Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Honestly, I think I’m revisiting my initial thoughts on this. There are some major logistical hurdles that the PAC-12 would have to overcome to survive this round. I’m not sure if there is a viable path forward through the remnants.

For example:


When all is said and done, maybe they’ll just do a double round robin for football.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Gorm
A few random thoughts:

  • Huge props to the remaining Big12 schools for basically putting the conference first before their own aspirations/needs and realizing having a seat at the table is the goal.
  • Huge props to BY for negotiating a deal and proving the marketability for the remaining schools and newcomers.
  • We did get a little luck in that OuT deciding to jump ship a year before USCLA did. Even though we were laughed at by pretty much everyone outside the Big12, it gave us a year to come up with a plan while the PAC12 thought everything was gravy. Had it been the other way around, the PAC12 likely adds SDSU/BYU and poaches Tech/Okie st ect (or whoever you want from the Big12) and the Big12 crumbles.
  • I hate this thing on the whole but glad ISU is on the secure side. I will really miss the round robin scheduling.
  • It'll be interesting to see what OU fans think in 5-8 years when they aren't winning 10-11 games a year anymore....sure their school is raking in money but I doubt that means they'll lower prices for fans. How long are fans going to be ponying up for this situation?
 
F it. Go big.

The PAC is already dead and the Big 12 killed it. Finish the job.

Add Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Washington and UConn and be the clearest number three humanly possible.

I will never understand this boner for adding UConn. Yeah, they’re good at basketball - and yet it’s football that matters and nobody gives 2 ***** about UConn football. Plus UConn decreases every school’s take, whereas PAC 12 schools don’t.
 
I am not sure at all if adding 4 PAC teams makes sense. 2 might be the limit. In terms of value to ESPN/Fox (which is what matters), that one late game is decent. But that's it. The rest is meh and probably dilutive.

Adding 2 teams gives 9 more conference games and 4-5 noncons. If that is CU and AZ, you are basically getting a decent (not great) late game per week. That's probably enough to float 2 teams - my math says its ~6% lower than 31.7 but probably close enough to stay same.

Adding 4 teams gives 18 more conference games and 8-10 noncons. You get the same decent (not great) late game, but there isn't really a second spot for another decent (not great) late game. So now the value doesn't increase in proportion and it becomes more dilutive. My math shows this ~17% lower, and I don't think the TV folks would just eat that.

The caveat to this is Oregon. Oregon would bring more decent games in the regular season (since ranked often and branding), as well as probably a great noncon. My math with them shows the value goes UP about 10% over the current deal with 2 teams, and breakeven if adding 4 teams.

TLDR; I think the two most likely outcomes are:
1) Colorado and Arizona only
OR
2) Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, and #4

For the 4th team ASU is my guess. UW will wait for B1G. Utah is being a-holes, plus a 2nd team from Arizona (pop 7.5M) makes a lot more sense than a 2nd team from Utah (pop 3M)).
I feel like the Big12 needs at least 4 Pac schools to rotate with BYU to fill ESPN's after dark spot. Would also seem like ESPN would want the after dark game to match-up a current Big12 school vs. a Pac school as much as possible to spike ratings.

FOX still has timeslots available from it's current Pac12 deal on Sat at 3 or 7pm. Seems like that would be a great balance of linear and ESPN. If the Big12 grows by 6, then maybe exploring Amazon, Apple, NBC/Universal comes into play.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tzjung
Why does CU fit culturally and not Cal. Would you say CU and Cal are closer than CU and ISU? And why does culture of the school matter? And would the B12 have taken USC, if so how to they match culturally?

Cal has more athletic history than ISU and most any other B12 team.

Please expand on what a monetary fit is. I have no idea.

Edit: Is BU a cultural fit to the B12 and why?
Absolutely can give more detail

Monetarily: I don’t believe Fox would agree to increase the payouts pro rata for Cal like they have with CU and potentially others. I fully admit I could be wrong on that.

Athletically: Cal is poor in football and basketball. I can’t necessarily speak to their other sports, but they haven’t been competitive in the two main ones in 10+ years. In football they are 66-84 since 2010. In basketball their last tourney appearance was 2016 and last sweet 16 was 1997. I’d say that’s probably on par with ISU athletically. But if the tables were turned here, I don’t think ISU would be considered for P12 membership unfortunately

Culturally is tough to explain, and anecdotal, but I’ve worked with several Berkeley grads and CU grads. Berkeley is just a different world than the Midwest. Well beyond your typical liberal campus environment, even for a liberal campus like Boulder. I’m not saying that’s bad, and don’t want to cave the topic. I’m not using liberal for a political discussion, just as a descriptor. I’m saying the Big 12’s priorities on football and Cal’s priorities, vision and goals won’t align. This is a student body/alumni that had a massive, 2 year tree sit-in over the removal of a grove of oak trees to build an athletic facility in 2008. That is an example of how culturally the school and conference don’t align
 


Take this one with a grain of salt


Combine that with the rumors last night that the Big 12 was looking beyond 4 corners… we might actually be looking at 4 PAC 12 schools instead of 2.

Not to mention it makes all kinds of sense because it sounds like to me Arizona has been trying to find any excuse to jump for more than a year now.
 
