even in the $60-65M range. Plus, if the Big10 was willing to add just USC/UCLA, that tells me being a national conference is their primary goal.
Meanwhile, the SEC is content being a regional conference.
Lastly, BTN carriage fees have been a big push for recent Big10 expansion with Rutgers (NY), Maryland (DC) and USC/UCLA (LA). Why wouldn't the Big10 continue that strategic push and develop a presence in Florida? Florida = Print More Big10 Money!
According to common sense. Just said there's a good chance, not that it's gonna happen for sure
I guess I’m surprised so many agree with your take…no offense. Colorado certainly isn’t one of the most valuable Pac12 schools. They were the piece we were most likely to get. If they don’t make the house fall and net us another better piece, I think it’s reasonable to have wondered if the Big 12 should have waited. (Note that I don’t think this will be an issue.). If we were to end up with a G5 school, you’ve possibly watered down the league with two bottom half teams (a la the Big 10 adding Maryland and Rutgers). You can’t tell me they wouldn’t like those spots back. Washington and Oregon would clearly be better adds.
What I’ve learned through all this realignment is that common sense doesn’t mean a god damn thing.
I put just about zero stock in the ACC exit rumors. FSU might try something desperate, but the risk/reward doesn't make sense for conferences and networks. None of the non-ND schools left add enough value to the existing P2. If people want to play internet lawyer though, the ACC GOR and its extension are reportedly out there. The constitution and bylaws too if you want to go crazy. The extension seems to just change the end date, so I'm not sure that provides much wiggle room.
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