Absolutely can give more detail

Monetarily: I don’t believe Fox would agree to increase the payouts pro rats for Cal like they have with CU and potentially others. I fully admit I be wrong on that

Athletically: Cal is poor in football and basketball. I can’t necessarily speak to their other sports, but they haven’t been competitive in the two main ones in 10+ years. In football they are 66-84 since 2010. In basketball their last tourney appearance was 2016 and last sweet 16 was 1997. I’d say that’s probably on par with ISU athletically. But if the tables were turned here, I don’t think ISU would be considered for P12 membership unfortunately

Culturally is tough to explain, and anecdotal, but I’ve worked with several Berkeley grads and CU grads. Berkeley is just a different world than the Midwest. Well beyond your typical liberal campus environment, even for a liberal campus like Boulder. I’m not saying that’s bad, and don’t want to cave the topic. I’m not using liberal for a political discussion, just as a descriptor. I’m saying because if that the Big 12’s priorities on football and Cal’s priorities, vision and goals won’t align. This is a study body/alumni that had a massive, 2 year tree sit-in over the removal of a grove of oak trees to build an athletic facility in 2008. That is an example of how culturally the school and conference don’t align

My experiences with Cal grads were the best. Coolest ******* people I've ever met.
 
Cultural fit, to a large extent is overblown, imo. If cultural fit mattered, we'd be going after Wazzu hard. They have a good fanbase and a school that cares about the football team. I actually wished we lived in a world where that was the valuable part. It's not though, it's what value do you have in the TV market.

Then again, if we lived in that world, it's doubtful any conference would be in the situation they are now. Hell, it would just be amazing if playing good football even mattered. I'm a pretty big college football fan, but one conference in particular is so watered down with bad football teams, most of their games are unwatchable and they've got the biggest TV contract out there.
The cultural angle seems emotional, ergo illogical. And isn’t a thing for those making decisions. Some talked about 600lb gorillas at the state level… TX and BU come to mind, as well as OK for OSU. And the only one successful of the three was BU. And those states have different responsibilities than anything we talk about in regards to college athletics.

We are on a site with fanatics in its name… and the need to be culturally aligned fits the name, cause that isn’t reality.

If School X of Y culture can get full shares with an offer from a conference that conference isn’t looking at culture.
 
If AZ leaves, there’s no reason to offer anyone else other than OU and UW. The PAC is dead. Grab the best 4 and let the rest figure out a restructured MWC. Utah and ASU were fine if OuW went to the Big10. But they’re not needed any longer.
Yep patience once the B12 hit #14. You can wait our ORE/UW and if they balk then the ACC schools will be calling soon enough.
 
7txgx2.jpg
 
My experiences with Cal grads were the best. Coolest ******* people I've ever met.
Oh yeah. I’m not saying they’re bad people. Just that they were different types of people than the CU grads. In my anecdotal experience.

Given where the Big 12 is, it’s not an alumni group that will prioritize what the Big 12 needs it’s institutions to prioritize
 
Brett answered to @DustyDvoracek & @dannykanell on #DDSXM. pic.twitter.com/BM7YTy2g1e
— College Sports on SiriusXM (@SXMCollege) July 27, 2023
“The Big 12 is going to add another school before 2024,” McMurphy told College Sports on SiriusXM. “They will have 14 teams. Now, who the 14th team is going to be? That’s not so simple.”

McMurphy then went into the options that the Big 12 has to get to an even number. The first, and most obvious choice, is to add another Pac-12 school.

“Their first choice is to get another team from the Pac-12,” McMurphy says. “Obviously, Arizona is the most likely candidate. Is there an agreement? Is it a done deal? Absolutely not. Arizona State and Utah also could be possibilities, but both of those schools have been lukewarm at best about leaving the Pac-12. The question is, how does everybody’s mindset change now that Colorado is gone? It’s easy to say we’re all committed when there’s 10 of you there, but then when there’s nine, how much is that commitment still there? We’ll have to find out.”

If Brett Yormark and Co. can’t get another Pac-12 school to jump ship, they’ll turn to the Group of Five schools, but that has a caveat as well.

“If the Big 12 cannot get a 14th member from the Pac-12, then they will add a Group of Five school, McMurhy continues. “Which Group of Five school? That also is unknown. There’s a handful of schools out there that they would talk to. Obviously, a number of Group of Five schools have issues with their Grant of Rights. Anybody leaving the Mountain West has to pay $34M. I don’t think they would be able to do that. San Diego State flat out said, ‘We can’t pay $34M to go to the Pac-12 with less than one year’s notice.’ Would anybody in the Mountain West be able to do that financially? I don’t think so. UConn has been mentioned. They’ve got a $30M exit fee. Any teams from the American would have to pay in excess of $10M and would have to negotiate that number.”

Either way, the Big 12 isn’t going to play an athletic year with 13 schools. It’s a scheduling nightmare, and quite frankly, the conference seems to have viable options ahead of 2024.

“I am fairly confident that the Big 12 will have at least 14 teams, possibly 16,” McMurphy says. “In a perfect world, if they could get Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah, they would take all of them and get to 16 and stop. But, they will not play the 2024 season with an odd number of teams, whether it’s 14 or 16. The unknown is if that will be another Pac-12 addition or additions, or a Group of Five to get to that even number.”
 
Are those the names of the two divisions?

Tractors division:
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas St.
Colorado (Tegredy Farms)
UCF
West Virginia
Cincinnati

Tacos division:
Texas Tech
Arizona
TCU
Baylor
Houston
OKie St.
BYU (Ortega gringo Tuesdays)

Clarified some details
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron